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I am the founder of the Braeburn Group of independent AAPL analysts and author of the Posts At Eventide web presence. The objective of my work is to benefit readers seeking to understand Apple's financial performance and to provide a repository of information and analysis at my web presence for... More
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  • The Braeburn Group's Updated AAPL March Quarter Estimates 5 comments
    Apr 15, 2012 7:51 PM | about stocks: AAPL

    Today I'm posting the revised AAPL March quarter estimates from the members of the Braeburn Group and the fifteen bloggers and independent analysts participating in the Group's March quarter revenue and earnings estimate index.

    The consensus estimates from the Braeburn Group Index participants are as follows:

    Revenue: $43.120 billion

    This represents an anticipated rate of year-over-year revenue growth of 74.81%

    Earnings Per Share: $12.86

    This represents an anticipated rate of year-over-year eps growth of 101.00%

    iPhone: 37.629 million units sold and 101.80% unit sales growth

    iPad: 13.358 million units sold and 184.58% unit sales growth

    Macintosh: 4.58 million units and 21.37% unit sales growth

    iPod Units: 6.858 million units and a 23.94% year-over-year unit sales decline

    Consensus gross margin is 44.69% and estimated net income of $12.132 billion represents 28.14% of estimated recognized revenue.

    I will be publishing my own estimates for Apple's March quarter later today.

    Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

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Comments (5)
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  • sometimes
    , contributor
    Comments (202) | Send Message
     
    Well, I'll be super happy if that consensus estimate is achieved, since that would put them on track to reach $50 EPS for FY2012. However, I'm hesitantly enthusiastic about iPhone sales this qtr... China should help quite a bit, but 4s is no longer new in the US. I'm eager to see how that balance plays itself out in the sales figures for the iPhone this qtr. When they announce the next iPhone (summer?) I'm confident sales will jump again.
    16 Apr 2012, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • Posts At Eventide
    , contributor
    Comments (879) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » sometimes:

     

    I'm currently modeling FY2012 eps of $56. I will revise my current $790 price target after the release of March quarter results.

     

    We have a Braeburn Group AAPL Price Target Index on the docket for publication around the beginning of May.
    16 Apr 2012, 02:16 AM Reply Like
  • sometimes
    , contributor
    Comments (202) | Send Message
     
    They have so many growth drivers that $56 certainly seems achievable: regional expansion into China, tablet market growth, enterprise adoption, margin expansion with cheaper components, smartphone market growth.

     

    Since I'm long AAPL with leap options, I like to be overly conservative when forecasting their profits... but in the quiet moments, I entertain the possibility of success on every front. And Apple's past performance has certainly given us reason to believe it's possible.

     

    I'll look for your Price Target Index in a few weeks.

     

    Thanks for your reply.
    16 Apr 2012, 11:56 PM Reply Like
  • Posts At Eventide
    , contributor
    Comments (879) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » sometimes:

     

    You are welcome to join the Braeburn Group and participate in the daily discussions.
    17 Apr 2012, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • Leigh Drogen
    , contributor
    Comments (195) | Send Message
     
    We would love to have the analysts from the Braebum Group participate in Estimize, and have their estimates aside all of the other independent and buy side analysts. Last quarter we had 130 estimates, we have about 120 this quarter as well.

     

    http://estimize.com

     

    Best,

     

    Leigh
    24 Apr 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
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