If you read this blog or listen to my podcast on a regular basis, you know that I don’t consider myself a technician. But that doesn’t mean I don’t pay attention to technical levels—you have to take information from multiple places in order to make the best decisions. So to close out the first full trading week of 2012, I’m going to go over a couple of the technical levels I’m watching.
First, gold. It’s been holding steady around 1625 for the last day or two, but what I want to see is for it to hold above 1620 on a weekly basis. I think there’s still a lot of upside, but we might do work in the 1600-1650 range for a while. We are now at a point where gold has to be bought on dips like that bear trap we saw last week—with currencies being debased around the world, I think gold could find ourselves as high as the 2100-2200 range this year.
I’ve also been watching the S&P 500, waiting for it to give me some confirmation. I think that if we can settle above 1281 on a weekly basis (that’s on the March futures contract folks, not the cash) then we are technically breaking out. That’s when I think the nonbelievers will rush in and start chasing. And that’s when yours truly will start selling it to them. I might miss the top, but no one ever went broke taking profits.
If you’re trading grains (specifically corn) and missed today’s show, you’re going to want to download the podcast to hear Howard Marella of Index Futures Group talk about the trade he’s got on, plus what he thinks is on the horizon for the commodities markets over the next few months. Wonderful stuff!