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Chris DeMuth Jr.
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"It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it - who look and sift the world for a misplaced bet - that they can occasionally find one." - Charlie Munger I look... More
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  • Chart Of The Day – Wednesday, December 04, 2013 3 comments
    Dec 4, 2013 10:45 AM

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Comments (3)
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  • Brad Kenagy
    , contributor
    Comments (1570) | Send Message
     
    More correlated than the tech bubble, look out below! lol
    4 Dec 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • sheldond
    , contributor
    Comments (1131) | Send Message
     
    That is the elephant in the room! I keep telling people to get as far away from margin and leverage as you can in the short term. This ride will have a few more twists and turns before the rush to get off.

     

    at the end of this presidents term will tapering have begun.....Everyone knows its coming and everyone wants to get off before it happens.

     

    Here is my metaphor.....

     

    You are in a giant building with thousands of people.
    You smell smoke but no alarm so..
    Everyone keeps working
    But a few people walk around sniffing at the corners asking

     

    Do you smell smoke?
    The workers say yeah but the alarm didn't go off so it must be fine
    Most of the questioners return to their desks. A few leave.

     

    By this point the building with 1000 exits only has 300
    And instead of just the smell of smoke
    It starts to feel uncomfortably warm
    One guy gets up says fire and runs out....but he is "crazy"
    Everyone else keeps working or grabs some water to drink

     

    The heat increases you can see some smoke and

     

    Now there are only ten exits and the elevators stopped working

     

    You hear the ringing of the alarm as it finally sounds. Everyone runs....you are surrounded by fire

     

    Best,

     

    D

     

    Avoid margin
    Buy opportunities
    4 Dec 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • bfstrog
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
     
    Some of the people that exit early buy a fire insurance policy on the building, as well :)
    4 Dec 2013, 12:12 PM Reply Like
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