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Chris DeMuth Jr. is the founder of Rangeley Capital LLC. Rangeley is an investment firm that focuses on event driven, value-oriented investment opportunities. Rangeley Capital and his value investing forum, Sifting the World (StW), search the world for misplaced bets. Rangeley exploits them for... More
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  • Seeking Alpha's Positioning For 2014 Update 15 comments
    Apr 8, 2014 1:06 PM | about stocks: LORL, PVD, OSHC, OBAF, TMUS

    I have high hopes and expectations for deals in 2014. In particular, I am thinking about Loral (NASDAQ:LORL), the Provida (NYSE:PVD) minority, T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) as a seller this time and two banks - Ocean Shore (NASDAQ:OSHC) and OBA (NASDAQ:OBAF). By this time next year I expect a majority of those will have been acquired for a premium to today's market prices.

    - Chris DeMuth Jr., Dec. 23, 2013

    With 25% of year done, it appears as if at least 20% of the above takeover candidates will have been bought by the end of the year, assuming that the OBAF deal closes by then. So, I am a bit behind but will try to get back on track in the second quarter with a LORL or OSHC announcement.

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Comments (15)
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  • Harlan Kessler
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
    Thanks Chris.


    In your opinion which comes first LORL or OSHC? Certainly seemed like LORL, but the trial will likely slow down the sale. Is there an estimate of how long the trial will go or how long these type of trials usually last?
    8 Apr 2014, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (11755) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Probably LORL first. Settling with VSAT would be ideal, but barring that, it could drag on for a long time.
    8 Apr 2014, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • jaginger
    , contributor
    Comments (816) | Send Message
    I doubt there's much noise right now on PVD, but how do you see the endgame on that one? It sure gave us a nice buying op last quarter.
    8 Apr 2014, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (11755) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » I don't know. What are your thoughts on that one? Seems pretty quiet right now.
    8 Apr 2014, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • jaginger
    , contributor
    Comments (816) | Send Message
    I am thinking MET would like to end up with the whole thing at some point; but, given they acquired the bulk of it last fall, I don't see an immediate catalyst to come back for the rest. So, I think it's more of a waiting game on this one.


    Such a small bite left for them to digest whenever they decide they want to do it, so I think it's more a matter of desire rather than ability. Can't say I know what will make them take the final step though.
    8 Apr 2014, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • toddro
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
    Good stuff, thanks!
    8 Apr 2014, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Special Situations and Arbs
    , contributor
    Comments (1519) | Send Message
    Chris-What do you think is a realistic price for OSHC to sell for assuming they are sold in 2014?
    9 Apr 2014, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (11755) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » SS&A -- I don't know precisely, but it has a "2" in front of it.
    9 Apr 2014, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • gsterling
    , contributor
    Comments (1491) | Send Message
    OSHC announced a branch closing and a buyback yesterday. Not exactly the sale we'd like, but closing the branch should save them some money and the buyback can't hurt at these levels.
    22 May 2014, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (11755) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » SoftBank nearing deal for Sprint, T-Mobile merger:


    TOKYO -- SoftBank has reached a basic agreement to acquire T-Mobile US from German parent Deutsche Telecom, paving the way for a merger between the fourth-ranked U.S. mobile carrier and rival Sprint.


    The two sides are still ironing out the details, and the deal needs clearance from U.S. regulators. Together, third-ranked Sprint, acquired by SoftBank last year, and T-Mobile have some 100 million U.S. subscribers, putting their combined customer base on par with those of Verizon Wireless and AT&T.


    The Japanese carrier plans to buy more than 50% of T-Mobile shares through Sprint from Deutsche Telekom, which owns a roughly 67% interest. SoftBank will pay cash and use stock swaps to cover the estimated purchase cost of more than 1.7 trillion yen ($16 billion).


    Eight financial institutions will bankroll the deal by setting credit lines of about 4 trillion yen. In addition to Japan's three megabanks, such foreign financial institutions as JPMorgan Chase and Deutsche Bank will take part. To keep interest rates low, the SoftBank group is expected to first procure the funds through bridge loans, which will then be replaced with Sprint-issued corporate bonds and other long-term borrowing.


    SoftBank had more than 9 trillion yen in interest-bearing debt as of March 31. But the banks apparently have confidence in the telecommunication company's ability to repay loans, given its solid domestic wireless business.


    The U.S. Federal Communications Commission and the Department of Justice need to approve the deal, a process expected to take a year or two. Deutsche Telekom is concerned that T-Mobile's competitiveness will suffer if capital investment is put off during the screening period and the deal is not approved. It is asking SoftBank to compensate for the loss if this happens. The two sides apparently have not finalized several other conditions as well.
    11 Jul 2014, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • kadison
    , contributor
    Comments (330) | Send Message
    Chris, do you plan on writing an update on LORL?
    7 Mar 2015, 07:11 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (11755) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » I should; thanks for the idea.
    7 Mar 2015, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • jbzw
    , contributor
    Comments (1170) | Send Message
    OSHC is buying back more stock and inceeasing value. It has also updated its change of control agreenents with top brass. Do you have any opinion as to a projected buyout timeframe? Thanks.
    7 Mar 2015, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (11755) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » BNCL could pay $18-20 per share today. We'll see.
    7 Mar 2015, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3688) | Send Message
    Chris does a great job of sniffing out community bank stocks primed for takeovers.


    However outside of riding Mr. Demuth Jr.'s coattails =) I've found that small retail guys can also emulate Tim Melvin.


    There's still plenty of meat on the bone ion many of these plays. Hopefully these strategies don't become too widespread.

    8 Mar 2015, 05:06 AM Reply Like
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