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Chris DeMuth Jr.
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"It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it - who look and sift the world for a misplaced bet - that they can occasionally find one." - Charlie Munger I look... More
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  • Chart Of The Day – Saturday, November 09, 2013 5 comments
    Nov 9, 2013 12:56 PM

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  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2422) | Send Message
     
    I wish you had printed the Citibank surprise index by itself. All the above chart means is that the S&P500 has gone up faster than the surprises.

     

    Perhaps a longer history would be meaningful, but the 10 year chart above gives no insight on future market direction.
    10 Nov 2013, 05:22 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4040) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks for the comment. I will certainly do the surprise index by itself at some point. What interests me about this chart is that the correlation has actually become negative.
    10 Nov 2013, 07:08 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    It does show that "beats" are getting less and less and that may signify something about overall market valuation which assumes forward growth. I'd think this indicator can be a leading indicator (by months/years) before a flat or down market. Just one more piece of the mosaic.
    10 Nov 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2422) | Send Message
     
    Yes, it has turned negative but when I compare it to a chart of the S&P it doesn't correlate (positively or negatively) on either long term direction or timing of turns, but perhaps I'm missing something.
    10 Nov 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    There is some correlation to be sure but likely not trade able by itself.

     

    http://bit.ly/1dX0n4Q
    10 Nov 2013, 07:48 PM Reply Like
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