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Sameer Advani
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I'm an Engineer, Entrepreneur and Investor.
  • Real Historical Copper Price 2 comments
    May 30, 2011 8:37 PM | about stocks: JJC, COPX, FCX, SCCO

    Much is made of today’s record copper prices, without any analysis of history.  The chart below shows the average annual copper price going back to 1900, adjusted to 2010 dollars.  The annual average peaked in 1907 at $10,350 per ton.  The long run 110 year average is $5,150 per ton.  Mean reversion is much talked about in equity markets.  I don’t see why copper prices will not revert to their long run average.  From 1900 to today, global copper production has kept up with demand, and price has always responded accordingly.  The bullish case for copper all rests on China’s increasing demand.  If that demand fails to increase, I don’t see why copper prices would remain at this level….they never have in the past 110 years.

    Real Historical Average Annual Cu Price

    Stocks: JJC, COPX, FCX, SCCO
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    There are many reasons why the price may remain at this level, or go higher. Just one would be that if you take a close look at the chart you see that when there was a spike in prices between 1950-1960. Could this have anything to do with what was going on financially at the time in the US? Could the recent rise of the price be another sign of something similar about to happen?


    The price of metals is so manipulated over the last 50 years that you really must read between the lines, not just read the stats off the page as printed. However, thanks for finding the graph, as its difficult to find historic copper graphs.
    11 Mar 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Sameer Advani
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    Author’s reply » Yes, it's a massively manipulated market for copper. The data is from the USGS website, if you want I can send you the raw data.
    17 Mar 2013, 10:25 PM Reply Like
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