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Chris DeMuth Jr.
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"It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it - who look and sift the world for a misplaced bet - that they can occasionally find one." - Charlie Munger I look... More
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Rangeley Capital on Harvest
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  • What Investment Themes Are You Focusing On? 10 comments
    Feb 11, 2014 7:06 PM

    My plan is to focus my contributions on Seeking Alpha on two upcoming articles that may be of some interest. Meanwhile, what are you focusing on in terms of investment themes? I have organized my investment themes here. You can use these to follow the themes or to invest in them directly. You can scroll across each of the blocks on the left and click on whatever interests you - from Tax Inversion Beneficiaries and Candidates, to Mean Reversion, or articles specifically built around my articles on Seeking Alpha. One idea that I am particularly interested in exploiting is Embargo Arbitrage in which I set up the portfolio around ideas receiving attention on Seeking Alpha and similar sites. Meanwhile, I am going to move my professional efforts here. I want to make an effort towards less quantity but greater quality in these new venues. Additionally, the tone can be more substantive and idea-driven.

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Comments (10)
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  • smilytmm
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Nuclear energy - I am long on CCJ. The supply of uranium will be constrained in future and the demand I think will increase. CCJ pays nice dividend too. But, I sold LEAP 17 put and bought 22 call because I think it is in long base, If it breaks out from 23, I see it going into 30.

     

    Volatility - short using SVXY.
    11 Feb, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • tuliptown
    , contributor
    Comments (776) | Send Message
     
    Followed you on Harvest, of course. But, i think seeking A is more accessible (populist?) while Harvest is a little hardcore (intimidating) for wee little me. I will hang in there, if only to continue to learn from you. Thanks for the opportunity!
    11 Feb, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • connellybarnes
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    Cliffs (on your activism portfolio) was the first value trap I wandered into as I was learning investing. I view Cliffs similar to how I view the pre-Buffett Berkshire. High cost producer of a commodity. If I were an owner I'd strongly support Casablanca and have always regarded the entire Bloom Lake project as a disaster.
    12 Feb, 01:29 AM Reply Like
  • Adib Motiwala
    , contributor
    Comments (187) | Send Message
     
    would you consider adding ones that are already acting on activist advice/ pressure such as a spinoff (TKR, HES, OIS)
    12 Feb, 02:18 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4040) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good question. Yes I would. My thought is to simply comingle those within activism. It seems to me that some very good activism campaigns do not work immediately and there is a victory over management before there is a victory in the capital markets.
    12 Feb, 04:55 AM Reply Like
  • platonicbomb
    , contributor
    Comments (1121) | Send Message
     
    Chris, I have been closely following ($GLUU) and ($TPCS). Heavily invested in GLUU, smaller position in TPCS.

     

    Glu Mobile recently rolled out a new platform for monetizing their mobile games. It is working well. They just had their first profitable quarter, beat estimates by .06 and last year's -.19 comp by .27 if I recall. Which I may not... I've been reading a lot of earnings reports lately. At any rate, they're up 20% but will probably trade down until hitting the 200-day MA, so there is time to get in. Expecting a double by year's end.

     

    Techprecision is in turnaround mode. They are on shakier ground than GLUU financially. They have a forbearance agreement through March and need to sort out something longer term soon. I believe they will find financing because their pipeline is huge. They make furnaces used to make Sapphire glass, which will be used in at least a few Apple products. They also get a substantial amount of business every time the Navy builds a sub and every time casks are required by nuclear energy concerns. An important new photon cancer treatment machine by Mevion uses Techprecision products as well. Techprecision's pipeline is growing quickly, and the primary concern is whether they can execute given their financial situation. If they can, I expect 8-10X within 3-4 years. Their conference call yesterday sounded very promising.

     

    Credit where it's due: These picks came by way of Mark Gomes.
    13 Feb, 04:50 AM Reply Like
  • Ruerd Heeg
    , contributor
    Comments (410) | Send Message
     
    Embargo arbitrage: shorting stocks after one month (when the article is behind the paywall again) might work even better.
    13 Feb, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4040) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree; unfortunately Motif does not yet have a shorting capability.
    13 Feb, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • earljr1
    , contributor
    Comments (265) | Send Message
     
    Chris,

     

    This may be a dumb question, but how confident are you about sending your money into Motif? I know they say they are insured, but I supposed they can say whatever they want. I had a little money with RefCo years ago when they went BK because of corruption. They decided bondholders came before account holders. Den of thieves.
    13 Feb, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4040) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Not a dumb question, but not one that I have a great answer for.
    14 Feb, 06:22 AM Reply Like
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