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Playing the Ponzi
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Why “Playing the Ponzi”? I view the entire monetary and financial system as something of a Ponzi scheme. Starting with currency that is created as debt, and running straight through a global economic model that is based on infinite growth in a finite world. This won’t end well. I’d go a step... More
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Playing the Ponzi
  • XLP Facing Decade-Old Resistance 0 comments
    Apr 11, 2013 11:50 AM | about stocks: XLP

    One of the (perhaps) surprising twists of this liquidity-driven rally is that money is flooding into defensive plays. Consumer staples has outperformed consumer discretionary all year. Not exactly animal spirits. So it's a rapidly rising market where few of the participants trust the underlying fundamentals. The money is chasing yield and "safe" gains. The end of the rally does not appear to be imminent (maybe that's exactly why it could be), but I have no doubt that this game blows up disastrously eventually. But I digress… back to my point: XLP (Consumer Staples ETF) is facing resistance that dates back over a decade. It'll be interesting to see if maybe Staples stall here and Discretionary (animal spirits?) start to kick in. Anyway, here's the chart:

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Stocks: XLP
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