Chris Bersaw's  Instablog

Chris Bersaw
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Spent my entire career on the trading floor of major futures exchange experiencing price discovery up close and quite personal like in your face personal lol and know first hand just how irrational these markets can be. Initially in futures, branched into the world of options trading learning... More
  • Commodity Currents: Falling Friday.  0 comments
    May 18, 2012 7:01 PM

    Stocks continued their falling ways with the S&P500 closing in on its immediate objective of 1287.25 with 1269 marking about a 10% drop off the recent high although it could always go lower as institutions are doing the selling and when they sell prices fall whereas more selling in the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 dropped it through 2488.50 looking for 2450 as its next likely downside objective with no sign of a bottom thus far, best to sit aside for now. 10yr Treasuries eeked out another gain albeit by the smallest of margins although how much higher can prices go is anyone's guess so have to wait for a pull back to 133-08 and see what happens. The Dollar reversed lower but that's hardly any surprise as prices were struggling approaching 82.000 so have to see if buyers support at 80.80.

    Short covering rally continues in Gold as prices blow through 1577 like it wasn't there with next upside objective 1620 whereas Silver build on its short-covering gains closing over 28.570 its near term target closing in on 29.750.

    Crude slipped again as buyers had little incentive to buy with its downside target of 89.46 fast approaching in the July contract but Natural gas exploded advancing over 5 percent, almost looks like panic short covering with 3.00 next likely upside objective especially if prices can exceed 2.800.

    Reversal of fortune in the grains with Soybeans failing to hold 1420 which ordinarily should have supported and Meal was crushed as sellers pounced although prices held 417.6 as next support is 400. Corn advanced into resistance falling shy of 640 but Wheat exploded higher climbing over 5 percent to close at 695 putting the Feb. highs within reach just over 700 in a mere four trading days.

    Same old for Coffee making yet another run at 181.00 thus far unable to stay over 180.00 but like with other attempts, still remains over 177.00 on the close which is encouraging for longs whereas Sugar pulled back under 20.50 after turned away from 20.82 to ultimately try to advance again if present prices hold. Cocoa made another run at 2,300 but was turned away although this time didn't fall too far from the best levels making me think there will be more upside attempts as what doesn't sell off usually rallies like with Orange Juice with new contract lows rejected resulting in a close back over 100.00, a trade could be developing. Inside day for Cotton after recent selling could be looking to bounce but needs to close over 80.26 first.

    DISCLAIMER:

    The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended

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