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Over 25 years individual investment experience in stocks, bonds, options, and Forex trading. I have developed my own model to find out of favor stocks, stocks with high short interest, and developing technologies for high value investment opportunities. Bachelor of Arts, Criminal Justice:... More
  • MNKD: Mannkind's Technosphere Technology Fully Legitimized Today 5 comments
    Apr 1, 2014 11:12 PM | about stocks: MNKD

    After a few scary weeks of nothing but negative opinion, after negative opinion, regarding the Adcom panel meeting today for Mannkind's Afrezza, the company received an absolutely overwhelming approval recommendation from experts in the diabetic medical community. After combing through the FDA briefing docs over the weekend, and the stock being continually sold off on the fear of rejection last Friday, I was completely confident that the vote would be an overwhelming approval, and it was.

    Now that the FDA approval is the only thing left, which is very likely now, because more than 90% of the time, the FDA votes along side the panel recommendation, it is important to really dig down to find out what the true valuation of MNKD is, and where it should be trading on the markets. This valuation, is even a discount to the over 63 million shorted shares outstanding in the stock, that will surely have short sellers scrambling for an exit moving forward. They completely missed this one. This valuation also excludes future drug opportunities for technosphere technology, to which I have written about previously, and which is where I believe the full value truly lies in the future for many drug applications. The panel overwhelmingly legitimized the technology today. This valuation doesn't include overseas opportunities on the horizon as well.

    So, with overwhelming approval recommendation from the Adcom panel experts, MNKD will enter into both the T1 and T2 diabetic markets with Afrezza. If we take into account the market size, company inventory, projected revenues, and all other aspects in just the U.S. markets, the current valuation is above $43.00 a share, and the stock re-opened for trading under $10.00. I will break the valuation numbers down after the FDA approval notification, but this stock is very undervalued here after today's results from the Adcom experts.

    I own the stock at an average of $5.50 a share, and I will definitely be buying many more shares at these paulty levels. I don't expect these low prices to last very long though, so I will be on my horse in the morning trying to add as many as I can down here.

    The future of MNKD just got so much brighter after a long struggle, and the door is now fully open for huge revenue across a plethora of drug markets.

    Disclosure: I am long MNKD.

    Stocks: MNKD
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Comments (5)
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    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
    I would like to add too but I hate chasing stock prices. What do you think prices will be? Do you see that much profit taking to keep the price down? Anything is possible and I guess that I will watch to see which way the wind is blowing.
    2 Apr 2014, 12:49 AM Reply Like
  • U.S. Biotech Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (113) | Send Message
    Nice post... I agree on the price target. Interesting how the first comment is about chasing the price. The shorts really are slick. The price has not even started the real climb and already chasing comments.


    U.S. Biotech Investor
    2 Apr 2014, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • gr82bfred
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
    Couldn't sleep last night, too excited for Al and his company. I am not a diabetic but my doc said I was close so to see anything available to help fight off this disease is music to my ears. I can't even imagine how happy the diabetic community is right now with another option to their daily regimen. I too, am looking for the long term implications of this drug and its delivery system to move right a long after pudfa is complete. Retirement is on the horizon.
    2 Apr 2014, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • FFErik
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
    I'd go with at least $12.50 before the week is over based on estimates before the approval was granted.
    2 Apr 2014, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Think Long Term
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Breaking the numbers down:


    Let's do the simple math just for Afrezza. We will use a 4x multiple, even though that multiple could be up to 10x. Being conservative, out of 26 million diabetic Americans alone and rising( we won't even use any European or other country possible future sales), and Afrezza captures just 25% of that market (a very low conservative estimate), we are looking at at least $4 Billion is sales, adding a 4x multiple = $16 Billion market cap. Very conservative to say the least and only using US numbers. This does not even include future drugs that could be used in the Technosphere platform.


    $16 Billion / 361 million shares O/S- Price = $44 a share conservatively folks..........


    A $44 stock trading for $7 and 70 million shorties piled on------ you do the math and see where this is heading very fast!!!!!!! And again, this is being very conservative!


    The American Diabetes Association projected a year ago that the total costs of diagnosed diabetes in 2012 was $245 billion. That figure was $174 billion in 2007. Literally billions of dollars are up for grabs here.
    2 Apr 2014, 11:47 PM Reply Like
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