So far, I have described:
- A $10 million investment in an LBO candidate with a 10% upside
- A $7 million investment in an arbitrage situation with an 18% upside
- A $1 million investment in a REIT spin-off with a 40% upside
Today, I commented on a $7 million investment in a new idea described on Sifting the World. This has been a favorite since it was spun off of another investment of mine. Based on both judgment and information, it will be impacted by an upcoming catalyst within the next sixty days that will benefit my fellow shareholders.
With the assistance of local counsel, I have been monitoring regulatory dockets for this catalyst. I am confident in the position, with a reasonably likely downside of a $10 loss, an upside of a $3 gain, a probability is 95% and a close date of 6/1/2015. Such possible outcomes and probabilities indicate that the common stock is substantially mispriced. Adjusted for both time and risk, this position's return equates to about an 18% expected value yield.
For value investors -- a must-read.
- David Jackson, Seeking Alpha Founder and CEO
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