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Chris Bersaw
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Spent my entire career on the trading floor of major futures exchange experiencing price discovery up close and quite personal like in your face personal lol and know first hand just how irrational these markets can be. Initially in futures, branched into the world of options trading learning... More
  • Commodity Currents: The Week In Review, Frosty Friday.  0 comments
    Nov 24, 2012 2:50 PM

    Will the recent chill continue for equities? So far that doesn't appear to be the case with the S&P500 futures as prices remained over 1355 and reversed direction to challenge 1404.50 with 1410 behind that for longs to deal with next week. The Nasdaq 100 played catch up after holding 2,500 exceeding 2606.55 looking for 2669 stopping under the downtrend from the Sept. high, also at an inflection point although in both cases volume was sharply lower likely making future gains difficult. 10yr Treasuries pulled away from new contract highs again to challenge 133-06 which continues to hold although not impossible to see prices fall back to 132-00 before its all said and done. The Dollar also declined unable to advance beyond 82.210 now sitting on 80.300 support with more under that level to counter additional selling but as long as 80.00 holds its possible prices can recover but generally being bullish on the greenback has been a losing proposition. Gold shined taking out another resistance level, this being 1738.10 putting in play a challenge of the key 1,800 level which has capped prices for more then one year, fourth time could be the charm, we shall see. Silver also gained taking out a cluster of resistance around 33.305 putting 35.000 in play a level that has capped prices since last November but with new buying present the fourth challenge could be the one that matters while Copper continues to play catch up putting prices within reach of 3.5675 as buyers return not waiting for a challenge of 3.400. Crude survived another challenge of 86.16 building a small base around that level to ultimately push higher from especially if prices can close over 89.04 but face more of a challenge with 92.27 whereas Natural gas continues to advance mostly on short-covering leaving prices vulnerable to profit-taking but downside should be limited by 3.863 as prices remain within striking distance of 4.073 with a close over that level being quite bullish putting in play an eventual run to 4.450. The slow grind high in Feb. Hogs continues remaining in buy the pullback mode should it pull back to 85.000 but might be a while as prices look poised to further their advance now within sight of new contract highs and Feb. Cattle decided to do something, rally in this case, exceeding 130.625 now within reach of new highs of 135.00. Corn did approach 700 but that's all it was able to do before reversing higher closing back over 747 putting 770 in play although think its only matter of time before we see lower prices that challenge 665 but not this week. Wheat remains unmotivated resisting a sell off despite looking like it wants too just that after falling under 878 as 820 still remains in play while an inside week for Soybeans points to a reversal as support 1368 continues to hold with prices likely to bounce toward 1506. Oats attempts to rally but is struggling with 382. Coffee grinds to new contract lows at 149.65 before bouncing to close back over 150.00 support could be an encouraging development but as buyers are still largely out of the market with no reason to buy, prices can continue to churn lower even with fewer sellers although the lower prices go the greater the chance of a reversal as the first upside target remains 162.55. Sugar tries to rally but ran into sellers waiting for a test of 19.82 before sending prices back to the lows within reach of 18.48 whereas Cocoa advances peeking over 2,475 putting in play an eventual return to 2,590 with nearby support seen at 2436. Orange Juice zoomed higher closing in on 130.00 something I expected two weeks ago but this time with more buyers so its possible 130.00 could be breached putting 138.30 in play, otherwise buy the pull backs with support at a distant 115.65 for now and Cotton continues to do very little unable to rally beyond 72.24 putting a another return to 70.00 in play again as prices remain largely range bound.


    The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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