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Chris DeMuth Jr. is the founder of Rangeley Capital LLC. Rangeley is an investment firm that focuses on event driven, value-oriented investment opportunities. Rangeley Capital and his value investing forum, Sifting the World (StW), search the world for misplaced bets. Rangeley exploits them for... More
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  • The Weird History Of My Favorite Utility 4 comments
    Dec 12, 2013 2:38 PM | about stocks: KKR, XLU, SPY, UNS

    My favorite utility company has always been UNS Energy (NYSE:UNS). Since January 1, 2000, the total return on the S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) is about 36%, the Utilities Sector ETF (NYSEARCA:XLU) returned about 74%, and UNS returned over 723%.

    (click to enlarge)

    But the strange part was in 2004. I had been a large holder for a long time. KKR (NYSE:KKR) was trying to LBO the utility in a deal priced at $25.25 per share and the public utility commission (PUC) was giving them a hard time. The deal was conditioned upon receipt of approval from the Arizona Corporation Commission (NYSE:ACC). The commissioners were skeptical of the entire idea of LBOing a public utility. In their minds, if there were financial advantages that KKR saw, the ACC commissioners wanted such advantages to accrue to the benefit of the utility ratepayers. So, the deal was essentially dead on arrival, but it took a while for rigor mortis to set in. Shareholders approved the deal in March 2004. But by May, it was 100% clear that the ACC staff was unalterably opposed to the deal:

    (click to enlarge)

    In November, the ACC's administrative law judge (NYSE:ALJ) filed an opposition to the deal:

    (click to enlarge)

    The ACC meeting was scheduled for December 20-21.

    What did I do? In the midst of the angst around a subjectively uncertain deal with plummeting odds that it could ever close, I skipped town with my family for a few weeks. First stop: plane flight to New Zealand then chopper to Blanket Bay in Glenorchy, one of my favorite places to stay anywhere in the world.

    My intrepid/long-suffering wife and I went canyoning, which essentially involves putting on a helmet and wetsuit with a tire tread on the back and then jumping and slipping down waterfalls.

    For what it is worth, this was extremely fun and is highly recommended. As for safety, rest assured that no survivors have ever lodged any complaints as far as I know. The ACC denied the application on December 21:

    (click to enlarge)

    The deal was abandoned on December 30th. In terms of a regulatory outcome, this was a disaster. But what about as an investment? While the deal was running into so much trouble, the equity markets were strong - the S&P 500 was up by over 16% - and utilities were extremely strong with the sector up by over 30%.

    (click to enlarge)

    Merger arbitrage specialists fixated on the extremely close up date to date developments such as described and shown above did not appear to focus on the downside. Utility funds with relative value sector benchmarks had a hard time holding onto any shares of UNS, because the opportunity cost was so high and any modest arbitrage spread cut in to the ability to keep up with the white hot sector. It was only after the deal collapsed that fundamental buyers reemerged. Here is what the next month looked like:

    (click to enlarge)

    The deal's "downside" was over 20% higher than the stock's price. In dollar terms, here it the stock price:

    (click to enlarge)

    You can see the panic selling in November 2004 when the ACC staff first publicized their opposition to the deal as well as price discovery only two months later after the deal broke.

    There is still an opportunity in UNS. Late yesterday, Fortis announced an agreement to acquire UNS for $60.25, a $40 premium to their previous deal. The buyer is a strategic acquirer and 90% of their assets are regulated, so they are experienced in securing regulatory approvals. In the intervening years, the ACC has adopted a rate design structures more conducive to cost recovery. All five ACC commissioners are Republicans. UNS characterizes the regulatory environment as constructive. While the deal is working its way thorogh the approval process, UNS will continue to pay its quarterly $0.435 dividend. Here is the UNS dividend history:

    (click to enlarge)

    The deal will probably close by the end of next year. There is a gross $1.55 spread and a net $3.46 spread which will result in an annual net return of over 5%. Incidentally, this is within 0.1% of the annualized spread a year before the prior expected closing. But the lesson from this security is that the rate of return is less important than the ratio of the upside to the downside. When, from time to time, a downside moves above the stock price, there is a true arbitrage and one worth exploiting for profit.

    Invest in mispriced securities, take your family on vacation, ignore Bloomberg, and have a Merry Christmas.

    Stocks: KKR, XLU, SPY, UNS
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Comments (4)
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  • Enoch Qin
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    What an amazing story! Glad I am the first to leave comment ;)
    10 Feb, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Spare me the platitudes.
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Did you add to your position in December when the initial deal was abandoned and UNS traded 20% below your "downside" price?
    2 Mar, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (9957) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Spare me the platitudes --

     

    Fiction: Yes, because that would be consistent with my plan.

     

    Non-fiction: No. Just no. Why not? Well, my two (dumb/dumber/dumbest) missed opportunities have both been utility deal targets. In both cases, I was hiking with my family. In both cases I had (happily temporarily) lost millions of dollars. The sun was shining and that was all I felt (emphasize the feeling, not thinking) like losing that day. The first was the UNS break, but I already had a massive position. The second was an ALJ recommendation against the Energy East acquisition by Iberdrola. I guess if I had been sized smaller, I would have traded them more dynamically. But in both cases they recovered and then some. The first traded way beneath standalone value and the second utterly missed the political reality of a consolidator bringing in a uuuuuge (as Mr. Trump would say) new alternative energy plan to NY state.
    3 Mar, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • Spare me the platitudes.
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Chris,

     

    If you find you have some time on your hands, an account of your experience with Energy East would be an interesting read.
    3 Mar, 10:29 AM Reply Like
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