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Chris DeMuth Jr.
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"It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it - who look and sift the world for a misplaced bet - that they can occasionally find one." - Charlie Munger I look... More
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  • Looking Ahead To The Next Five Years 10 comments
    Jan 16, 2013 3:58 PM | about stocks: GPT

    Now that we have closed the books on the first five years of Rangeley Capital, we are looking ahead to new opportunities to exploit mispricing in the capital markets. If you own or know of any security that is substantially mispriced and deserves our attention, please contact us.

    Disclosure: I am long GPT.

    Additional disclosure: Chris DeMuth Jr is a portfolio manager at Rangeley Capital, a partnership that invests with a margin of safety by buying securities at deep discounts to their intrinsic value and unlocking that value through corporate events. In order to maximize total returns for our partners, we reserve the right to make investment decisions regarding any security without further notification except where such notification is required by law.

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Comments (10)
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  • Sal Marvasti
    , contributor
    Comments (1364) | Send Message
     
    right do we get commission if the trade goes well ?
    and do you consider microcap ? If you give me the details on the CDO for GKK, I can give you a great investment opportunity. Almost as good as buying $2 with $1 + potential for growth. Company market cap is below $50m and it trades only in London. So it is very small.
    Of course there is small risk factor, but the market is mis pricing the stock.
    17 Jan 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4039) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » No, yes, out shortly, sounds interesting, and I hope that it works out well for you.
    17 Jan 2013, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • SA Editor Stephen Alpher
    , contributor
    Comments (540) | Send Message
     
    Crazy Woman Creek Bancorp. At $6M market cap, trading for fraction of book value. Right now, only the name attracts me. However, it's in Wyoming and could benefit the way some ND banks have benefitted from the oil&gas boom.

     

    No position and too busy to do enough due diligence to likely ever have one!

     

    I would also look at community banks in CA as the energy boom crosses the border into that state.
    17 Jan 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4039) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks. I love the name and love discounts to book. I even love Wyoming. Great mountains and no state income tax.
    17 Jan 2013, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Sal Marvasti
    , contributor
    Comments (1364) | Send Message
     
    If you trade in London here it is STI. Its a gold miner with a difference. I won't give you my internal analytics but take a look. Here is a link.

     

    http://bit.ly/13I4jAW

     

    I bought a very small position in GKK common (unfortunately I cannot buy the prefs from my broker here). I could not find any detailed coverage on the actual CDO's held. But its worth a punt.
    17 Jan 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • Sal Marvasti
    , contributor
    Comments (1364) | Send Message
     
    To wet your appetite: it sold a gold mine conditionally for $40m, it has another just about to produce and more. its market value is 17mGBP and has >$8m cash outside of these transactions.
    Do the maths. (fact number one is conditional which is why the market is not yet corrected)
    17 Jan 2013, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4039) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Might be promising; gold miners appear somewhat cheap compared to gold.
    17 Jan 2013, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Sal Marvasti
    , contributor
    Comments (1364) | Send Message
     
    not all, depends on political risk and capital funding risk. STI has neither as it is not in africa, it is turkey. The bet is in the condition of being able to convert the exploration license into production for the $40m sale. From what I hear this is simply a procedure that will cost little. Once completed, there will be little or no dilution and the other field will start producing revenue. Many institutional holders have bought into this at higher prices, so share is relatively illiquid.
    18 Jan 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4039) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks!
    21 Jan 2013, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4039) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As we put 2012 behind us and look forward to 2013, investors face some profound challenges. The real return (after inflation) on government bonds dips increasingly into negative territory. Corporate high yield bonds could be sued for false advertising. Quality equities that pay a dividend are expensive. Yet the demand for these conventionally “safe” assets continues to rise. The dilemma for someone who primarily seeks safety, however, is that when one overpays for these ostensibly safe securities, they become risky securities.

     

    We are not so bold as to try and predict what the market may do next year. Nobody can predict the future. Some will always be right and some will be wrong, but the one thing we have complete control over is the price we pay for an investment. The most consistent, tested, surest way to not lose money over time is to not overpay for what you own.

     

    "I make no attempt to forecast the general market - my efforts are devoted to finding undervalued securities. -Warren Buffett, February 11, 1959

     

    As we consider what lies ahead for 2013, what we do know for certain is that companies will continue to acquire other companies, spin-off businesses, restructure, and any other number of activities designed to grow value for shareholders. This is even more imperative for smaller businesses that lack the scale to successfully operate in a more challenging economic, regulatory and political environment. We believe Rangeley Capital is particularly well suited to take advantage of these opportunities, find value in hard to reach places, and navigate these choppy markets.
    8 Feb 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
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