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Vince Martin
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As a Senior Editor on the SA Pro Content Team, my responsibility is to identify the best possible content for the Pro platform, manage existing contributors and develop new ones for that content, and work with other departments to make the Pro platform a success. I was a contributor to Seeking... More
  • The Golden Cross And The Super Bowl 2 comments
    Feb 1, 2012 3:54 AM
    From CNBC.com on Tuesday:

    Stocks formed the much-heralded "golden cross" on Tuesday, but traders waited until the market's actually closed before confirming it.
    The so-called golden cross - which occurs when the the 50-day moving average of the S&P 500 rises above the 200-day moving average-is considered a long-term bullish signal.
    [snip]
    Birinyi Associates analyst Kevin Pleines said his analysis shows that when the 50-day crossed the 200-day in the 26 instances since 1962, the market was higher six months later 81 percent of the time..."We're pretty skeptical on a lot of the aspects of technical analysis and technical signals. We took this look back, and looked at it historically, and historically it is a pretty reliable indicator. The 50-day rising is a good sign of increasing momentum, and I think 81 percent is pretty reliable," Pleines said.

    Also on Tuesday, on CNBC.com:

    If the so-called Super Bowl Indicator holds true this year-like it has almost 80 percent of the time-then stock investors should be rooting for a New York Giants victory over the New England Patriots this Sunday...Historically, the indicator (triggered when the NFC or an original NFL team wins) has been correct 35 of the last 45 years, or 78 percent of the time on the S&P 500, on a total return basis, according to [Howard] Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst, Standard & Poor's.

    So the Golden Cross is 22 for 26 -- a supposedly important technical indictor: 81 percent bullish. The Super Bowl winner -- a clearly inane, completely irrelevant indicator -- is 35 for 45: 78 percent bullish. Let's back off the "Golden Cross" stuff this week, shall we?

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Comments (2)
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  • mooowi
    , contributor
    Comments (62) | Send Message
     
    The placebo effect is a very real thing in life my friend. I do not agree with you.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Vince Martin
    , contributor
    Comments (619) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » So are small sample sizes, and people failing to understand the difference between correlation and causation.
    1 Feb 2012, 01:23 PM Reply Like
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