Chris DeMuth Jr.'s  Instablog

Chris DeMuth Jr.
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Chris DeMuth Jr. is the founder of Rangeley Capital LLC. Rangeley is an investment firm that focuses on event driven, value-oriented investment opportunities. Rangeley Capital and his value investing forum, Sifting the World (StW), search the world for misplaced bets. Rangeley exploits them for... More
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  • What Investment Themes Are You Focusing On? 10 comments
    Feb 11, 2014 7:06 PM

    My plan is to focus my contributions on Seeking Alpha on two upcoming articles that may be of some interest. Meanwhile, what are you focusing on in terms of investment themes? I have organized my investment themes here. You can use these to follow the themes or to invest in them directly. You can scroll across each of the blocks on the left and click on whatever interests you - from Tax Inversion Beneficiaries and Candidates, to Mean Reversion, or articles specifically built around my articles on Seeking Alpha. One idea that I am particularly interested in exploiting is Embargo Arbitrage in which I set up the portfolio around ideas receiving attention on Seeking Alpha and similar sites. Meanwhile, I am going to move my professional efforts here. I want to make an effort towards less quantity but greater quality in these new venues. Additionally, the tone can be more substantive and idea-driven.

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  • smilytmm
    , contributor
    Comments (275) | Send Message
    Nuclear energy - I am long on CCJ. The supply of uranium will be constrained in future and the demand I think will increase. CCJ pays nice dividend too. But, I sold LEAP 17 put and bought 22 call because I think it is in long base, If it breaks out from 23, I see it going into 30.


    Volatility - short using SVXY.
    11 Feb 2014, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • tuliptown
    , contributor
    Comments (1561) | Send Message
    Followed you on Harvest, of course. But, i think seeking A is more accessible (populist?) while Harvest is a little hardcore (intimidating) for wee little me. I will hang in there, if only to continue to learn from you. Thanks for the opportunity!
    11 Feb 2014, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • connellybarnes
    , contributor
    Comments (556) | Send Message
    Cliffs (on your activism portfolio) was the first value trap I wandered into as I was learning investing. I view Cliffs similar to how I view the pre-Buffett Berkshire. High cost producer of a commodity. If I were an owner I'd strongly support Casablanca and have always regarded the entire Bloom Lake project as a disaster.
    12 Feb 2014, 01:29 AM Reply Like
  • Adib Motiwala
    , contributor
    Comments (372) | Send Message
    would you consider adding ones that are already acting on activist advice/ pressure such as a spinoff (TKR, HES, OIS)
    12 Feb 2014, 02:18 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (11434) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Good question. Yes I would. My thought is to simply comingle those within activism. It seems to me that some very good activism campaigns do not work immediately and there is a victory over management before there is a victory in the capital markets.
    12 Feb 2014, 04:55 AM Reply Like
  • platonicbomb
    , contributor
    Comments (1622) | Send Message
    Chris, I have been closely following ($GLUU) and ($TPCS). Heavily invested in GLUU, smaller position in TPCS.


    Glu Mobile recently rolled out a new platform for monetizing their mobile games. It is working well. They just had their first profitable quarter, beat estimates by .06 and last year's -.19 comp by .27 if I recall. Which I may not... I've been reading a lot of earnings reports lately. At any rate, they're up 20% but will probably trade down until hitting the 200-day MA, so there is time to get in. Expecting a double by year's end.


    Techprecision is in turnaround mode. They are on shakier ground than GLUU financially. They have a forbearance agreement through March and need to sort out something longer term soon. I believe they will find financing because their pipeline is huge. They make furnaces used to make Sapphire glass, which will be used in at least a few Apple products. They also get a substantial amount of business every time the Navy builds a sub and every time casks are required by nuclear energy concerns. An important new photon cancer treatment machine by Mevion uses Techprecision products as well. Techprecision's pipeline is growing quickly, and the primary concern is whether they can execute given their financial situation. If they can, I expect 8-10X within 3-4 years. Their conference call yesterday sounded very promising.


    Credit where it's due: These picks came by way of Mark Gomes.
    13 Feb 2014, 04:50 AM Reply Like
  • Ruerd Heeg
    , contributor
    Comments (1310) | Send Message
    Embargo arbitrage: shorting stocks after one month (when the article is behind the paywall again) might work even better.
    13 Feb 2014, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (11434) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » I agree; unfortunately Motif does not yet have a shorting capability.
    13 Feb 2014, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • earljr1
    , contributor
    Comments (528) | Send Message


    This may be a dumb question, but how confident are you about sending your money into Motif? I know they say they are insured, but I supposed they can say whatever they want. I had a little money with RefCo years ago when they went BK because of corruption. They decided bondholders came before account holders. Den of thieves.
    13 Feb 2014, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (11434) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Not a dumb question, but not one that I have a great answer for.
    14 Feb 2014, 06:22 AM Reply Like
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