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Nothing in life is certain and… consequently, all decisions are about probabilities.

- Robert Rubin, auther or the terrific biography In an Uncertain World: Tough Choices from Wall Street to Washington

Chapter 2, "A Market Education" is one of the best descriptions that I have read of thinking probabilistically about merger arbitrage.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Additional disclosure: Chris DeMuth Jr is a portfolio manager at Rangeley Capital, a partnership that invests with a margin of safety by buying securities at deep discounts to their intrinsic value and unlocking that value through corporate events. In order to maximize total returns for our partners, we reserve the right to make investment decisions regarding any security without further notification except where such notification is required by law.