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Chris DeMuth Jr.'s  Instablog

Chris DeMuth Jr.
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"It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it - who look and sift the world for a misplaced bet - that they can occasionally find one." - Charlie Munger I look... More
My blog:
Rangeley Capital on Harvest
My book:
Rangeley Capital Best Investment Ideas
  • 10% Guaranteed Return* 98 comments
    Feb 1, 2014 2:11 PM

    Starting in February, I plan to post portfolios of investment ideas on motif Investing. My best long ideas have returned over +50% per year from 2009-2013 and +30% 2014 year to date.

    Whether or not you are interested in these portfolios - or you are interested in building your own - you might want to consider opening an account. If you do, we will both get $100 deposited into an account of at least $1,000 after you place your first investment. I hope that it will make a lucrative investment... especially with a 10% head start. Please use the comment section below to ask any questions that you might have regarding this opportunity to make 10%.

    * I sincerely hope that this title generally sets off warning bells and is taken tongue in cheek. If someone seriously claims to offer you a guaranteed 10% other than in small and quirky circumstances such as this, I would respectfully recommend running for the hills.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: You will get $100 when you open a new Motif account and place a Motif trade.

Back To Chris DeMuth Jr.'s Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (98)
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  • sofos
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    Can you describe the deposit/10% bonus proposal in more detail or at least direct me where such description can be found. It sounds you are getting in the advisory / money management business for third parties which is perfectly OK with me considering the reputation you have built.
    1 Feb 2014, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » sofos,
    I was being intentionally silly describing it: it is just good for $100. For further reading, please click on the “motif” hyperlink above. "Business" is probably too serious a word. I would say that this is going to be a hobby. Also, people who are qualified investors interested in investing millions of dollars alongside me already do so at Rangeley Capital. Now, people who are not qualified investors interested in investing thousands (or one thousand) dollars alongside me can do so. I mostly mention this because the idea of this blog is frequently "everyday arbitrage" opportunities for free money. I hope that this can be one such opportunity.
    Best,
    Chris
    1 Feb 2014, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • galicianova
    , contributor
    Comments (2247) | Send Message
     
    chris, an enticing idea, but not living in the US my ability to open an account in the US is restricted, though through my bank i can purchase stocks etfs or closed end funds on the US market. is there any way i can enjoy the fruits of yours know how?? - thanks!!
    10 Feb 2014, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Sp3c
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't mind getting more info as well. Can this be done if you live in Canada?
    1 Feb 2014, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As far as I know, that is not a problem. Just click on "motif Investing" above to open an account, begin trading, and collect $100.
    1 Feb 2014, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Sp3c
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    I admire your work and will definitely take a look into it. Thanks
    1 Feb 2014, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thank you for the kind words. Most of the money that I invested with Motif went into this one: http://bit.ly/NzAekJ.
    11 Feb 2014, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • galicianova
    , contributor
    Comments (2247) | Send Message
     
    chris, not long ago your favorite reit was gpt from the site i noted a new favorite cwh. am i right?
    12 Feb 2014, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I don't have those two ranked in any particular order, but will be writing about both again shortly.
    12 Feb 2014, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • galicianova
    , contributor
    Comments (2247) | Send Message
     
    could you in a sentence or two say what do you find so enticing in CWH to make it The REIT in the portfolio?? - many thanks!!
    12 Feb 2014, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'll go through it in detail in an upcoming article which will be out soon.
    12 Feb 2014, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • Kboyd78
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    So I like the site very much have you put your motifs up yet? Let me know if/when you do.
    1 Feb 2014, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » It is a fun site, I hope that it works out, and think that it could be a good fit for Seeking Alpha. I put two up today and will fund them this coming week. If you get a chance to check them out, please take a look and let me know what you think. The major weakness that I've encountered thus far is that I can't figure out how to short, buy bonds, or rights. So, this will probably be just my long equity ideas, which is somewhat misleading relative to what I do at Rangeley.
    1 Feb 2014, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • Kboyd78
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    I'm sorry Mr. DeMuth, but where can I find the motifs you placed? I put in stone pier and that didn't work do you have a link? I'm OCD and I think you just triggered my insanity (in a good way)
    1 Feb 2014, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I just set them up today; my guess is that they will be accessible later this week.
    1 Feb 2014, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/NzAekJ

     

    http://bit.ly/NzAekL
    11 Feb 2014, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » They are now available:

     

    http://bit.ly/NzAekJ

     

    http://bit.ly/NzAekL
    11 Feb 2014, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • bvandersall@neo.rr.com
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    Is this Rangeley Lite? :-)
    14 Feb 2014, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Essentially. Sadly, quite light as the constraints are severe. But, for investors not able to invest in a hedge fund it is hopefully interesting or lucrative or at least fun.
    14 Feb 2014, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3246) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for this Chris. You are very generous with your intellectual capital. And I applaud your transparency.
    15 Feb 2014, 02:04 AM Reply Like
  • galicianova
    , contributor
    Comments (2247) | Send Message
     
    Chris, in each of the 2 portfolios there is 1 very heavy weight goodie. Would you care to comment about TWGP and CPE-A? (isn't is unusual that the price for preferred isn't priced around 25$ ?) -thnks!
    15 Feb 2014, 03:13 AM Reply Like
  • writser
    , contributor
    Comments (42) | Send Message
     
    Using your respectable SeekingAlpha username to steer users to an expensive broker and earning money through your affiliate plan probably also makes a nice return.

     

    I usually really enjoy your posts but this is a bit too promotional for me.
    1 Feb 2014, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Now I feel bad. I thought it was a good deal. I get a lot of questions from retail investors who are not qualified investors looking for these types of ideas, so this is an outlet. If the charge is that I am not only a capitalist but a profit seeking one that is probably true but is, perhaps, also redundant.

     

    Well, I stick my neck out with my best ideas and do so in a way that is falsifiable and risks derision. What are your best ideas? A favorite long perhaps? A short? A mispriced equity? How about a cheap bond with an upcoming catalyst that will cause a re-pricing?
    1 Feb 2014, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Andrew Williams
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    Seems very reasonable to me. Did you see this?

     

    How much does it cost to buy or sell a motif?
    Whether you buy a motif as is, customize it to your liking, or build one from scratch you can enjoy a single low commission of $9.95. That's it – you get up to 30 stocks for just $9.95. If you chose to sell the motif, you'll enjoy the same low commission of $9.95.

     

    Can I buy or sell an individual stock once I purchase a motif?
    Absolutely! You can buy or sell a stock in a motif you own for just $4.95 in commission.

     

    What if I want to buy or sell multiple stocks in a motif I own?
    We give you 2 cost-efficient options. You can add, delete or change the weightings as you like, then buy the entire customized motif for a commission of just $9.95 regardless of how many stocks you've changed. Alternatively, you can buy or sell each individual stock in a motif you own for just $4.95 in commission per stock.

     

    How much does it cost to rebalance a motif?
    To ensure that a motif stays true to a specific idea or trend, the creator can adjust stocks, segments and weights. You can choose to follow these changes in just one click, for a total commission of $9.95.
    1 Feb 2014, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • tuliptown
    , contributor
    Comments (1034) | Send Message
     
    I think its right in line with the everyday arbitrage and the investor as well as the investee make $100 so everyone is helped.

     

    I also like that I can compare my own efforts to not only the S&P500 but to the Motif of Chris Demuth. Bragging rights if I do better? :*)

     

    I think it is a great fit with Seeking A. I would immediately sign up for both Chris and OM motifs. I would also be interested in investing with Chowder and Dave VDK motifs, too.
    1 Feb 2014, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • writser
    , contributor
    Comments (42) | Send Message
     
    It could be a very good deal, but it would be nice if you mention in the disclosure that you earn $100 as well if people open an account using your link. Commission-based investment advice is not always the most objective.
    1 Feb 2014, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Let's see, the link says, "Your friend invited you. Now, you both can earn $100." To me, I am interested in net performance. So for example, if you are a successful investor and come to me with an idea to make $100, I would be happy, possibly amused, and would quite likely say 'hey thanks' and do it or alternatively would say, 'hey thanks' and not do it. But that would basically define the range of my likely reactions. Also, I think that it would probably be reasonable to assume that something like 99.9999999999999% of my incentives are most likely aligned with my own capital at risk in the markets via Rangeley Capital in ideas such as those represented here.
    1 Feb 2014, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • writser
    , contributor
    Comments (42) | Send Message
     
    I think it's a bit strange that you only 'disclose' that the reader gets $100 for opening an account. That's not a disclosure but a promotion. A disclosure would also contain the fact that you earn money when people open an account and/or follow your portfolios. Also,

     

    "If a product or service promoted online is intended to be (or can be) purchased from “brick and mortar” stores or from online retailers other than the advertiser itself, then any disclosure necessary to prevent deception or unfair injury should be presented in the ad itself — that is, before consumers head to a store or some other online retailer."

     

    From the FTC guidelines for online advertising (http://1.usa.gov/Mog7oi).

     

    Why did you not include it in the article anyway? It would be honest and will probably not scare away anybody. Sneaky affiliate links are something I associate with porn and gambling website and you are better than that. Anyway, I'll stop nitpicking about it. Maybe you just forgot it. Keep up the good work and have a nice weekend.
    1 Feb 2014, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Nope. Didn't forget.

     

    Have a different focus: I think -- rightly or wrongly -- that all of my focus should be on coming up with the best investment ideas that I can. Some work and others don't but they are representative of my best thinking. The fact is that I invest and profit from them while I also write about them, the fact is that I get some (and it is such a small amount of money that the idea is absurd that an adult would be impacted by it other than for the elegance of an idea that I think is a good one) free money. This is not a conflict of interest; it is a confluence of interest. The very topic that I write about is my efforts to find and exploit free money. See also everything that I've ever written: http://bit.ly/XR2j4o. Why, of all places, would someone come here just to complain about exploiting opportunities for profit on a blog about exploiting opportunities for profit?
    1 Feb 2014, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Eric Milner
    , contributor
    Comments (34) | Send Message
     
    Come on writser. Receive $100 to invest alongside a great investor. Seriously, what is there to complain about?
    1 Feb 2014, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • writser
    , contributor
    Comments (42) | Send Message
     
    You miss the point. Exploiting opportunities is great, but you _intentionally_ do not disclose your own incentives in the article. I really don't understand why you, being a professional hedge fund manager, do that. You should (and you should want to) err on the side of caution whenever there is even the slightest chance of a conflict of interest arising. Now I'm obviously nitpicking a bit, but it's a slippery slope. Posts like this make me wonder what the main source of your income is: A) managing a hedge fund or B) profiting from affiliate deals and other promotions. If it is A, why don't you add a honest disclosure to your post?

     

    This article made a few people wonder about your intentions and you ended up arguing with a random internet troll. But your upside is limited to a 0.000000000001% (I hope I counted the zeroes correctly) increase in net worth. I really don't understand why that would be a good deal for you, unless point B is more important to you than you want us to know.

     

    Even if that is not true, that is the impression this post gives to a couple of people, and that is exactly the reason why you shouldn't post it. Warren E. Buffet would never publish such an article, or add affiliate links to his annual reports. "It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you'll do things differently.".
    2 Feb 2014, 07:08 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » A).

     

    Also, just to keep some symmetry and some point to this conversation, could you please answer my sincere questions that I asked above:

     

    "What are your best ideas? A favorite long perhaps? A short? A mispriced equity? How about a cheap bond with an upcoming catalyst that will cause a re-pricing?"

     

    This is all supposed to be fun and I am sort of reveling in the comedic pointlessness of this, but seriously, it would be nice to hear your ideas.
    2 Feb 2014, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3246) | Send Message
     
    Writ,

     

    Umm; You could instead put up a 1M plus and pay 2 and 20; or get free ideas and a free $100 head start (or ignore all). But please don't blow this for others.. =)
    2 Feb 2014, 07:54 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3246) | Send Message
     
    DNFTT
    2 Feb 2014, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • platonicbomb
    , contributor
    Comments (1464) | Send Message
     
    That's how intend to provide for my family once I have established myself through hard work and exceptional performance... carve off a slice of my good name and slip it in the microwave. Hire an architect to design a house constructed only of my strong reputation. You CAN do that, right?

     

    I can't believe there are three people who liked that comment.
    2 Feb 2014, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • platonicbomb
    , contributor
    Comments (1464) | Send Message
     
    Boooooo!
    2 Feb 2014, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • platonicbomb
    , contributor
    Comments (1464) | Send Message
     
    Always amazes me that non-contributing SA skimmers 'nitpick' (as writser aptly and accurately put it) about the contributions of hedge fund managers. See if you can pay any other money managers $100 to tell you what is in their portfolis.
    2 Feb 2014, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • platonicbomb
    , contributor
    Comments (1464) | Send Message
     
    Writser's first comment, I mean.
    2 Feb 2014, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • writser
    , contributor
    Comments (42) | Send Message
     
    If you don't use Chris' link you actually get a free $150.

     

    http://bit.ly/1djzvc5

     

    Even better right?
    2 Feb 2014, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Alpha Vulture
    , contributor
    Comments (67) | Send Message
     
    The best investment idea for you readers would have been a link without an affiliate code so they would have been able to pocket $150, and not $100. If you would have provided a proper disclosure people would have the chance to figure out that you don't have the right incentive to provide the best advice possible... (not to mention that you also receive royalty payments if people sign-up for one of your 'motifs')
    2 Feb 2014, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • platonicbomb
    , contributor
    Comments (1464) | Send Message
     
    Best thing would be to say thank you.
    2 Feb 2014, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • arbtrader
    , contributor
    Comments (242) | Send Message
     
    Chatter about more 'extensive disclosure' is why the all the super bowl ads HAD to have in fine print at the bottom: 'DO NOT ATTEMPT. STUNT DRIVER' etc etc.

     

    And also why lawyers rule all businesses from Dry Cleaners to SP 100 corporations. The decline of once-great country.
    3 Feb 2014, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree 100%. I really liked the old fashioned, "don't lie, cheat, or steal" version of ethics. It has been replaced by a, "don't have interests that overlap with what you say" version that I like less well. These can often come into conflict. I prefer listening to someone with millions of dollars of their own money at stake versus someone who promises that they will have zero. But the topic is exhausting and tedious enough to give up over.
    3 Feb 2014, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • AdamDivy
    , contributor
    Comments (417) | Send Message
     
    That's a different deal though. To get $150, you need to make 5 trades and you only get $50 for 1 trade.

     

    With Chris' deal, you get $100 for 1 trade. Better gain if you only want to put $1k in the account.
    3 Feb 2014, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • writser
    , contributor
    Comments (42) | Send Message
     
    It looks like your version of ethics is: "have interests that overlap with what you DON'T say". Because, as has been pointed out, if you really want to help your readers there is a better $150 deal available at Motif. But your best advice is (literally quoted):

     

    "please click on the “motif” hyperlink above"

     

    "Just click on "motif Investing" above to open an account"

     

    Very mature behavior from an extremely rich hedge fund manager with lots of good ideas (really) and gazillions of his own money at stake.
    3 Feb 2014, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • writser
    , contributor
    Comments (42) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, but it might be a better deal for some readers right? Wouldn't it be decent to point that out instead of encouraging everybody to "Just click on "motif Investing"?" Especially given that "the idea of this blog is frequently "everyday arbitrage" opportunities for free money."

     

    Isn't everybody better off (except for Chris) by knowing about this alternative?
    3 Feb 2014, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • jacobtr
    , contributor
    Comments (389) | Send Message
     
    You're already getting Chris' best ideas almost free. C'mon, seriously?
    3 Feb 2014, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • platonicbomb
    , contributor
    Comments (1464) | Send Message
     
    please stop now
    3 Feb 2014, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • bvandersall@neo.rr.com
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    Chris, I think its a great idea. I am looking to get into it soon.
    10 Feb 2014, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • Monolith Investments
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    Only for US permanent residents.. bummer :(
    1 Feb 2014, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • sheldond
    , contributor
    Comments (1229) | Send Message
     
    Hello Chris does the theme portfolio rebalance itself or do you ave to manually readjust to stick in the theme? Anyways thanks for sharing sounds interesting especially the 1000$ entry.....

     

    D
    1 Feb 2014, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The entry price is nice. I am new to this idea -- read about it this AM and thought it was some combination of amusing and lucrative. As for the mechanics, I don't really know. I presume that I change the ideas when new ones arise (probably every few months) and investors then would re-balance in some fashion, probably by executing a single trade for doing so. For a real answer, I would recommend addressing the question to service@motifinvesting...

     

    Meanwhile, the reaction has been sort of snarling and suspicious -- enough so that I had a chance to use my troll hunting tactic (http://seekingalpha.co...); it continues its perfect record at failing to find one single investment idea from the people who complain about my efforts to enunciate my own.
    1 Feb 2014, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • 433963
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    Chris, this is very cool! I'm sort of confused by the critical comments you received, don't really see the problem.

     

    Anyway, I'm going to open an account and invest with you using the profit I made following you on GPT. I played Gramercy via buying and selling the Feb 2014 $6 calls.

     

    Thanks
    Lance
    1 Feb 2014, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • AdamDivy
    , contributor
    Comments (417) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for posting this site and the offer.

     

    I posted a similar blog for a promotion at TradeKing where both people get $50.

     

    All you're doing is trying to help people get free money. I'm all for that!
    1 Feb 2014, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You capitalist running dog.
    2 Feb 2014, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • writser
    , contributor
    Comments (42) | Send Message
     
    At least he is upfront about his own financial incentives: "WE will both get $50 out of the deal." as opposed to:

     

    "Additional disclosure: YOU will get $100 when you open a new Motif account and place a motif trade such as Stone Pier Value – Return Focus or Stone Pier Value – Stability Focus."
    2 Feb 2014, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I think that you've made your point clearly, completely, and repetitively.

     

    "Now, you both can earn $100... you and your friend will each get $100" (both in bold).
    This conversation reminds me a lot of this one: http://bit.ly/1dWlxNo
    2 Feb 2014, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • mberg3220
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Sounds interesting and you have made me money numerous times in the past, I am in.
    2 Feb 2014, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • tkswett
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    Chris,

     

    Where might I find information about Stone Pier Value - Return Focus?

     

    Thanks
    2 Feb 2014, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/NzAekL
    11 Feb 2014, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • RRRichmond
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    Chris I signed up this morning. Waiting for your Stone Pier motifs. Here are my 3 best picks for 1st quarter 2014. 1. NWBO: I think they got it right so far on the phase 3 results! Best CEO of the in play biologics. (The downside is $2.50, the upside . . .$100+ ?) 2. AWLCF: The perfect match of drill rigs of the right size, in the right place, at a time of need and little competition. (The downside is a mechanical disaster, the upside is a 24% dividend, and 25% appreciation. Also the majority owner, Anders Wilhelmsen Group, has a great history.). 3. CAMP: From milk containers that talk to your fridge, then leave you a message on your cell phone to pick up a gallon of milk. Its the internet for "things". (downside . . . The world gets hit by a comet, the upside . . . A continued 300% from 2013.)

     

    Chris -- Can you use any of these?
    3 Feb 2014, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks for the ideas. I will take a look. Having people post with their own ideas and contributions make this worthwhile. Much appreciated.
    3 Feb 2014, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • rmgillis
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    RRR, AWLCF is my #1 position with 25K shares and its still on sale at under $20/share. The fourth dividend will be announced pre-market (Oslo time) on Feb 24. It's about 2 months after the ex-div date that the brokerages stateside include the latest dividend in the yield. So it may be April before the stock screeners will see the 20-24% yield.

     

    Chris, please ignore the nitpicker, it sounds interesting and fun to me and many others. Enjoy yourself with this.
    7 Feb 2014, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • snowcoat
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for sharing your thoughts and ideas, here's mine:
    DUST - short gold miners - appears to be at a good entry on based on my read of the chart. I'm not skilled enough to do the fundamentals but my understandsting is as interest rates go up, the dollar goes up, commodities go down, we blame the fed.... or something like that.... Do your own research... all I heard is the Fed is making it move and that usually makes money for me....
    It's a leveraged 3x... some people like those, some don't. I do and bought today and will hold for as long as it goes up.
    I've read articles on SA about the dangers of holding leveraged ETF's ETN's over night. So far for me, no problem, leveraged ETF's ETN's in my experience trade just like any other stock but with a much higher risk of getting stopped out or even gapped out, often before the open. It can be brutal.
    21 Mar 2014, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • PaulParsoneault
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    writser - much ado about nothing. You can sign up and benefit from Chris's expertise without opening an account. His portfolios are there for all to see for free. I am grateful to Chris for sharing his expertise freely. Personally, I trade on FolioFn here: http://bit.ly/1foBA9f which is a similar to the motif investing platform from what I can tell.
    3 Feb 2014, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Andrew Williams
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    This product is very interesting.

     

    In addition to Chris, there are a lot of very talented contributors at SA.

     

    Seems to me Seeking Alpha could become a tremendous resource for investors to match up with folios, motifs, etc. that meet their preferences.
    3 Feb 2014, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Here is my effort to incorporate others' ideas from SA and a few other such sites: http://bit.ly/MJ33tZ
    11 Feb 2014, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • Special Situations and Arbs
    , contributor
    Comments (727) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for passing this along Chris. Do you know how they buy the stocks in a motif? At market at the open? I guess for long term portfolios it isn't that big of a deal but for those who are very price sensitive it would be important to know.
    3 Feb 2014, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » All orders are long only market orders with real-time execution (including the fractionals).

     

    I have never placed a market order in my life and doubt that I ever will. So, this is a weakness of this opportunity. But, it is not a big one as there will not be a huge number of trades and none of the positions are close to what I think they are worth.

     

    This was just supposed to be a small, fun little thing I noticed on a Sunday AM before church. What a weirdly nasty reaction from other commenters. It makes the whole thing less fun for me. But I guess one has not really made it until he has a stalker or two.
    4 Feb 2014, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Special Situations and Arbs
    , contributor
    Comments (727) | Send Message
     
    Well when one puts himself out there in life there is bound to be reaction, usually positive and negative. Something one says or writes or does will make someone somewhere unhappy, or jealous or angry. There are always multiple ways of looking at a situation or a fact. Often, there is no right or wrong, black or white but just different ways of seeing something.
    In this situation, if you had not posted your 10% blog I would have ever known about the opportunity. So I am thankful that you posted. Others see it their way and that's OK too.
    4 Feb 2014, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • jacobtr
    , contributor
    Comments (389) | Send Message
     
    Don't get too discouraged. By my count there was really just one nasty reaction from a very persistent commenter who seems to have nothing to say, but has it out for you.

     

    I'd definitely be up for this fun little experiment, but I work for a fund and couldn't get it through compliance, or at least it wouldn't be worth the hassle.
    5 Feb 2014, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • jacobtr
    , contributor
    Comments (389) | Send Message
     
    Yes, there are always multiple ways of looking at a fact - the right way and the wrong way. I say that tongue in cheek, but value investing is all about exploiting misperceptions and employing a more accurate view. I just can't figure out how to profit from writser. :)
    5 Feb 2014, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • writser
    , contributor
    Comments (42) | Send Message
     
    I'm proud of that. If only it was true too at the poker table.
    5 Feb 2014, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • floppity2
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    Not trying to be rude but just getting to the point here (also as someone who can't invest since I work at a fund)...
    Wouldn't there be front running conflicts w/ your actual fund and this? Even if you say that you'll swap positions on Jan 1 only wouldn't you still be in a sense fighting for shares w/ your main fund?
    4 Feb 2014, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • tuliptown
    , contributor
    Comments (1034) | Send Message
     
    OK, my account is funded and ready. Thanks Chris.

     

    My idea is EMAN. Wearable displays is something they have done for defense industry for years. They should benefit and they make money now.
    4 Feb 2014, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • ls78
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    I only see the one Motif so far? Is the other coming?
    4 Feb 2014, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Here is Return Focus:

     

    http://bit.ly/NzAekJ

     

    Here is Stability Focus:

     

    http://bit.ly/NzAekL
    11 Feb 2014, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • tuliptown
    , contributor
    Comments (1034) | Send Message
     
    both are there now.

     

    Chris, do the weightings of the stocks in a motif reflect your confidence interval or earnings expectations?
    4 Feb 2014, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This platform is 100% new to me as of Sunday AM, so I am currently honing how to use it. It will feature concentrated portfolios with one focusing on the highest conviction ideas with an emphasis on stability and the other focusing on the highest conviction ideas with an emphasis on returns; in both case they will be sized based on expected value.
    4 Feb 2014, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • arbtrader
    , contributor
    Comments (242) | Send Message
     
    Chris, clearly you need to hire legal counsel! Look at how Nike handled their very poor disclosure of the danger in all Air Jordans....."The Pimp who Sued Nike over Air Jordans"
    http://bloom.bg/1dqy8bF
    It's all about disclosure, right? AT.
    5 Feb 2014, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • tuliptown
    , contributor
    Comments (1034) | Send Message
     
    I somehow got side tracked on my way to signing up for motif and realized that Chris and I were not getting credit (our free 10%) because of getting out and then back in not via the link

     

    In case anyone else did the same, know that you can call customer service and they will make the link manually and credit you. A lengthy delay for the exception to be corrected (about 2 months they estimated), but they were very nice about it and took the information down quickly. I was on the phone only 2 minutes.
    5 Feb 2014, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » $3,000 per hour seems like a good compensation to me. But I am, of course, eager to hear better ideas!
    11 Feb 2014, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • kennethfine
    , contributor
    Comments (190) | Send Message
     
    I'm interested in investing in "Stone Pier Value - Return Focus." Near as I can tell, it isn't on Motif right now. Where/when will it be available?
    10 Feb 2014, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » It is available here and now: http://bit.ly/NzAekJ
    11 Feb 2014, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • George Spritzer, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (877) | Send Message
     
    Chris-
    I will probably open up a small motif account to play around for fun.

     

    1) Does motif investing use market orders only? If so, this could be a problem for actively traded larger portfolios containing illiquid stocks. I guess that is why you plan to update the portfolios only once a year.

     

    2) I'm curious why you allocated so much to TWGP. Is this because it is the "best" idea or because of its better liquidity compared to the others?
    11 Feb 2014, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » George,

     

    Small accounts for fun appear to be what this is good for.

     

    1) Yes (I cringe to say as I have never used market orders). Yes it is suboptimal. But I do not trade that actively.
    2) It is reasonably likely to close mid-year. I think that it is a good risk. It has the value/catalyst/counter... attributes that I like. Also, many other types of investments are impossible on this site, so it was working within the constraints that it offers.
    11 Feb 2014, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • Miguel Marecos
    , contributor
    Comments (84) | Send Message
     
    Chris thanks for sticking your neck out! I think your disclosure was fair and did not present a conflict of interests.
    I know (from SA, at least) you work hard on your best ideas and in my view you should get rewarded for that. (that is motif objective I think)People have the responsibility to know in what they get into... That habit will make them avoid/prevent from being abused not by reading disclosures!
    11 Feb 2014, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • galicianova
    , contributor
    Comments (2247) | Send Message
     
    Chris, it is not stated explicitly, but may one aasume that the various positions were initially equally weighted?
    12 Feb 2014, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Not necessarily.
    12 Feb 2014, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • TheSandman
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm... Could my "wife" and "kid#1" and "kid#2" open separate accounts as well?
    13 Feb 2014, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I like the way you think, sir. I have 25 entities between my immediate family members. However, for this purpose, unless I am mistaken one needs separate addresses.
    13 Feb 2014, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This appears to have been my #1 most unpopular idea ever blogged about. So far +18% month to date.
    13 Feb 2014, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Stone Pier Value – Return Focus: http://bit.ly/NzAekJ

     

    It has been a smooth year so far for Stone Pier Value – Return Focus. Anyone who followed the original idea is up over 20% between the initial cash incentive and subsequent double digit returns.

     

    TWGP filed their 10-Q, their deal proxy, and changed management teams. Their acquisition is currently on track. I wrote up AUXL on Seeking Alpha, which was published today: http://seekingalpha.co....

     

    “AUXL's recent FDA drug approval should lead to significant profits and a possible acquisition of the company. A hedge fund manager sees nearly 50% upside in shares,” according to the editor’s notes.

     

    LORL has books out to both private equity and strategic buyers. A definitive deal will probably be signed in April. More details to come.

     

    SWS received a new bid for $8 today. We anticipate further bids.

     

    The rest of PVD is likely to get bought out by MET at the appropriate time. We are actively in contact with the company.

     

    XIV continues to work. This is as close as it gets to a perfect security. I have owned it in one place or another from inception. It is its own event.

     

    CWH is in the final stages upgrading its board and management. The record date for the consent process is today.

     

    I am always looking for better ideas. Please share any here.
    18 Feb 2014, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • TheCompleatAngler
    , contributor
    Comments (175) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations on a good start! Having read your commentary here during that past year, I'm not at all surprised.
    20 Feb 2014, 01:34 AM Reply Like
  • galicianova
    , contributor
    Comments (2247) | Send Message
     
    it is a strange portfolio with one entity which constitutes 75% and and all other 6 are minors with total of 25%. similar story with the 2nd portfolio. never saw anything like that. perhaps i should make 2 entities portfolio made out of the 2 giants in each portfolio...
    18 Feb 2014, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » So far so good.

     

    +15% YTD on my Motif Investing investments, counting only investment returns. +222% YTD counting investment returns and sign up bonuses. Thanks for everyone who signed up.

     

    If you're interested, you'll make us both $100. If you find that uninteresting or scandalous, then don't do it.
    13 Mar 2014, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4830) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Everyone who executed this idea earned a $100 bonus that should have hit your accounts today. You can log in and navigate to the Transactions page to view your $100 credit.
    21 Mar 2014, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • goober_jil
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Chris. It has always amazed me the number of people who are dead set on rejecting what is good. Ironically, these same people frequently criticize the results of what they rejected. Please don't let the crabs who responded to you change the way you choose to live. http://bit.ly/1dAxmdr
    22 Mar 2014, 11:25 AM Reply Like
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