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Chris Bersaw
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Spent my entire career on the trading floor of major futures exchange experiencing price discovery up close and quite personal and know first hand just how irrational these markets can be. Initially in futures, branched into the world of options trading learning various options strategies that... More
  • Commodity Currents: Technical Tuesday.  0 comments
    Nov 13, 2012 11:16 PM

    A buy program on the open sent stocks to the high after sellers in the S&P500 futures were unable to take prices under 1365.75 so had to rush to cover positions although gains ultimately didn't hold so more buying is needed to get over the technical hurdles starting with 1397 with a similar performance with Nasdaq 100 as lows of 2553.00 were rejected resulting in short covering as bull's near term upside objective remains 2695.63 to mark the start of the oversold bounce. 10yr Treasuries were rejected at the highs again, this time 134-055, one tick under the high 2 sessions ago and starting to look a little toppy here with support seen at 133-13 and the Dollar grinds higher challenging resistance at 81.345 with support seen at 80.830. Gold drifts lower after being rejected from 1740 two sessions ago but buyers support at 1717.20 which makes me think there is more upside especially if prices take out 1743.30 and an outside day in Silver pointing to higher ground if can take out 33.285 as buyers support at 32.090 for the third time with more support under that level to check losses with Copper also joining the party forming an outside day while struggling with resistance of 3.4795 as the recent profit-taking appears to have run its course with trend line support from the June lows seen at 3.3725. Crude slipped again still unable to get over 86.32 increasing the chances of more selling as 80.00 remains easily in sight but Natural gas explodes higher after overtaking resistance at 3.600 and exceeding 3.708 so prices need to stay over those levels to keep 3.986 within reach something that could happen sooner then later so stay tuned. Hogs stampeded higher looking for 82.000 but missed the mark in a stunning rejection off the HOD looking like a pullback to support of 79.100 is in order but Cattle advances over 125.450 forming an outside suggesting higher prices if can get a close over 126.075 first. Indecision day in Corn after last session sell off with chart-based support seen at 700 with 682 within reach as the levels of overhead resistance continue to grow starting with 736, Wheat continues lower as well probing the lower end of its recent range at 850 with a lot of white space on the chart until the next support level seen at 808 and the selling in Soybeans slows as prices sit on chart-based support of 1400 as selling conviction is lacking. Oats continues to hold 358 as resistance of 363 caps gains. Coffee leaves a bitter taste for anyone who is long as prices plunge 4.39% to new contract lows as sellers get motivated and where it reverses no one knows yet so stay tuned while Sugar after taking 19.28 held that level today challenging 19.52 but closed poorly although able to stay over the new support level to perhaps try again. Cocoa continues to remain over key support of 2,353 for the fourth time pushing higher with resistance of 2,408 to contend with before more gains are possible and Orange Juice brightens up blowing through 107.90 and tagging 109.80 with a trade to 115.05 not out of the question especially if prices can stay over 108.00 on any pull backs which I expect to be purchased. Cotton fell back under 71.05 unable to make any significant upside keeping a trade to 67.20 on the horizon.

    DISCLAIMER:

    The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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