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Chris Bersaw
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Spent my entire career on the trading floor of major futures exchange experiencing price discovery up close and quite personal and know first hand just how irrational these markets can be. Initially in futures, branched into the world of options trading learning various options strategies that... More
  • Commodity Currents: Fasten The Seatbelts Friday.  0 comments
    Nov 9, 2012 10:36 PM

    The S&P500 futures challenged their 200day average at 1369.50 for first time since June bouncing on likely short-covering after buyers emerged allowing prices to recover and close over that key support level so have to see if more buyers return or will sellers take prices lower while the Nasdaq 100 which has been the leader of losses also reversed direction but has a way to go before challenging a resistance area around 2655. 10yr Treasuries advanced within sight of new contract highs north of 134-16 but reversed direction in the usual inverse reaction to equities but remaining far over support at 133-05. The Dollar continues higher climbing over another hurdle this time 80.875 looking for 81.335 with more resistance at 81.500 but with buyers starting to notice could see a challenge of higher pries before support is challenged which continues to pressure the currencies like the Euro and Loonie but not the Yen remaining the exception although it was rejected at 1.2648 so see if it can close back under 1.2553. Despite the resurgent greenback Gold continues to advance beyond 1718.40 but presently stalled under 1741.80 although suspect this might be temporary and pullbacks should be bought while Silver continues higher as well now over 31.115 looking for 33.255 but an outside day in Copper takes prices in the other direction after being rejected from 3.4875 earlier on so have to see if this divergence continues. Buyers continue to flow into Crude supporting when prices held 84.00 to send oil back over 86.00 and as long as that level holds could see further appreciation namely to 87.67 although prefer to see a deeper pullback to 80.00 but sometimes things just don't happen the way we want while Natural gas continues to burn both sellers and buyers alike advancing on short-covering then falling on profit-taking now on top of the bottom challenging support of 3.482 within sight of 3.455 and can't rule out a trade to 3.400 after being turned away from 3.564 although the longer term outlook is favorable can't rule more downside before prices can make another challenge of 4.000. Hogs continue to wander higher after blowing through resistance around 76.000 earlier in the week now looking for 82.000 with solid support found at 78.725 offering a great area to buy should prices pull back and Cattle tries to hold gains struggling to stay over 125.550 while rejected from 126.150 for now upside gains will be difficult to come by. Two sided trade in Corn with prices rejected at 755 ending under 743 again looking like they are headed lower but so far no sell off yet with nearest support seen at 700 while Wheat which had been advancing of recent reversed lower now within reach of 877 but with more support under that level to check further downside but no such support for Jan Soybeans plunging under 1500, a level which had been supportive to find the 200dma at 1449 first time since June on a spike in volume so this pretty much crosses the T in top for the beans and we could easily see 1250 before this decline is over. Oats didn't do much still consolidating over 358 the lower end of its month long trading range with near term resistance seen at 370. Coffee buyers continue to sleep in as prices grind lower to new contract lows not even attempting to challenge 152.65 although sellers are not in a hurry to sell either so probably best to watch for now before trying to pick a bottom while new contract lows of 18.66 were rejected in Sugar suggests an eventual change of direction resulting in an outside day with prices touching 19.29 resistance at one point before pulling back and Cocoa fell under its 200dma at 2,350 but able to recover to end back over it as buyers support suggesting higher prices are likely but Orange Juice was squeezed lower falling back under 107.70 within reach of new contract lows after a failed rally attempt stalled at 110.30 although selling conviction remains lackluster so am looking for signs of a reversal and Cotton continues to take the path of least resistance lower although buyers supported at the lows to send prices back to roughly unchanged but with a lot of resistance to work through starting with 71.25 upside will be limited.

    DISCLAIMER:

    The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended. Past performance is not indicative of future results

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