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Chris Bersaw
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Spent my entire career on the trading floor of major futures exchange experiencing price discovery up close and quite personal and know first hand just how irrational these markets can be. Initially in futures, branched into the world of options trading learning various options strategies that... More
  • Commodity Currents: Moment Of Truth Tuesday.  0 comments
    Jun 19, 2012 9:15 PM

    Is this the beginning or the end of the latest bull move in equities? The S&P500 managed to float higher on decreasing volume to close over resistance of 1349 but not 1353 while the Nasdaq 100 plays catch up but unable to advance over 2618 with more resistance seen at 2637.60. There is some buying but more likely short-covering ahead of the FOMC meeting the results due tomorrow at 1315. 10yr Treasuries managed to close above 133-15 while unable to move convincingly higher than 134-00 content to remaining within a half point range for now, no doubt what they do depends on what stocks ultimately do. The Dollar continues to trade lower getting close to 81.32 with further selling to be more difficult as the index is entering into a support area still supporting the crosses with gains in the Loonie looking for .9863, the Yen near term potential 1.2760 and the Euro seeks 1.2858. Inside day in Crude on a big spike in volume as prices regain 84.00 now on the hunt for 86.20 a close over can see prices likely advancing to 95.12 as buyers find value when prices approached 82.00 prior session while Natural prices whose recent gains were fueled by short-covering pulls back but do not think this is the end of the move as prices have support at 2.470 and even 2.400 giving buyers plenty of levels to enter the market. Hogs sizzled after exceeding 95.000 again managed to hold it on a downside test today but think gains from here are limited as 95.825 contains prices with an indecision day in Cattle as prices try to retake 117.00 with more resistance to work through with 115.00 nearby support. Gold remains unable to break over 1,640 specifically capped by 1634.90 due to lack of buying conviction but support seen at 1611 and 1600 area so its more waiting to see if prices will continue higher which is doubtful or pullback which looks more likely unless something changes. Silver back peddled away from 29.000 but managed to hold 28.395 an area which has supported in the past while inside day in Copper has prices looking higher namely 3.5500 after 3.3750 support held. Corn advanced before being turned away from 617 but supported at 601 in another volatile session with Wheat charging higher to challenge 649 with 670 not out of the question and Soybeans reversed course and are advancing as selling attempts to break 1372 failed although prices were turned away from 1450 for now as new highs remain on the horizon. Coffee woke up as priced advanced under 5 percent on a spike in volume as 150.00 held further selling attempts giving bulls a caffeine boost with near term upside seen at 160.75 while Sugar sweetened retaking 20.00 with a vengeance ending within reach of 21.00 its near term objective with an inside day in Cocoa rethinking yesterday's sell off keeping 2,300 within reach. Orange Juice finally made up its mind and advanced holding 110.00 exceeding 112.77 looking for 124.66 if can close over 120.00 and Cotton gained as well with 78.00 seen as next upside target.

    DISCLAIMER:

    The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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