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Chris DeMuth Jr.
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Chris DeMuth Jr. is the founder of Rangeley Capital LLC. Rangeley is an investment firm that focuses on event driven, value-oriented investment opportunities. Prior to founding Rangeley Capital, Mr. DeMuth spent his career as a securities analyst for several hedge funds and proprietary trading... More
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  • Blame It On The Rain 4 comments
    Jan 22, 2014 8:55 AM | about stocks: BOBE, SHLD, KO, BHP, ABB, BJRI, DLMAF

    I believe it was Milli Vanilli that once said,

    Gotta blame it on something
    Gotta blame it on something

    Blame it on the rain
    e it on the stars
    Whatever you do don't put the blame on you
    Blame it on the rain yeah yeah
    You can blame it on the rain

    Companies reporting weak quarters find themselves in need of a scapegoat. So, we will be hearing a lot about bad weather in conference calls over the course of the weeks ahead. Have a drink every time you hear desperate CEOs and CFO's citing bad or "unseasonable" weather (by the way, in which season do they expect cold weather?). Much mischief will be contained therein. It is a common conceit of company - and fund - managers to treat surprises as something exogenous to their jobs. But dealing with surprises is the job. The next time you hear one tell you some version of, "I was awesome but then something bad happened," prepare yourself for a discussion of the weather:

    ABB Warns of Bad Quarter; Weather Happened

    Wouldn't You Know, BJ's Restaurants Hit By Unprecedented Existence of Weather

    BHP Quarter Hit By Weather. Management Thrown for Loop

    Bob Evans Farms Cut Guidance 'Cause, You Know, The Weather

    "I hate to use the weather, but a lot of it was the weather," - Coca Cola's CFO

    Dollarama Unexpectedly Hit By… Weather!

    People Not Shopping at Sears? It is Because There is Weather Outside

    Just To Cover All of Our Bases, World Economy Fizzling With Continuation of Worldwide Weather

    Nature is wild. If one is surprised by its wildness, then one will be surprised by almost everything including changes in weather and changes in quarters. The fact that we have to manage for the uncertainly inherent in a wild world is the job, not the excuse.

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Comments (4)
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  • grendelbane
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
    As the late, great George Carlin's hippie dippie weatherman once said, "Tonight's forecast, dark!".
    22 Jan 2014, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • toddro
    , contributor
    Comments (221) | Send Message
    $MIL CEO, in their Q3 call, expressed hopes for a cold winter in the Northeast and high nat gas prices to positively price their Alberta gas wells. He will have no excuse after this winter is over.


    Smith: "We find that gas prices usually go up in the winter if it's a cold winter, and we are very much hoping that, especially the northeast of the United States has a freezingly cold winter. This will help us substantially."
    24 Jan 2014, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (8760) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Now the weather is too nice:
    9 May 2014, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Ted Jipang
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
    Thank you


    I did ""sell in may""
    Well,How shold Ido?
    9 May 2014, 10:51 PM Reply Like
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