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Chris DeMuth Jr.
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"It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it - who look and sift the world for a misplaced bet - that they can occasionally find one." - Charlie Munger I look... More
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  • Rangeley Capital Best Investment Idea Outcomes 2 comments
    Nov 22, 2013 9:50 AM | about stocks: CELG

    Best outcomes, as opposed to the previously discussed best (prospective, falsifiable, actionable) ideas, are far less important. For what it is worth, our best investment idea outcomes have included CELGZ, SSE, and LORL. Happily, we avoided the original sell off and bought a significant amount of CELGZ with a cost basis well under $2.00. The CVR subsequently doubled, doubled again, and paid out a distribution with a value in excess of our cost basis. This is worth mentioning because it highlights how little information could be gleaned from the price until it was too late to fully exploit. The price had imploded from around $5 to well under $2... incorrect in both magnitude and even incorrect in direction. Such pricing failures occur infrequently in large, liquid, heavily followed securities. However, they occur all the time among small, illiquid, lightly followed opportunities such as CELGZ and other merger securities.

    (click to enlarge)

    Themes: CELGZ, CVR, merger securities Stocks: CELG
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Comments (2)
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  • williamcarswell
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
    And with Abraxane momentum strong, CELGZ still has a great deal of upside from here.
    23 Nov 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Harlan Kessler
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
    I have a question on the net sales payments for CELGZ:


    "Net Sales Payment: Payment to CVR holders based on Abraxane’s net sales for the year (this extends by default through December 31, 2025, renewable each year until 2030 "


    So you get a payout for every year sales are greater than $1bn? Essentially you could get a decent payout, starting likely in 2015, for every year that net annual sales are greater than $1bn for Abraxane?
    30 Jun 2014, 11:08 AM Reply Like
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