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Chris Bersaw
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Spent my entire career on the trading floor of major futures exchange experiencing price discovery up close and quite personal and know first hand just how irrational these markets can be. Initially in futures, branched into the world of options trading learning various options strategies that... More
  • Commodity Currents: Trendless Thursday. 0 comments
    Feb 23, 2012 5:25 PM | about stocks: SPY, QQQ, TLT, UUP, GLD, SLV, JJC, PGM, USO, UNG, JJG

    Although the trend is definitely your friend when trading commodities, non-trending markets offer incredible opportunities for both sides. Narrow ranges continue in the indices with short term support 1350 for S&P500 and 2575 for Nasdaq 100 holding as probes to those areas on the open were met with buying keeping alive the upside potential with prices back on the high end of the recent range. Ten year notes were also well bid with buyers looking after prices traded around 130-25 taking yields back under 2.00%. The dollar breached 79.00 unable to make any headway through significant resistance around 79.22 now very likely heading for 78.00. This will be supportive to the crosses with the Yen getting a bounce possibly to 1.2673, Euro currency looking for 1.3496, and Swiss challenging 1.1200. Sliver was shining as it took out several resistance areas approaching 36.000 catching up to Gold which is still looking for 1,800, a level of special significance as it's the Nov high from which gold prices fell to 1,550. Crude oil showed no signs of turning lower anytime soon as buyers stepped up chasing prices setting a new contract high as oil heads for 110.00 after pausing yesterday. Nat Gas traded in the other direction as it was not able to clear resistance at 2.810 although holding at recent support around 2.710 where the 9 and 20 day averages converge. As long as support holds, possible nat gas can trade 2.907 then 3.000. In the grains volume is spiking despite the very narrow trading range with Corn and Wheat 15 cents either side of the 640-00 month to date with only the Beans moving higher also on increasing volume. Could be a sign of accumulation usually a precursor to a change in trend, in this case corn and wheat playing catch up to beans or maybe vice versa? A reversal in Cocoa after failure to push higher over resistance of 2,366 resulted in profit-taking although 2,261 should support. Sellers lost control of Orange Juice when buyers forced the issue after 178.00 held taking prices higher to end at 183.40 keeping alive short term upside. Buyers were AWOL in Cotton taking out another price level on continued selling with near-term support seen at 88.52 and 87.77.

    Themes: Commodities. Stocks: SPY, QQQ, TLT, UUP, GLD, SLV, JJC, PGM, USO, UNG, JJG
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