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Macro Strategist
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MacroStrategist is a long/short investment analyst based in New York.
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Emerging Markets Macro Strategy
  • Commodity Strategy: Model Trade of the Week Update [Short Euribor and German Bonds vs Long U.S. Equity Futures] 0 comments
    Aug 16, 2011 7:40 AM | about stocks: GLD, RSX, ERX, USO, UST, SPY, EEM, ERUS


    Trade Open: August 12, 2011
    Trade Close: August 15, 2011

    Net absolute dv01 (if all positions were at profit) = -$7.3k, since they are not perfect long/short combinations.

    Trade parameters:

    $280k margin cash

    $29 mln notional + fx trade

    Stop and limit orders, alternatively OCO (one cancels/initiate another) to cut losses quicker.

    3 Day P&L: $50K

    Cash Margin Used: $280K

    3 Day Net Return: 18%

    Strategy Description – Market (August 12) is set to stabilize today:



    ·         Short Euribor 3 month future – expectation that liquidity will improve

    ·         Short USD, Long Euro – on receding volatility, U.S. is relatively better than Europe

    ·         Short Euro Schatz futures (Here’s thinking that European markets should decrease appetite for short-duration (1.75-2.25 years) German Sovereign debt on positive equity markets in Europe

    ·         Short 10 year UST



    ·         Long SPX and Dow Jones Spet 11 futures (U.S. is relatively better than Europe)


    Out of these bets, 10 year UST lost some cash as a directional “short on top” bet but still is an effective hedge. We still expect that USTs should sell off after record high last week.

    Strategy P&L:
    Long Eur/Short USD @1.4268 Close @1.4300, $10 mln notional, @$32K profit
    Long Emini SPX @1,174 Close @1,184, 10 Contracts, @$5K profit
    Long Dow Jones Emini @11,143
    Close@11,314, 10 contracts, @$8k profit

    Short Euribor 3 Mo @98.76 Close @98.715, 100 contracts @$14k profit
    Short Euro Schatz  @109.33 Close @109.345, 100 contracts @-$4 loss
    Short 10 year UST @129'11 Close @129'16, 30 contracts @-$5k loss



    Emini SPX 59K notional x 10 contracts = $590k notional

    Euribor EUR246K x 100 = EUR24  mln notional = $16.6 mln

    Euro Schatz Bonds Eur109K c 100 contracts = eur 10.9 mln notional = $7.6 mln.

    Dow Jones future $56k x 10 =contracts = $560K notional

    10 YR UST $129.5K x 30 = $3.9mln notional

    Total: $29 mln notional


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