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Chris DeMuth Jr.'s  Instablog

Chris DeMuth Jr.
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"It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it - who look and sift the world for a misplaced bet - that they can occasionally find one." - Charlie Munger I look... More
My blog:
Rangeley Capital on Harvest
My book:
Rangeley Capital Best Investment Ideas
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  • Ruerd Heeg
    , contributor
    Comments (414) | Send Message
     
    I wonder whether there are enough patients in Europe for meeting sales milestone 1.

     

    See
    http://bit.ly/HKXCYZ

     

    My conclusion is that the incidence rate in Europe is about 75 on average, which is a conservative estimate.That means about 500000 patients.
    12 Nov 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2334) | Send Message
     
    The stock at 70 cents seems to be discounting a potential $2 payout at around 30% odds. Right now it looks like its giving the near term FDA approval a zero percent chance.

     

    Unfortunately for many this stock is "only" about FDA approval and can go lower if people thing the panel will turn down or comeback with a CRL.

     

    Anyhow odds aren't great but the payout is disproportional so still worthy as a small portion of one's portfolio.
    14 Nov 2013, 08:02 PM Reply Like
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