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Chris DeMuth Jr.
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"It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it - who look and sift the world for a misplaced bet - that they can occasionally find one." - Charlie Munger I look... More
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  • 2013: A Bumpy Road So Far 24 comments
    Sep 5, 2013 2:12 PM | about stocks: AM-OLD, CLWR, DELL, DOLE, ES, OUTD, TMUS, PXP, S, ALCS, BLC

    It has been a bumpy road so far this year. Bumps in deal prices have included

    1. AM
    2. CLWR
    3. DELL
    4. DOLE
    5. ES
    6. OUTD
    7. PCS
    8. PXP
    9. S

    What is next? ALCS? BLC? SFD? Any ideas of the next definitive deal to get an overbid or a bump in terms? The dynamics of such positions can be quite positive as they are essentially auctions with an embedded put in the form of the existing deal. Where is the next bump in the road? Shiny new bragging rights and/or dusty old bottle of Scotch for the winning answer.

    Disclosure: I am long DELL.

    Additional disclosure: Chris DeMuth Jr is a portfolio manager at Rangeley Capital, a partnership that invests with a margin of safety by buying securities at deep discounts to their intrinsic value and unlocking that value through corporate events. In order to maximize total returns for our partners, we reserve the right to make investment decisions regarding any security without further notification except where such notification is required by law.

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Comments (24)
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  • ASTX
    5 Sep 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Reminds me of the question people would ask about former heavyweight champion Larry Holmes during his long run as champ...."Who is the next Larry Holmes"..Answer= Larry Holmes


    Holmes won his first 48 bouts and was champion for 8 years...All along people were looking for the next guy but he was the next guy.


    What I'm getting at is my pick for bump:DOLE. What is the next DOLE? DOLE!


    If I win I will take the bragging rights
    5 Sep 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Good pick; thanks.
    5 Sep 2013, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • I'll toss my hat into the ring and go with $KDN.


    If I win, can I take the Chateau Margaux instead?
    5 Sep 2013, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • How did the AUTO lawsuit go, if you don't mind me asking?
    5 Sep 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » We won't comment on any outstanding litigation.
    5 Sep 2013, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • Gotta vote SFD.
    5 Sep 2013, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » We own it and like it. We'll see what happens.
    5 Sep 2013, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • CXPO
    5 Sep 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • Lets see....Chris is from CT, but his heart is in Maine. So, by rights, his NFL team is The Patriots. a child, he once was run over by a Bronco, picked up by a big Raven, and deposited in Pittsburgh. Traded to the Packers in later years, he grew a love for chedder. So the answer is .....




    I think my reasoning is as good as any ones.


    2nd choice.....$GMCR buys out Cabot Cheese. The marriage begets a new Vermont dynasty....rivaling that of Ben & Jerry's. And we all know how that turned out......grin
    5 Sep 2013, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • I'll take $ALCO
    5 Sep 2013, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » That sounds like a good bet to me.
    5 Sep 2013, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • I'll go with AAPL buying ADBE, thanks.
    6 Sep 2013, 02:14 AM Reply Like
  • "next definitive deal to get an overbid"


    Since there's no entry fee, I'm going with synm. Longshot because there is no 'definitive deal' yet... but it could be the 'next' one :) With multiple bidders and 4 months left in the year.... who knows?
    6 Sep 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Excellent appearance on Bloomberg today.Keep up the great work!
    6 Sep 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thanks for the kind words. Much appreciated. Have a nice weekend.
    6 Sep 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • ALCS just upped to $14.45. That bottle of Scotch might be coming my way.....

    10 Sep 2013, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • no bump for Dole

    11 Sep 2013, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Yes with Dole news I am out of the contest.


    As for ALCS the company says today they don't view the 14.45 offer as superior.
    11 Sep 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Dole at 13.63..?
    19 Sep 2013, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Novus energy
    23 Sep 2013, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » 2014: A Bumpy Road So Far Part II -- a new bid for NuPathe (PATH)
    8 Jan, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • Nice read thnks.... Appreciate the timing.


    8 Jan, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » 2014: A Bumpy Road So Far Part II -- a new bid for Celesio within the next 24 hours. More will be posted here:
    8 Jan, 09:29 AM Reply Like
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