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Scott Wachsler
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I manage Wax Ink.net, a baseline equity research company comprised of individual investors not licensed or registered with any government agency. I have been all cap value investor and independent equity researcher for the past 30 years, and believe that patience is the key to successful... More
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Wax Ink
  • Performance - Week Ending 11/22/2013 0 comments
    Nov 23, 2013 11:26 AM | about stocks: MXWL, ATI, AVAV, ATMI, AVY, URBN, RNET, SEB, NNBR, AIR, DORM, LAYN, CLF, DAR

    The stock market continues to climb, moving ever higher and higher. What I have found so fascinating about all of this, is that Hot Rod Harry, a cat that doesn't leave a trade on for longer than the time it takes to pick your nose, left a trade on yesterday for more than an hour!

    Holy ticker tape! If his father Hemorrhoid Henry, may his sits path always provide him relief, knew that Hot Rod had left a trade in place for an hour, he would roll over in his grave. Are you kidding me?!

    But according to Banana Tooth Nelson that is exactly what happened.

    Obviously as a buy and hold value investor with a longer-term outlook, even the inference that the super computer group is leaving trades in place for what, at least to them, is an extended period of time, doesn't really have any impact on me, which is a tactful way of saying I don't care what the traders do or don't do.

    But saying I don't care really isn't true, because I do care. I care because it is the super computer crowd that keeps market volume elevated, which generates investor interest, which keeps money flowing into and out of the markets, which keeps money flowing into the economy, which allows the president's toilet on Air Force One to be cleaned after each flight.

    So when Wink and Blink, the Dil and Do sisters, called to tell me they had actually talked to Rug Head MacDonald and it was definitely true, Hot Rod Harry really had left a trade on for 63 minutes, I have to admit that I was taken aback.

    Has some grand euphoria now entered the market place, creating a confidence so ingrained in the traders that they believe they are smarter than the markets as a whole? How long will this laissez faire attitude last? This is not good, not good at all.

    It has always been my experience that when investor common sense is replaced by investor hubris, good things never follow.

    So when a charter member of the One Second Squirter club leaves a trades in place for an extended period of time, I think market hubris has pretty much been attained.

    Hi. My name is Wax, and I am an individual, working class, investor just trying to do the best I can in a world that was never intended for investors like me.

    Throughout the course of the week, in addition to my regular job, I create baseline equity research valuations, principally for United States based companies in accordance with an All Cap Value investing philosophy.

    The other thing I do is let the world watch as I manage the The Wax Ink Portfolio.

    Perhaps watching me make the mistakes I make will help other working class investors avoid the investing pitfalls that constantly seem to find me.

    Enjoy your weekend

    Wax

    Markets
    The Wax Ink Portfolio was up 0.5% for the week. By comparison, the Dow was up 0.6%, the Nasdaq was up 0.1%, the S&P 500 was up 0.4%, the Russell 2000 was up 0.8%, and the Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, was up 0.6%.

    Year to date, the Wax Ink portfolio is up 32.1%, the Dow is up 22.6%, the Nasdaq is up 32.2%, the S&P 500 is up 26.5%, the Russell 2000 is up 32.4%, and the VIX is down 19.6%.

    Breakdown
    The Wax Ink Portfolio breakdown remains unchanged with roughly 70% of the portfolio in equities, 30% of the portfolio in cash, and 0% of the portfolio in bonds.

    Research
    A great deal of time is spent every week looking for potential investments. Part of that research is listed below. I hope you will use it wisely and to your long-term advantage,

    Maxwell Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq: MXWL) - Positive Investment Interest (Buy) based on a recent price of $7.85 and a fair value estimate of $14-$17. Wax Ink has a long position in this stock.

    Allegheny Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: ATI) - No Investment Interest (Hold) based on a recent price of $33.75 and a fair value estimate of $36-$42.

    Aerovironment, Inc. (Nasdaq: AVAV) - No Investment Interest (Hold) based on a recent price of $27.33 and a fair value estimate of $25-$31.

    ATMI, Inc. (Nasdaq: ATMI) - No Investment Interest (Hold) based on a recent price of $29.30 and a fair value estimate of $41-$47.

    AutoNation, Inc. (NYSE: AN) - Negative Investment Interest (Sell) based on a recent price of $49.86 and a fair value estimate of $35-$43.

    Avery Dennison Corporation (NYSE: AVY) - No Investment Interest (Hold) based on a recent price of $48.28 and a fair value estimate of $42-$49.

    Urban Outfitters, Inc. (Nasdaq: URBN) - No Investment Interest (Hold) based on a recent price of $39.64 and a fair value estimate of $40-$47.

    RigNet, Inc. (Nasdaq: RNET) - Negative Investment Interest (Sell) based on a recent price of $39.24 and a fair value estimate of $29-$35.

    Seaboard Corporation (NYSE: SEB) - Negative Investment Interest (Sell) based on a recent price of $2713.21 and a fair value estimate of $449-$496.

    NN, Inc. (Nasdaq: NNBR) - Positive Investment Interest (Buy) based on a recent price of $17.92 and a fair value estimate of $35-$40.

    Holdings
    This week's moving on up stocks were airplane repair company AAR Corporation (NYSE: AIR), up 5%, after market auto parts maker Dorman Products (Nasdaq: DORM), up 4%, and heavy construction doer Layne Christensen (NYSE: LAYN) was up 4%.

    This week's floaters in the bunch bowl were ultra capacitor king Maxwell Technologies (Nasdaq: MXWL), down 5%, iron ore digger upper Cliffs Natural Resources (NYSE: CLF), down 5%, and chicken grease collector Darling International (NYSE: DAR), down 4%.

    Not Performing
    The top portfolio choke and puke stocks are, soon to be taken private communications equipment company Tellabs, down 55% since being added to the portfolio, garage door and telephone headset maker Griffon Corporation, iron ore digger upper Cliffs Natural Resources, down 23% since being added to the portfolio, and garage door and telephone headset maker Griffon Corporation, down 26% since being added to the portfolio.

    Portfolio Notes
    Over the course of the next several weeks I will be evaluating the performance of the portfolio holdings. Traditionally I focus on the holdings that have been in the portfolio the longest, stopping at holdings that have been in the portfolio less than 1825 days.

    Copyright © 2013 Wax Ink

    Wax Ink is a baseline equity research company not licensed or registered with any government agency

    Disclosure: I am long AIR, DORM, LAYN, MXWL, CLF, DAR.

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