Seeking Alpha

Chris Bersaw's  Instablog

Chris Bersaw
Send Message
Spent my entire career on the trading floor of major futures exchange experiencing price discovery up close and quite personal and know first hand just how irrational these markets can be. Initially in futures, branched into the world of options trading learning various options strategies that... More
  • Commodity Currents: Wrong Way Wednesday.  0 comments
    Jul 11, 2012 10:03 PM

    Despite the outside day yesterday in the Indices didn't do much today with the S&P500 largely contained between 1338.75 and 1327.25 ending not far from where it started while the Nasdaq 100 lead the downside testing support at 2547.40 before recovering slightly going into the close. Despite the recovery the short-term trend remains lower. 10yr Treasuries advanced to challenge new highs at 135-00 before pulling back but still the path of least resistance is higher as 134-06 is seen as support. The Dollar continues to advance but still lacking buying conviction which suggests difficulty when challenging 84.00 but for now its moving higher mostly against the Euro falling with less selling participation and the Loonie supported by 0.9766 but turned away from 0.9805. Gold continues to frustrate both buyers and sellers alike by refusing to sell off but unable to rally either with a half hearted bounce as upside remains a challenge with many layers of resistance to work through starting with 1593 and Silver experiencing the same bumping against 27.385 with the path of least resistance likely lower especially if sellers get a close under 26.000. Crude advanced after holding 84.62 with near resistance seen at 88.57, could be looking at a trading range situation if prices can't advance beyond 90.00 but remain supported by 83.00 and Natural gas continues to resist selling off after being supported by 2.740 thus able to close back over 2.844 keeping 3.100 within sight. Hogs continue to sell off testing support at 91.250 which should contain prices although can't rule out a trade to 90.00 and Cattle continues to chop lower testing 117.900 with a test of 116.00 looking more likely. Key reversals in the grains which should put the brakes on further price appreciation in Corn looking more likely to challenge 680, Wheat looking for 800 and Soybeans 1487 although the real test of buyer conviction is closing the gaps left from earlier in the month. How the market trades around them if they are closed or not will ultimately determine the short-term direction. Coffee managed to build on gains after closing over 180.00 but ran into sellers after clearing 190.00 while looking for 196.30 so a pullback to lower levels could be beneficial with Sugar also continuing higher after holding 22.50 to close over its 200dma at 22.80 but further gains to 23.77 might be more difficult. Cocoa held the 100dma again still looking for a close over 2,362 while Orange Juice was squeezed a little falling back to 123.10 from the failure at 130.00 and Cotton continues to hold the line at 71.00 again although this time with a spike on volume suggesting possible accumulation which is bullish especially if prices can close over 73.74.

    DISCLAIMER:

    The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Back To Chris Bersaw's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers
Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.