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Chris DeMuth Jr. is the founder of Rangeley Capital LLC. Rangeley is an investment firm that focuses on event driven, value-oriented investment opportunities. Rangeley Capital and his value investing forum, Sifting the World (StW), search the world for misplaced bets. Rangeley exploits them for... More
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  • No To Selling In May, But Yes To Going Away 4 comments
    May 30, 2014 11:57 AM | about stocks: IPO, TWTR, VEEV, FEYE, SNY, GCVRZ

    On the last market day of May, the DeMuths are starting to contemplate paddle boarding, kite surfing, and other such summer activities. Happily, the capital markets appear to be cooperating enough to keep us in lobster rolls for the next few months.

    On the short side, my favorite hunting grounds for 2014 have included the recent IPOs. Here is the overall index:

    Individual opportunities have been more dramatic, especially timed around lockup expirations. That has served us particular well in a few cases such as TWTR, VEEV, and FEYE. If you are interested in looking at this idea further, here are some of the individual components of IPO. Overall, there are many losers from which to choose.

    (click to enlarge)

    On the long side, my favorite idea for the year remains SNY rights (NASDAQ:GCVRZ):

    We anticipate FDA approval this year. If you see me on New Year's Eve and I am wrong, expect to find me cranky, impoverished, astonished, and litigious. In that event, I hope that you will be able to find better company.

    Disclosure: I am long GCVRZ.

    Additional disclosure: Chris DeMuth Jr is a portfolio manager at Rangeley Capital, a partnership that invests with a margin of safety by buying securities at deep discounts to their intrinsic value and unlocking that value through corporate events. In order to maximize total returns for our partners, we reserve the right to make investment decisions regarding any security without further notification except where such notification is required by law.

    Stocks: IPO, TWTR, VEEV, FEYE, SNY, GCVRZ
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Comments (4)
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  • jaginger
    , contributor
    Comments (816) | Send Message
     
    Cranky, astonished, and litigious after no approval I could see (I'd be a couple of those myself.)

     

    Impoverished? I guess you own a lot more GCVRZ than I thought!
    30 May 2014, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • drew111
    , contributor
    Comments (514) | Send Message
     
    Oh don't let him fool you. If memory serves, he is a Walter Schloss disciple. An oversized position in GCVRZ would be tantamount to blasphemy.
    30 May 2014, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Ruerd Heeg
    , contributor
    Comments (1310) | Send Message
     
    Have a nice vacation and thanks for the update! Last January I remember that you thought the chances on approval were close to zero. Can you share with us which news made you change your opinion? Was it the resubmission, and why would that be so much more positive than an appeal?
    30 May 2014, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (11424) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ruerd,

     

    I was close to zero and am now a bit above 50/50 based solely on FDA checks regarding their focus and intention. I think that a lot has changed over the past few months. We'll know a lot more in the months to come.
    30 May 2014, 04:08 PM Reply Like
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