Chris Bersaw's  Instablog

Little pullback in stocks but S&P500 needs a close below 1375.30 ideally on increasing volume to show more selling intent but for now am just watching as this market has a tendency to refuse to sell off for more then one or two sessions before reversing to print new highs. 10Yr Treasuries traded up to 129-00 before closing off their best levels and could fall further if fail to stay over 129.04. The Dollar managed to trade higher to 80.200 before sellers pushed it back under 80.00 again but still remaining over 79.84 while the Euro has a similar problem unable to push over 1.3242 instead closing under 1.3227 looking increasingly likely to trade lower in the future. The Yen surged over 1.2031 and almost made it to 1.2192 could be looking for 1.2400 if can build on these gains and the Aussie continues lower being turned away from 1.0400 looking for 1.0100. Gold churned lower with the probability of reaching 1,600 increasing the longer it stays under 1685.70 whereas Sliver had a tepid bounce off 31.00 while still remaining under key resistance and unless can get a close over 32.000 might be looking at 30.000 with Copper slicing through support heading back to 3.7000 as longs decide to bail after repeated failures to close over 3.9000. Crude slipped but managed to stay over 105.00 as buyers were supportive but will there be enough buyers to take prices back up? Heating Oil managed to get a close over 3.2000 although still looking toppy as Gasoline tried to close back over 3.3384 keeping its upside hopes alive. Natural Gas dropped over 4 percent closing back under 2.307 with 2.2000 looming as buyers had a change of heart from another failure at 2.400. Soybeans couldn't follow through on an inside day yesterday closing back under 1354 today but bouncing off 1336 keeping the up move alive with a significant bullish reversal in Wheat off 630-0 but has a lot of resistance to clear from 646 to 653 before heading higher. Corn popped higher from 637 but didn't quite make it to 650 before pulling back a little. Inside day for Hogs as the market could be building a base here for a bounce to 93.70 and maybe 95.83. In the softs, Coffee made up its mind dropping through 181.00 after another failed upside breakout at 185.00 keeping alive its bearish tendencies with next target likely 160.00 which is a 48% drop from the 306.25 high and a 88% retrenchment from the 2010 advance. Two sided trade in Sugar with a bullish reversal today but again failed to close over 26.00 as there is congestion to work through so keep an eye on that price to see who gives up first buyers or sellers with Cocoa falling back under its 100day but holding 2,277 roughly midpoint from 2,400 and 2,100 in no hurry to do something at the moment. Orange Juice continues to churn toward 165.00 with 160.00 possible and Cotton held 88.00 on a successful retest then getting a close over 89.32 could bring prices back to 92.00.