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I left Wall Street in August 2001 (95th flr of WT2, timing IS everything) and continue to trade for fun and profit. I hold undergrad degrees in Math and Econ, an MBA and am a CFA. Which is all to say -- I have no excuse for the miserable mistakes I often make. Pebblewriter.blogspot.com serves as... More
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  • The News So Big...It Had to Wait 0 comments
    Sep 21, 2011 1:11 AM
    I love end of the day live news feeds on Think or Swim.   That's when all the Form F-4's come across the wire, in the hopes that investors are already tucked in bed and won't notice.  Being a left coast kind of guy, I notice.
     
    Are these insider sales (some quite large) indicative of a bull market?  I think not.
     
     
     
    I was just about to turn in when I noticed this puzzling "never mind."  
     
     
    Does it mean the IMF isn't worried about China's economy?  That it is, but we shouldn't care?  What the heck are they trying not to tell us?
     
    A quick Google search produced lots of hits, which then started disappearing from the screen as I watched.   You've got to have friends in high places to disappear Google hits in real time.
     
    The WSJ blog page produces the old "page not found."
     
    Which, of course, just made me more curious.  All 6 of the remaining references to the article (which contained more than the title) simply linked back to the blog, but a few showed a snippet of the article that's been withdrawn.
     
    So, what's the big, bad secret?
     
    Which, under a microscope, reads:
    While the International Monetary Fund forecasts torrid 9.5% growth this year in China, the IMF is clearly getting a little more worried that China's boom could turn to bust.  In the IMF's Global Financial Stability Report, released on Wednesday morning [oops], economist Andre Meier assessed the risk of a banking crisis in China and is less than reassuring.  A huge expansion of credit in China since 2008 helped that country prosper despite the global financial crisis.  But that lending spree may produce "significant write downs" on debts by local governments, the IMF report says, citing private sector analysis.
    If you go to the IMF's website and search for Global Financial Stability Report, you're told that it was just updated.  However, when you try to look inside the report, only Chapters 2 and 3 are available.  They're interesting reading, but don't touch on the China matters discussed in the excerpt above.

    There's a transcript and video of the press conference wherein the report is presented.  But, Chapter 1,  the one discussing China, isn't presented.  Instead, there's this cryptic note:

    Seems to me this news is kinda important, since the world is counting on China to ride to the rescue with its trillions in reserves.  If China's problems are so big that the IMF has developed a cold sweat, that rescue might take a little while...
     
    It'll be really interesting to see if the blog reappears in the morning when due to be released, or it's been permanently disappeared like a Tien Min Square protestor. 
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