Recently gas prices have been on a tear tipping the scales at $112 for a barrel of crude oil. The increase in price has been largely in part due to a cost-pull inflationary scenario. The combination of instability in the middle east as well as a dearth of new successful offshore ventures has put an increased strain on the current supply of oil. In addition oil companies recognize that looking forward there is not much hope that a large supply of oil will be discovered in the near future. The question is, is this price increase sustainable?
One reason consumers should be wary of oil is inevitable inflation. The effects of quantitative easing have been clear on unemployment dipping it below 9%, but the CPI has yet to adjust. In the chart above you can see the last three fiscal years recorded CPI increases of 0.1%, 2.7%, 1.5%. With the $900 billion dollar bond buying stimulus program to finish in the third quarter, and the deficit climbing towards 15 trillion the reverberations will be felt. Although the weakening dollar has kept input costs low as well as allowed for easy exporting, the end of quantitative easing will stifle profits. In a few months as gas prices begin to adjust to inflation I believe that alternative energy will gain footing. Obviously uranium took a big hit after the unfortunate set of events in Japan, but did the public overreact? Cameco Corporation (CCJ) looks to double their Uranium output by 2018. A recent Chinese halt on nuclear plants might hold Cameco's stock for the time being. A great alternative is the ETF URA, which provides exposure to the global uranium market. As companies continue to innovate and create more cost and energy efficient solutions gas will become far less important. For the time being oil may dominate the energy market, but keep your eyes open. Sustainable alternative energy is dangerously close to becoming a reality.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
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One reason consumers should be wary of oil is inevitable inflation. The effects of quantitative easing have been clear on unemployment dipping it below 9%, but the CPI has yet to adjust. In the chart above you can see the last three fiscal years recorded CPI increases of 0.1%, 2.7%, 1.5%. With the $900 billion dollar bond buying stimulus program to finish in the third quarter, and the deficit climbing towards 15 trillion the reverberations will be felt. Although the weakening dollar has kept input costs low as well as allowed for easy exporting, the end of quantitative easing will stifle profits. In a few months as gas prices begin to adjust to inflation I believe that alternative energy will gain footing. Obviously uranium took a big hit after the unfortunate set of events in Japan, but did the public overreact? Cameco Corporation (CCJ) looks to double their Uranium output by 2018. A recent Chinese halt on nuclear plants might hold Cameco's stock for the time being. A great alternative is the ETF URA, which provides exposure to the global uranium market. As companies continue to innovate and create more cost and energy efficient solutions gas will become far less important. For the time being oil may dominate the energy market, but keep your eyes open. Sustainable alternative energy is dangerously close to becoming a reality.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.
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