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Devon Shire
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Author of the value investing newsletter detailing the formation of the "Punch Card Portfolio" ( Devon Shire is an accountant and an investor with 15 years experience managing a private portfolio. Devon Shire's preferred portfolio management... More
My company:
Canadian Value Investing
My blog:
Canadian Value Investing
My book:
CVI - Punch Card Portfolio
  • Update to 2010 ATP Production Outlook 1 comment
    Mar 24, 2010 12:34 PM | about stocks: ATPAQ

    With yesterday's presentation slides indicating that the 2 additional Canyon Express wells are on production I feel that we can conclude that this huge production ramp that I've been writing about for months is now officially and well under way.

    Enter year at 13,600 BOE per day

    Late January - Add 4,600 per day Gomez #4
    Early March - Add 2,600 per day at Canyon Express
    This week - Add another 2,600 per day at Canyon Express

    Current pre Telemark - Roughly 23,000 BOE per day

    So up 73% before Telemark even starts

    Telemark - Roughly 30,000 BOE per day that will be fully on maybe in Q3 but certainly in Q4.

    So we have 23,000 pre-Telemark plus 30,000 Telemark

    That is 53,000 BOE per day or 3.89x the Q4 2009 rate

    And that EXCLUDES the following:

    1) A well being drilled at Canyon Express in Q2 (per recent presentation)
    2) Gomez well MC711 #9 in Q4
    3) Gomez well MC711 #10 early 2011
    4) Gomez MC754 just acquired another 50% interest in this and the well is drilled already and is 1500 feet from the Innovator, could be Q4
    5) Gomez MC710 - mirror image of 711 ATP mentioned they could be out there as early as Q4 this year

    The actual production won't match this exactly of course, but there isn't much doubt that ATP will be adding material amounts of production every quarter in 2010 with an exit rate that is multiples of 2009.

    Next up.  Telemark production.  Could be this week.

    Exciting time to be an ATP shareholder, with the share price yet to realize this production ramp, and 20% of the float short and needing to cover in front of it.

    Disclosure: Long ATPG
    Stocks: ATPAQ
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    How much that equates to earnings.....per quarter going forward.
    25 Mar 2010, 05:16 PM Reply Like
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