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Nasser Khraishi
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I hold a PhD in Electrical Engineering (Control Theory) from Stanford University and a Masters Degree in Engineering-Economic Systems (now called Management Science and Engineering at Stanford). I have been fascinated by the stock market since I was 14 (that is 37 years ago at writing). It has... More
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  • Week Ending October 26, 2013 0 comments
    Oct 28, 2013 5:55 AM

    The weekly index charts for the S&P500 (SPX), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and the NASDAQ Composite (COMP) indicate that we are continuing our upward march. The equity indices charts are still showing healthy OBV and MF patterns for both the daily and weekly charts. The weekly money flow actual statistics are still confirming that.

    As for 10-year bond yields (TNX) and the 30-year one (TYX), both continued their pullback from the recent highs, while the Gold ETF (GLD) had an overall good week. I am a bit confused here, and would change my previous belief that bond rates and Gold should revert to their (up-trending for rates, down-trending for Gold) longer moving averages in the coming weeks, as they are continuing their slow zigzagging journeys (upwards for rates, and downwards for Gold) to a more neutral stand and wait for more data and action.

    You see, we still need to get fresh data (CPI) now that the government shutdown is over, as the latest CPI numbers are still those for August. Further, the Federal Reserve Balance sheet history continued its upward march from $3,813,599 on October 16 to $3,839,033 million on October 23, clearly not abating. Further, this puts the September-to-October increase at more than $100,000 million; which is more than the $80+ we are counting on. In short, one needs to be careful in case The Fed is seeing something we are not.

    My usual tables follow. This is as of the end-of-day October 25, 2013.

    Index/ETF Symbol and NameDaily 3-EMA-7Weekly 3-EMA-7 Perceived Trend 
    SPXS&P 500 IndexUpUp Positive 
    DJIADow Jones Industrial AverageUpUp Positive 
    COMPNASDAQ Composite IndexUpUp Positive 
    GLDSPDR Gold Trust ETFNeutralDown Positive 
    VIXCBOE Volatility IndexDownNeutral Negative 
    TNXCBOE 10 Year Treasury Note Yield IndexDownUp Negative 
    TYXCBOE 30 Year Treasury Bond Yield IndexDownUp Negative 

    Important to note that TNX and TYX move in the opposite direction of the underlying treasuries (Positive for Yield is Negative for Bond price).

    The per equity tables are below. My Oscillator stands at 20, which is fairly bullish.

    Symbol and Company NameDaily 3-EMA-7Weekly 3-EMA-7 Perceived Trend Is a Current Holding?
    jcpJC Penney Company, Inc.DownDown Negative  
    jpmJPMorgan Chase & Co.UpUp Neutral Yes
    gsThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.NeutralUp Positive  
    nlyAnnaly Capital Management, Inc.UpDown Positive Yes
    moAltria Group, Inc.UpUp Positive  
    tAT&T Inc.UpDown Positive  
    vzVerizon Communications Inc.UpNeutral Positive  
    gpsThe Gap, Inc.DownDown Negative  
    anfAbercrombie and Fitch Co.NeutralDown Neutral Yes
    jwnNordstrom, Inc.UpNeutral Positive  
    disThe Walt Disney CompanyUpUP Positive Yes
    mcdMcDonald's Corp.DownDown Negative  
    mdlzMondelez International, Inc.UpUp Positive Yes
    baThe Boeing CompanyUpUp Positive  
    lmtLockheed Martin CorporationUpUp Positive Yes
    catCaterpillar Inc.NeutralNeutral Neutral  
    deDeere & CompanyUpNeutral Neutral  
    emrEmerson Electric Co.UpUp Positive  
    dowDow Chemical Co.UpUp Negative  
    admArcher, Daniels, Midland, Co.UpUp Positive Yes
    monMonsanto, Co.UpUp Positive Yes
    potPotash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc.NeutralDown Negative Yes
    pfePfizer Inc.UpUp Positive  
    bmyBristol-Myers Squibb CompanyUpUp Neutral  
    abcAmerisourceBergen CorporationUpUp Positive  
    aaplApple, Inc.UpUp Positive  
    intcIntel CorporationUpUp Positive  
    cscoCisco Systems, Inc.DownNeutral Negative  
    hpqHewlett-Packard CompanyUpNeutral Positive Yes
    cvxChevron CorporationNeutralNeutral Positive Yes
    bpBP plcUpUp Positive  
    nggNational Grid plcUpUp Positive Yes
    niNiSource, Inc.UpUp Positive  
    wmbWilliams Companies, Inc.UpUp Positive Yes
    wmWaste Management, Inc.UpUp Positive  
    cnwCon-way Inc.UpUp Neutral  
    csxCSX Corp.UpUp Positive Yes
    nscNorfolk Southern Corp.UpUp Positive  

    IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: It is important that you understand and agree that all information provided in this newsletter rely on publicly available data and tools with no guarantees of quality or suitability for any purpose, and that I can be long or short in any of my trading-set equities, at any time, with or without regard to indicated trends and described analytics, and that I do not give buy or sell or any other financial recommendations, and that any and all actions based on this commentary are solely the responsibility of the reader.

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