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Scott Wachsler
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I manage Wax, a baseline equity research company comprised of individual investors not licensed or registered with any government agency. I have been all cap value investor and independent equity researcher for the past 30 years, and believe that patience is the key to successful... More
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  • Triumph Group Value Alert 0 comments
    Jul 10, 2014 5:35 AM | about stocks: TGI

    Texas (July 10, 2014) Wax Ink has issued a Negative Investment Interest opinion for Triumph Group, Inc. (NYSE: TGI), based on a recent intrinsic value review that placed fair value for the company between $47-$54.

    A Negative Investment Interest opinion (sell) means that the current key performance indicators (KPIs) and associated financial metrics do not favor a position in this stock as an active investment at this time.

    The recent close of $66.01 is approximately 136% above a fair value buy target for the stock and approximately 15% above a fair value close target for the stock. The recent close is also 20% below analysts' twelve-month $83.00 median price target for the stock.

    The recent close represents a 20% decrease in the one-year price of the stock, while year-over-year sales increased 2%, year-over-year earnings decreased 15%, year-over-year debt increased 15%, and year-over-year free cash flow decreased 18%.

    The company paid a dividend of $0.16 which represents a year-over-year dividend decrease of 1%.

    The stock currently has a trailing twelve-month PE Ratio of 9, and a PEG Ratio of 0.6 basis estimated forward earnings growth of 14.5%.

    In the past 52 weeks, share prices have moved between a high of $85.50 and a low of $61.41, placing current equilibrium at $69.01. With the recent close, the stock is trading 30% below the 52 week high, 7% above the 52 week low, and 5% above current equilibrium.

    The three-month average daily trading volume for this stock is approximately 0.545 million shares and the recent average daily trading volume is approximately 0.603 million shares. There are approximately 1.66 million short interest shares which places the days to cover at 2.76.

    Triumph Group, Inc. through its subsidiaries, is engaged in the design, engineering, manufacture, repair, overhaul, and distribution of aero structures, aircraft components, accessories, sub-assemblies, and systems.

    The company's listed competitors include Lockheed Martin Corporation, Northrop Grumman Corporation, and Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc..

    Financial information contained herein, was extracted from the company's most recent annual SEC filing for year ending March 31, 2014 and all prices are per share unless otherwise noted.

    At this time Wax Ink has no investment position in any company mentioned in this alert. This alert is for use by Accredited Investors as defined under Title 17, CFR §230.500, Regulation D.

    Wax Ink is a baseline equity research company not licensed or registered with any government agency focusing on long-term investment opportunities.

    Copyright © 2014 Wax Ink

    Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Stocks: TGI
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