Chris DeMuth Jr.'s  Instablog

Chris DeMuth Jr.
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Chris DeMuth Jr. is the founder of Rangeley Capital LLC. Rangeley is an investment firm that focuses on event driven, value-oriented investment opportunities. Rangeley Capital and his value investing forum, Sifting the World (StW), search the world for misplaced bets. Rangeley exploits them for... More
My blog:
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My book:
Rangeley Capital Best Investment Ideas
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  • Ruerd Heeg
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
    I wonder whether there are enough patients in Europe for meeting sales milestone 1.




    My conclusion is that the incidence rate in Europe is about 75 on average, which is a conservative estimate.That means about 500000 patients.
    12 Nov 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
    The stock at 70 cents seems to be discounting a potential $2 payout at around 30% odds. Right now it looks like its giving the near term FDA approval a zero percent chance.


    Unfortunately for many this stock is "only" about FDA approval and can go lower if people thing the panel will turn down or comeback with a CRL.


    Anyhow odds aren't great but the payout is disproportional so still worthy as a small portion of one's portfolio.
    14 Nov 2013, 08:02 PM Reply Like
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