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Chris DeMuth Jr.
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Chris DeMuth Jr. is the founder of Rangeley Capital LLC. Rangeley is an investment firm that focuses on event driven, value-oriented investment opportunities. Rangeley Capital and his value investing forum, Sifting the World (StW), search the world for misplaced bets. Rangeley exploits them for... More
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  • August Focus 7 comments
    Aug 2, 2013 4:10 PM

    I have two thematic investing thoughts for August that I am working on: cadence and lessons.


    I am working on analyzing at the pace of the market and of the events that we are analyzing. My goal is to minimize leakage between our ideas and our ideas getting priced into the market before they are in our portfolio. This is not about "fast" or "slow"; it is about acting on the tempo as dictated by events.

    Two ways to win

    I am also working on ensuring that I get a profit or (distant second) lesson out of every investment project whether or not we invest. It does not really matter whether we invested or not - we can always get smarter and better from every investment idea. Each project is a data point:

    • What happens with CVRs?
    • What happens with leveraged inverse ETFs?
    • What happens with TARP warrants?
    • What happens with put writing versus equity buying?
    • What happens to vol ETFs/ETNs when a market goal becomes vol management?

    These are questions with answers and scope for cumulative understanding over time. While they can be debated, the nature of the debate can be iterative and based on inbound facts so that we are better, smarter, and more focused with time.

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Comments (7)
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  • jaginger
    , contributor
    Comments (816) | Send Message
    Lessons is a great theme, especially for back to school month.


    Nice Ben Stein inclusion; he must be pleased!
    2 Aug 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (11759) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Hopefully; we're proud to have him as an investor.
    2 Aug 2013, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Yuanxi Zhang
    , contributor
    Comments (318) | Send Message
    awesome topics to work on!
    3 Aug 2013, 01:38 AM Reply Like
  • SA Editor Samir Patel
    , contributor
    Comments (163) | Send Message
    Chris, which of the TARP warrants are you fond of?
    3 Aug 2013, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (11759) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Goodness. I am a complete TARP warrant floozy. I am essentially fond of buying from the government, as their process is generally not too price-sensitive. AIG was my favorite followed by WFC, HIG, and BAC. I like banks and I love insurance. But, today, AIG is finally trading "normal" and is probably only a normal opportunity.


    I still own and like OBAF and OSHC, in terms of small banks. Both will be increasingly newsworthy by year end.
    3 Aug 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Steven Reiman
    , contributor
    Comments (333) | Send Message
    OSHC is great...growing deposit base, over reserved, low NPA rate...hard to lose with them in a steepening yield curve environment.
    3 Aug 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (11759) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » I agree; more to come on that one.
    3 Aug 2013, 07:44 PM Reply Like
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