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Chris DeMuth Jr.
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"It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it - who look and sift the world for a misplaced bet - that they can occasionally find one." - Charlie Munger I look... More
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  • InterOil (IOC) Produces 36 comments
    May 17, 2013 2:12 PM | about stocks: IOC

    "Look at IOC. IOC's momentum is major and it will surprise to the upside."

    • Shia LaBeouf, hot-shot Wall Street trader*

    * Technically an actor, who was playing a "hot-shot Wall Street trader" in the movie Money Never Sleeps

    "InterOil is a company we have done very well with to our investors…"

    • Anastasios "Tommy" Belesis*

    * Mr. Belesis is innocent until proved guilty in a court of law and remains free on his own recognizance.

    InterOil (NYSE:IOC) trades on the New York Stock Exchange in New York. But its operations are nine thousand miles away in Papua New Guinea. In New York, InterOil produces shares outstanding…

    (click to enlarge)

    Meanwhile in Papua New Guinea, what exactly is going on with InterOil?

    (click to enlarge)

     

    "InterOil (IOC) Staff participate in various sports"

     

    "InterOil (IOC) National Softball Club Championships"

     

    "InterOil (IOC): The biggest morning tea on the balcony"

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I am short IOC.

    Stocks: IOC
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Comments (36)
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  • byslkwd
    , contributor
    Comments (114) | Send Message
     
    Not to mention the retirement of the CEO, as well as a decade of undelivered promises. But what is the catalyst? we may face another decade of this facade...
    17 May 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4041) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That is a good question and I do not have a satisfactory answer to when a reversion to making sense may occur. Current equity is probably worthless or nearly so. Over time, it will be diluted towards zero.
    17 May 2013, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Omer Altay
    , contributor
    Comments (355) | Send Message
     
    Was looking at buying puts for this, but the premiums are huge - for calls too. Been keeping on eye on this since reading Adam Gefvert's.
    17 May 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Wilson Wang
    , contributor
    Comments (818) | Send Message
     
    I got a really good laugh out of this.
    17 May 2013, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4041) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The ratio of their promises to their accomplishments is spinning out of control.
    17 May 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Wilson Wang
    , contributor
    Comments (818) | Send Message
     
    Do you have a price target when you short a stock? And what's your target if you do have one for this company.
    17 May 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4041) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, we always have an upside, downside, and probability for each position.
    17 May 2013, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • Wilson Wang
    , contributor
    Comments (818) | Send Message
     
    I see. So would you say that you use the Kelly criterion for each position? I've been using it for a while and I think it's awesome.
    17 May 2013, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4041) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, always.
    17 May 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Wilson Wang
    , contributor
    Comments (818) | Send Message
     
    Awesome Chris. Thanks for giving me your insight.
    17 May 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Jacob Mohs
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    The juxtaposition between Cumulative Press Releases and Cumulative Proven Reserves is classic.
    17 May 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4041) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks! Glad you liked it.
    17 May 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • rootbeer
    , contributor
    Comments (249) | Send Message
     
    Saturday Night Live should take a look at some of your work.
    17 May 2013, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • TimeOnTarget
    , contributor
    Comments (2175) | Send Message
     
    Nice one Chris! I was scratching my head at the intro, but despite that you still totally had me going for a while--I was thinking "shares outstanding going way up, why is that good at all?" and "press releases? what the heck does that have to do with anything?"
    19 May 2013, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4041) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ha. Funny.
    20 May 2013, 06:57 AM Reply Like
  • Retired User
    , contributor
    Comments (1803) | Send Message
     
    I've never liked IOC, but I think they will announce a deal in July. It won't be what anyone expects, but it'll put an end to the infinite story stock and quantify valuation.
    23 May 2013, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • aretailguy
    , contributor
    Comments (1019) | Send Message
     
    Alan, is the DOJ or the SEC a party to the deal?
    24 May 2013, 12:39 AM Reply Like
  • adawg304
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    This is hilarious...
    23 May 2013, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    Wow this thing is up near 100 again. Seems like it gets hacked nearly 50% every year but never stays dead. Zombie trading for sure.
    2 Jun 2013, 02:19 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4041) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Crazy. The ratio of promises to value spins out of control, but market has been very forgiving.
    2 Jun 2013, 06:57 AM Reply Like
  • UNEMON1
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Have you been able to verify if ExxonMobil Papua New Guinea Ltd does really exists?

     

    The only resutls google.com displays for this Company * ExxonMobil Papua New Guinea Ltd" are IOC relalated

     

    if you were to search the following string: "ExxonMobil Papua New Guinea Ltd" -Interoil
    ... basically this is a ghost Company. I would have expected ExxonMobil to disclose it in its Quarterly or Yearly reports files withing the SEC.
    11 Jun 2013, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • Retired User
    , contributor
    Comments (1803) | Send Message
     
    Esso Highlands Ltd PNG
    11 Jun 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • UNEMON1
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    EXACTLY ... Esso Highlands Ltd PNG is the XOM company operating in the region. I've never heard of Papua New Guinea Ltd
    11 Jun 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4041) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Excellent question; it appears to be far more material to IOC than to XOM, no?
    14 Jun 2013, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • Wilson Wang
    , contributor
    Comments (818) | Send Message
     
    I just covered, did you cover yet? LOL thanks for the short idea.
    19 Jun 2013, 04:17 AM Reply Like
  • UNEMON1
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    IMO, plenty of room to fall. Covered the first half at $75. Hope to be able to cover the rest at $63
    19 Jun 2013, 04:40 AM Reply Like
  • Wilson Wang
    , contributor
    Comments (818) | Send Message
     
    I think so too! Let's see how this plays out.
    19 Jun 2013, 04:57 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4041) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have been writing calls weekly in the $90-110 range; I have some $80s that run out this weekend.
    19 Jun 2013, 07:20 AM Reply Like
  • Wilson Wang
    , contributor
    Comments (818) | Send Message
     
    Awesome Chris! Getting that nice premium!
    19 Jun 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Blair
    , contributor
    Comments (4519) | Send Message
     
    Best blog I have read. Really funny and right on the money. If there is any money. Just think of the $$$ Interoil is saving on transportation of its production compared to its industry. Averaging nil per barrel so far. That will change when they find a barrel. Perhaps a shareholder will be wearing it when they do.
    7 Jul 2013, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4041) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks! -C
    7 Jul 2013, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4041) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » According to many IOC stock promoters, XOM is in some sort of deal with IOC. Apparently, this is big news for IOC... but the news has not made it to XOM yet:

     

    http://exxonmobil.co/1... Search Results for “InterOil”

     

    Document Count: (0)

     

    Your search did not match any documents.

     

    No pages were found containing your query.

     

    Suggestions:
    • Make sure all words are spelled correctly.
    • Try different keywords.
    • Try more general keywords.
    8 Jul 2013, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • Retired User
    , contributor
    Comments (1803) | Send Message
     
    As noted previously, any forthcoming deal will be between PNG government (not IOC) and an arm's length joint venture of Exxon and Oil Search to build and operate the PNGLNG plant, under the banner Esso Highlands Ltd PNG, so if it blows up Exxon can walk away with no deep pocket liability.

     

    But we're getting near announcement time, if there's going to be one. Here's a link to a Canadian press release about "results" of the IOC shareholder party.
    I personally didn't bother to read it. http://bit.ly/11wS2Cv
    8 Jul 2013, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • UNEMON1
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Well ... Short sellers ... starting to be proven Right by the Company itself! ... LoL!

     

    InterOil Corporation Said to have ended exclusive talks with Exxon on Papua New Guinea site with no deal - press- Press reports suggests that other pre-selected bidders will now have the chance to enter talks with Interoil. Note that Shell in the past has been cited as a potential bidder in the Elk and Antelope gas fields. - Exxon has not commented, while an InterOil spokesperson said negotiations with Exxon were ongoing (although possibly on a non-exclusive basis).

     

    after all ... IOC was not that important for XOM
    16 Aug 2013, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4041) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://exxonmobil.co/1...
    “InterOil” Search Results

     

    Document Count: (0)

     

    Your search did not match any documents. No pages were found containing your query.

     

    Suggestions:
    • Make sure all words are spelled correctly.
    • Try different keywords.
    • Try more general keywords.
    • Try the name of a company in an actual deal with ExxonMobil.
    16 Aug 2013, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • Shareholders Unite
    , contributor
    Comments (2635) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps you should try the Exxon CC transcript, see what you get then.. :)
    23 Sep 2013, 03:43 PM Reply Like
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