Scott Wachsler's  Instablog

Scott Wachsler
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I manage Wax, a baseline equity research company comprised of individual investors not licensed or registered with any government agency. I have been all cap value investor and independent equity researcher for the past 30 years, and believe that patience is the key to successful... More
My company:
Wax Ink
My blog:
Wax Ink
  • Performance - 12/27/2013 0 comments
    Dec 28, 2013 8:52 AM | about stocks: INT, ANW, LAYN, ARCB, SCX, AIR, MYE, DORM, GFF

    The markets have had a remarkable run in 2013, thanks mainly to the Fed attempting to "fix" the economy. Individual investors, especially those new to managing their own money, should be aware, that 25%+ indices gains are not overly common.

    The trick to long-term investing success, is to find great stocks and add them to the portfolio when the markets put them on sale. Such is the art and the discipline of the value investor.

    It is not easy being a value investor. Hours and hours are spent every week valuing stocks in hopes that when the market decides to put a stock on sale, I will not only have some idea regarding the stock value, but also about the demand for the associated company's products.

    It is quite a bit of work to perform all of this research and create this weekly report, and quite frankly I'm tired of doing it. So in the future I'm going to post the market information, my holdings information, and maybe some research, but that's about it.

    In the end, I'm simply tired of missing Saturday morning cartoons.

    So thanx for reading, and thanx for letting me share what little I know about investing with you. I wish you much success in the coming year.

    Enjoy your weekend.


    The Wax Ink Portfolio was up 1.2% for the week. By comparison, the Dow was up 1.6%, the Nasdaq was up 1.3%, the S&P 500 was up 1.3%, the Russell 2000 was up 1.3%, and the Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, was down 9.6%.

    Year to date, the Wax Ink portfolio is up 47.6%, the Dow is up 25.7%, the Nasdaq is up 37.7%, the S&P 500 is up 29.1%, the Russell 2000 is up 36.7%, and the VIX is down 18.2%.

    The Wax Ink Portfolio breakdown is roughly 66% equities, 34% cash, and 0% bonds.

    This week's moving on up stocks were rubber and heavy industry constructor Layne Christensen Company (Nasdaq: LAYN), up 5%, keep on truckin' company Akansas Best Corporation (Nasdaq: ABFS), up 3%, and small tool maker The L.S. Starrett Company (NYSE: SCX) was up 3%.

    This week's floaters in the bunch bowl were airplane repair company AAR Corporation (NYSE: AIR), down 2%, container maker Myers Industries (NYSE: MYE), down 2%, and after- market auto parts maker Dorman Products (Nasdaq: DORM), down 2%.

    Not Performing
    With the recent changes to the portfolio, the new portfolio choke and puke stocks are garage door and telephone headset makerGriffon Corporation (NYSE: GFF), down 26% since being added to the portfolio, and municipal/industrial construction company Layne Christensen (Nasdaq: LAYN), down 19% since being added to the portfolio.

    A great deal of time is spent every week looking for potential investments. Part of that research is listed below. Investment considerations are based on a long-term, buy and hold,
    value investing philosophy, that considers investment risk before considering investment reward.

    World Fuel Services Corporation (NYSE: INT) - No Investment Interest based on a recent price of $42.55 and a fair value estimate of $49-$55.

    The company is a global fuel logistics company involved in the marketing and sale of marine, aviation and land fuel products and related services.

    Investment Ink
    The stock appears fairly valued at this time. Items of note are y-o-y debt growth of 31%, y-o-y earnings growth of (-6%), y-o-y free cash flow growth of (-7%). Debt also exceeds net fixed assets by more than 3-to-1, which could make borrowing more difficult and more expensive. Investigate the company's ability to increase debt.

    Aegean Marine Petroleum Network, Inc. (NYSE: ANW) - Positive Investment Interest based on a recent price of $10.45 and a fair value estimate of $36-$58.

    The company is a marine fuel logistics company that physically supplies and markets refined marine fuel and lubricants to ships in port and at sea.

    Investment Ink
    While y-o-y debt growth of (-8%), y-o-y earnings growth of 289%, y-o-y free cash flow growth of 162%, and a TTM PE of 3 are all positive metrics for the stock, the stock price appears to have gotten ahead of itself with a one-year price change of 98% compared to a y-o-y increase in sales of 4%.

    Copyright © 2013 Wax Ink

    Wax Ink is a baseline equity research company not licensed or registered with any government agency

    Disclosure: I am long LAYN, ABFS, SCX, AIR, MYE, DORM, GFF.

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