Pebblewriter's  Instablog

Send Message
I publish, a market forecasting service for investment management professionals. I focus on market timing, pattern recognition and technical analysis. My comments on or this site should not be construed as advice regarding any particular strategy or security. I... More
My blog:
  • The News So Big...It Had to Wait 0 comments
    Sep 21, 2011 1:11 AM
    I love end of the day live news feeds on Think or Swim.   That's when all the Form F-4's come across the wire, in the hopes that investors are already tucked in bed and won't notice.  Being a left coast kind of guy, I notice.
    Are these insider sales (some quite large) indicative of a bull market?  I think not.
    I was just about to turn in when I noticed this puzzling "never mind."  
    Does it mean the IMF isn't worried about China's economy?  That it is, but we shouldn't care?  What the heck are they trying not to tell us?
    A quick Google search produced lots of hits, which then started disappearing from the screen as I watched.   You've got to have friends in high places to disappear Google hits in real time.
    The WSJ blog page produces the old "page not found."
    Which, of course, just made me more curious.  All 6 of the remaining references to the article (which contained more than the title) simply linked back to the blog, but a few showed a snippet of the article that's been withdrawn.
    So, what's the big, bad secret?
    Which, under a microscope, reads:
    While the International Monetary Fund forecasts torrid 9.5% growth this year in China, the IMF is clearly getting a little more worried that China's boom could turn to bust.  In the IMF's Global Financial Stability Report, released on Wednesday morning [oops], economist Andre Meier assessed the risk of a banking crisis in China and is less than reassuring.  A huge expansion of credit in China since 2008 helped that country prosper despite the global financial crisis.  But that lending spree may produce "significant write downs" on debts by local governments, the IMF report says, citing private sector analysis.
    If you go to the IMF's website and search for Global Financial Stability Report, you're told that it was just updated.  However, when you try to look inside the report, only Chapters 2 and 3 are available.  They're interesting reading, but don't touch on the China matters discussed in the excerpt above.

    There's a transcript and video of the press conference wherein the report is presented.  But, Chapter 1,  the one discussing China, isn't presented.  Instead, there's this cryptic note:

    Seems to me this news is kinda important, since the world is counting on China to ride to the rescue with its trillions in reserves.  If China's problems are so big that the IMF has developed a cold sweat, that rescue might take a little while...
    It'll be really interesting to see if the blog reappears in the morning when due to be released, or it's been permanently disappeared like a Tien Min Square protestor. 
Back To Pebblewriter's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

Latest Comments

Most Commented
  1. Oh, Me of Little Faith ( Comments)
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.