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# Chris DeMuth Jr.'s  Instablog

Chris DeMuth Jr.
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Chris DeMuth Jr. is the founder of Rangeley Capital LLC. Rangeley is an investment firm that focuses on event driven, value-oriented investment opportunities. Prior to founding Rangeley Capital, Mr. DeMuth spent his career as a securities analyst for several hedge funds and proprietary trading... More
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Mar 17, 2014 5:37 PM

Bracketology: How can math help?

Every year, people across the United States predict how the field of 65 teams will play in the Division I NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament by filling out a tournament bracket for the postseason play. This article discusses two popular rating methods that are also used by the Bowl Championship Series, the organization that determines which college football teams are invited to which bowl games. The two methods are the Colley Method and the Massey Method, each of which computes a ranking by solving a system of linear equations. The article also discusses how both methods can be adapted to take late season momentum into account. All the methods were used to produce brackets in 2009 and their results are given, including a mathematically-produced bracket that was better than 97% of the nearly 4.5 million brackets submitted to ESPN's Tournament Challenge.

March MATHness MOOC

In this course, you will learn three popular rating methods two of which are also used by the Bowl Championship Series, the organization that determines which college football teams are invited to which bowl games. The first method is simple winning percentage. The other two methods are the Colley Method and the Massey Method, each of which computes a ranking by solving a system of linear equations. We also learn how to adapt the methods to take late season momentum into account. This allows you to create your very own mathematically-produced brackets for March Madness by writing your own code or using the software provided with this course.

March MATHness in the Classroom

MAA Invited Paper Session on Thinking Linearly about Data in Research and Teaching, San Diego, CA. January 2013

Odds of a perfect NCAA Basketball Bracket - DePaul Expert, Professor Jeff Bergen

Getting ready for your office pool? DePaul Professor Jeff Bergen has the formula that can tell you your odds of filling out a perfect NCAA Basketball Tournament bracket, and it's more difficult to do than you might think!

Who do you expect to see in the final four? What will the final score be in the final game? Please comment below. In closing, from a friend,

Fr. Kaj Relwof, secretary to His Holiness Francis Uno, just sent the Pope's brackets. No surprise, it's an all Catholic Final Four and a Jesuit champion.

(click to enlarge)

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Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

• Chris DeMuth Jr.
, contributor

Author’s reply » I participated in the Buffett-insured contest, but calculated the EV at only about \$0.02.
18 Mar 2014, 11:23 AM Reply Like
• Chris DeMuth Jr.
, contributor

Author’s reply » March Madness Bracket: Where Wall Street Is Betting –

http://bloom.bg/OyzGLE

Appaloosa Management's David Tepper:
• Florida (1)
• Arizona (1)
• Louisville (4)
• Virginia (1)
Pine River Capital Management's Steve Kuhn:
• Florida (1)
• Creighton (3)
• Wichita State (1)
• Iowa State (3)
Oaktree Capital Management's Howard Marks:
• Florida (1)
• Wisconsin (2)
• Wichita State (1)
• Michigan State (4)
Fortress Investment Group's Mike Novogratz:
• Florida (1)
• Wisconsin (2)
• Louisville (4)
• Michigan State (4)
Goldman Sachs' Gary Cohn:
• Florida (1)
• Arizona (1)
• Michigan (2)
• Michigan State (4)
Greenlight Capital Inc's David Einhorn:
• Florida (1)
• Wisconsin (2)
• Wichita State (1)
• Michigan State (4)
12th Avenue Management's Marc Lasry:
• Florida (1)
• Wisconsin (2)
• Duke (3)
• UNC (6)
JPMorgan Chase & Co's Jamie Dimon:
• Duke (3)
18 Mar 2014, 12:02 PM Reply Like
• Chris DeMuth Jr.
, contributor

19 Mar 2014, 06:47 AM Reply Like
• Chris DeMuth Jr.
, contributor

Author’s reply » We Have a 1 in 7,419,071,319 Chance of Winning Buffett’s Billion: http://53eig.ht/POKdnl
19 Mar 2014, 06:49 AM Reply Like
• Chris DeMuth Jr.
, contributor

Author’s reply » A Perfect Bracket? More Likely You'll Be President: http://bloom.bg/1hAZ9wx
19 Mar 2014, 09:53 AM Reply Like

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