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Chris Bersaw
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Spent my entire career on the trading floor of major futures exchange experiencing price discovery up close and quite personal and know first hand just how irrational these markets can be. Initially in futures, branched into the world of options trading learning various options strategies that... More
  • Commodity Currents: The Week In Review. 0 comments
    Nov 11, 2012 9:31 PM

    What a difference a week makes, S&P500 futures after initially holding 1401 for the past couple sessions fell forming an outside week suggesting there is more to this decline despite being within two percent of another support area at 1349.75 as 1401 becomes new resistance to overcome on any upside bounce while the leader of losses continues to be the Nasdaq 100 falling under another support level at 2595.70 putting 2487.50 in play should the selling continue with more resistance to work through on any bounce starting with 2595.70. In response to the weakness in equities, 10yr Treasuries were once again bid up within reach of new highs so they might be ripe for selling if prices are unable to advance much further especially with any recovery in stocks but support remains far below at 132-28 while the Dollar continues to build on gains as well now within reach of another significant resistance area at 81.355 to cross so we shall see how much upside potential remains. Gold continues higher closing 14.30 shy of its upside target of 1745.20 after holding support around 1672.90 and longer term a challenge of 1800 looks more likely now then it did last week with Silver staying over 30.840 as buyers supported now trying to retake 33.300 with more resistance to deal with but Copper heads in the other direction inching closer to key support at 3.3815 after being unable to advance beyond 3.5555 which has capped prices for the 2nd time so have to keep an eye on this potential divergence. Crude managed to climb back over 85.77 support keeping its upside possibilities alive although presently stalled after an earlier attempt to challenge 90.62 failed putting prices in reverse to maybe try again while Natural gas runs into resistance at 3.6200 but the longer prices stay over 3.452 the chances of an upside move increase. Outside week in Hogs after prices held 77.000 indicating more upside and with 79.225 new support, prices are looking for 82.200 while Cattle remains fenced between 125.00 and 127.00 so have to stay tuned as to where prices are likely to go. Corn continues to do very little on the upside as prices are unable to advance beyond 746 increasing the possibility of a trade to 677 but Wheat looks like it wants to head in the other direction inching over 876 looking for 886 although a sell off to 811 would be better to challenge first then advance higher afterwards and Soybeans adds to the confusion continuing lower looking for 1408 as resistance remains far over the market at 1535. Coffee continues to grind lower now sitting on 149.65 support so far in no hurry to reverse direction as there is little incentive to buy although what heads lower will reverse eventually but until then next likely support area to watch is 140.00 while Sugar continues to sour for longs also grinding lower toward its downside objective of 18.48 with resistance seen at 20.10. Cocoa reverses direction after failing to advance beyond 2,456 finding 2,324 support which is holding thus far checking losses, Orange Juice remains at the bottom of its recent range unable to make any upside not even getting close to resistance at 115.00 but thus far able to stay over 105.00 last time in this area was back in August which resulted in prices rallying to 130.00 something to keep an eye on and Cotton continues to move in slow motion likely headed to 66.05 with resistance seen at 73.00 as buyers stay away.

    DISCLAIMER:

    The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended. Past performance is not indicative of future results

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