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Kevin M. O'Brien
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Options trader full-time, author, owner of www.kevinmobrien.com, a subscription-based service. Born in Chicago. Follow many stocks in the tech, financial, and agricultural sectors. Trade daily with a 5 Technical Indicator Strategy I developed. Also trade debit spreads, strangles, and also hold... More
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Kevin M. O'Brien
My book:
Breakthrough: A Consistent Daily Options Trading Strategy For Volatile Stocks
  • Trading Apple Using My Daily Options Strategy: Spotting The Lows 118 comments
    Apr 27, 2012 2:01 AM | about stocks: AAPL, BIDU, CF, CRM, FFIV, GOOG, NFLX, POT, SMA, VMW, WYNN

    When I began developing my daily options trading strategy over eight years ago, I initially began with only a few select stocks. The first was Potash (NYSE:POT). As time moved on, I began implementing more stocks into the strategy and eventually came up with the current list of nine (9) main stocks, which are basically ones that are over $100.00/share, have liquidity with their options, large daily price swings (ranges), and that also have a fair bid/ask spread. To read more on my strategy, please see this link here seekingalpha.com/article/304428-a-daily-options-trading-strategy-for-high-flying-stocks. Here is the link www.amazon.com/Breakthrough-Consistent-Strategy-Volatile-ebook/dp/B006Z4HSRI/ref=sr_1_1 to my e-book on this daily options strategy.

    I like to start every article with the basics on how to use this strategy with the five technical indicators. Here is a quick summary:

    • Bollinger Bands - I use the 12,2,2 as my parameters, i.e. (12) as the Simple Moving Average (NYSE:SMA) and standard deviation, (2) as the standard deviation of the top band, and (2) as the standard deviation of the bottom band. As a personal preference, I will not begin to even consider making a trade until I see the current price action move below the bottom band (calls) or above the top band (puts), but this is only one of the indicators needed out of five (5) total.
    • Relative Strength Index - I use a length of twelve (12). The RSI is an indicator that shows when a stock is at overbought and oversold levels. It has a range of 0-100. A reading on the RSI of 70 indicates overbought levels, while 30 is considered oversold. Some traders like to go even below the standard 30 level for a buy confirmation, but it is ultimately the trader's choice.
    • Intraday Momentum Index - The IMI is invaluable as far as I'm concerned for an options trader who gets in-and-out of positions quickly. The Intraday Momentum Index is similar to reading the Relative Strength Index, in that both of them have a range of 0-100. Again, 70 indicates overbought, while 30 is considered oversold. I also use the range of twelve (12) to correlate with the RSI. Again, it is the trader's preference as to what length works and what he or she likes to use. The Intraday Momentum Index is a very powerful technical indicator to use for any type of trader.
    • Money Flow Index - The MFI follows the IMI as the next indicator. The MFI is a momentum indicator that is used to determine the conviction in a current trend by analyzing the price and volume of a given security. The MFI is used as a measure of the strength of money going in and out of a security and can be used to predict a trend reversal. The MFI is range-bound between 0 and 100 (like the RSI and IMI) and is interpreted in a similar fashion as the RSI and IMI. The fundamental difference is that the MFI also accounts for volume, whereas the RSI only incorporates price. It is also different in the fact that instead of the number 30 indicating oversold levels, the Money Flow Index uses 20 as oversold and 80 as Overbought.
    • Full Stochastic Oscillator (do not use only the Fast or Slow Stochastic) - Used by many Forex traders, I find the FSO tremendously helpful in my trades as another indicator that confirms what the previous four have already done. Combining all of these indicators together really validates when it is an opportune time to buy. The FSO is a combination of the Slow Stochastic and the Fast Stochastic and is more advanced and more flexible than the Fast and Slow Stochastic and can even be used to generate them. Readings above 80 act as an overbought signal while readings below 20 act an oversold signal. The parameters I prefer to use are (10,6,6) for daily trading.

    The stocks that I currently use with this strategy with are the following:

    • Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) - is right up there with (NYSE:CF) as a favorite.
    • CF Industries - strategy works great with this stock.
    • Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) - Google works extremely well, too.
    • Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) - while I don't trade as frequently, I have always had success when I do.
    • Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN) - another stock that works very well.
    • Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) - look for put option opportunities.
    • VMware (NYSE:VMW)
    • F5 Networks (NASDAQ:FFIV)
    • Salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM) - look for put option opportunities.

    There is probably no other stock around that is so easy to spot a daily low point than Apple using this strategy. Understandably, it is very expensive to purchase Apple stock outright. Apple is currently trading at about $610.00/share, and just 100 shares alone requires substantial funds to put your money to work. Not only that, but you are basically hostage to the stock going up. My strategy aims to get in-and-out of your trade as quickly as possible, usually in minutes.

    Apple has become my favorite stock to trade using this strategy, followed closely by CF Industries. The key is to wait until the Bollinger Bands start expanding (never make a trade when the bands are narrow), and to get your trade ticket ready. Apple moves so fast and so quickly that any delay or procrastination in doing so may cost you some serious cash. It is also important that you wait for the other four indicators (the RSI, IMI, MFI, and FSO) to hit their buy points. Once that is reached, it is all about the Bollinger Bands. Never make a trade until the price line 9action) is below the bottom Bollinger Band. In fact, I like to let it "bleed", which means that when a stock is falling fast, that you allow it to sit below the bottom Bollinger Band, stay there just for a bit, and then pull the trigger on the call option trade.

    There have been numerous examples over the past six months when Apple was in a downtrend, riding the bottom Bollinger Band, and continued to fall, even though the price action fell below the bottom Bollinger Band. This is what I am talking about when I mention, "letting it bleed" until there is a stoppage in the stock price falling.

    Now that the implied volatility has come down after Apple reported earnings on Tuesday, the option prices are much cheaper than they were before the release. This allows for more contracts to be purchased without having to pay too high of a premium.

    To summarize, keep an eye on Apple at all times and have your trade ticket ready to go when you see Apple's stock price falling quickly, as a trading opportunity can literally present itself in minutes. There is no other stock that I use with my daily options strategy that gives the trader the chance to make a trade and have the high probability that they will be able to sell it just as fast.

    If you have any questions, please leave a comment or send me an e-mail.

    Disclosure: I am long AAPL, AKS.

    Themes: options Stocks: AAPL, BIDU, CF, CRM, FFIV, GOOG, NFLX, POT, SMA, VMW, WYNN
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Comments (118)
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  • jjwrph
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    You rock... Though I'm having a hard time finding situations where all 5 indicators are a go at the same time.... Any suggestions?
    27 Apr 2012, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • Kevin M. O'Brien
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks Joe. Opportunities will come, just be patient. Load up when you see the good ones.
    29 Apr 2012, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    For those having a hard time finding all indicators to line up- remember all indicators are lagging. While the developer of this strategy is content with the signals it produces and the profit it generates-- it misses many opportunities.
    11 Jun 2012, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Kevin M. O'Brien
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, it will miss opportunities, but also saves you from disaster trades. That is guaranteed.
    11 Jun 2012, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • monacanfootball
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    I totally agree, thank you for all of your articles. I have been having the same problem. I just thought it might be earning season might be harder to use the strategy.
    29 Apr 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Kevin M. O'Brien
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Earnings season doesn't effect the strategy, just avoid those stocks when they are due to report or any related companies. Thanks for your response.
    29 Apr 2012, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • premsangeet
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    Kevin,This is great. I have learnt a lot from your post. Thank you for educating me. The problem with me, I can't monitor throughout the day as I am at work. Do you have something similar that could be traded in the next day or so?
    30 Apr 2012, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • trader432
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for sharing your strategy Kevin. I have been thinking about trying it out for a while. Today I decided to put AAPL on a chart and watch it. What do you think of AAPL at 11:36 ET today (4/30/2012). That looked like a tradable event. If not, why? Thanks.
    1 May 2012, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • Kevin M. O'Brien
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks...Yes, it was. Could have been exited in a short-time frame.
    1 May 2012, 12:08 AM Reply Like
  • monacanfootball
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Article definitely helped me yesterday. I made that trade yesterday at 11:36 on apple as well. Also the article gave me an opportunity to update my list of stocks from the article.

     

    Thanks again!
    1 May 2012, 07:20 AM Reply Like
  • maxcash47
    , contributor
    Comments (20) | Send Message
     
    Other stocks you have used in the past are MA, PCLN, CMG and LNKD. Do you still use these? I know you like to keep your list to only 9 main stocks and then you have your list of minor stocks. I am just wondering if I should update my list?
    1 May 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Kevin M. O'Brien
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I use those except for CMG, which I sometimes will put on as an alternate.
    1 May 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • tomkid
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Played with your strategy today in AAPL, but took quicker profits at .30 instead of .60. Are you using near month options? Have you ever tried the strategy with weekly options?
    7 May 2012, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • applecinnamon
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    I am personally using June options at this point in time. I would actually go out to July closer to May expiration. Just in case anything goes wrong, you still have time. I don't believe Kevin would recommend weekly options for that reason.
    8 May 2012, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • tomkid
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for you comment. I recently read Kevin's book/article and you are correct, weeklies have to much negative theta, so if trade is working against you, lack of time is your enemy.

     

    I am still not confident with spotting trades, and frankly have pulled the trigger too soon on a 3 trades. 1 worked out luckily (PCLN), but had to hold overnight, one (AMZN) I bailed at BE, and LNKD one took a bath. Wonder if anyone confirm any trade signals from today with all 5 indicators firing? Were they call or put trades , which ticker and time of trade, thanks.
    9 May 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    "In case anything goes wrong". This is a day trading cash flow strategy. You do NOT want to get caught holding the bag with price going against you intraday and then trying to rationalize holding overnite simply because you have perceived time on your side due to farther dated options. Weekly options are by far the best for intraday-- premiums are much lower which means you will capture more of the intraday move of the underlying. The whole idea is to be flat at the end of the trading day-- weekly is only way to go to maximize profits while minimizing risks..provided you are deep itm.
    11 Jun 2012, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    The key is the eliminate theta impact altogether... one does this with deep ITM .90 delta or higher. In addition, IV becomes moot as well.
    11 Jun 2012, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Kevin M. O'Brien
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » A .90 delta is too high. You will be overpaying when you can buy more contracts. Trust me on that.
    11 Jun 2012, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • Kevin M. O'Brien
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I believe you are seriously misunderstanding this strategy. Why don't you send me an e-mail so I can inform you better. Thanks for your response.
    11 Jun 2012, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Overpaying? Quite the opposite-- deep ITM .90 and higher have the least amount of extrinisic value...majority is intrinsic. Farther out of the money has much more extrinsic cost and therefore a case can be made for overpaying...in addition you are exposed to more risk due to theta and IV fluctuations...not to mention higher commission costs. In AAPL as an example- a 3 contract position with a pierce of a lower expanded bb band in an area of strong demand with a return to the 8 ema or bb midline can easily be a 2-4 point move in minutes (AAPL ATR as you know is in 12-14 range daily). A tight stop such as a break of a pivot and you move on to the next trade-- however if one knows how to read a chart, the edge will be there and profits will easily negate losses. I used to trade lower deltas- trust me-- when you are wrong --- the losses can easily outweigh the gains-- % wise if I buy a $ 25 deep ITM option and AAAPL goes down $ 1.00 and I get stopped-- on a .9 delta I take less than a 4% loss-- on a .6 delta on an $ 7 option I take almost a 9% loss.... even greater if there is an IV crush.
    11 Jun 2012, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • Kevin M. O'Brien
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You are missing many key points: first among them: the bid/ask spread on the DITM strikes is usually way off. Did you think to take that into account? Want proof? Check Priceline (PCLN).
    11 Jun 2012, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    PCLN in general has poor bid/ask spreads...let alone the DITM. So does ISRG to name another. Not an issue at all with aapl, amzn, crm, cat, crm, ibm, lnkd to name a few...(decent OI and vol key obviously... only time spreads are too big when no Oi or vol) Goog can be a bit of a challenge but not nearly as bad as pcln. No point missed here.
    11 Jun 2012, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Kevin I had multiple posts that were deleted...what gives?
    12 Jun 2012, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Kevin did u receive my email requesting 3 recent trades for review? Entry/exit price; month/strike; time of entry/exit?
    12 Jun 2012, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • Abe781200
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    I think lots of us here would be interested in seeing a response to that. I've been reading these articles for some time and have seen previous requests for actual trades, but none have ever been produced. I think many would find it helpful to see actual recent trades made by the person who developed this strategy. It's somehow not very convincing to hear "I do great" when we don't even know what you actually do.
    14 Jun 2012, 02:32 AM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Amen....good point. No reason he should just email them to me...

     

    Kevin- how about an Instablog to the group here on some recent trades...anything over the last few weeks...but at least 3 or so to compare. I'm sure your busy but can you at least respond to this request?
    14 Jun 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Im still trying to figure out where some of my posts went... I know they were there for a few hours at least, as I received a private email from a member here who saw them as well and brought it to my attention. There certainly wasnt anything derogatory in them...so im perplexed.... Kevin...?
    14 Jun 2012, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • ssomu007
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    do you recommend any good sites to research options historical data just like stocks, i use stockchats for stocks, Also i have another question, does price of options move with the market price of the stock in same direction
    19 May 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • Kevin M. O'Brien
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Regarding the price of the options moving with the stock, it is dependent on the delta, which is basically how much the option price moves. For example, a strike price of .60 means that the option strike will move $0.60 for every dollar of stock movement (this would be a call option, the put would be expressed as -0.60). ThinkorSwim has some good historical data for options, but not a big fan of their charts themselves. Hope this helps. Thanks.
    19 May 2012, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • gsa958
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    What trading platform to you use.
    21 May 2012, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Kevin did u go AWOL???
    19 Jun 2012, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • Kevin M. O'Brien
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm a busy man, so no, not AWOL.
    20 Jun 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Any ETA on when u can provide some actual trade details per my previous posts? Anxious to dig deeper into the actual patterns... Thx
    20 Jun 2012, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • New Superhuman
    , contributor
    Comments (1182) | Send Message
     
    I tried this a couple of times - admittedly not with your exact indicators (I know, I know!) - and the stock kept dropping, forcing me to sell. Can you give me an idea of how long you will hold a position when it continues to move against you?
    21 Jun 2012, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    There is a reason why a stock will continue to drop...often times rather than a capitulation move outside normal pricing distribution bell curve with a quick reversal back to the mean...you will encounter an actual protracted downtrend-- of which most indicators will continue to register as "oversold". This is why you must ALWAYS have a reference point on your chart where you are proven wrong if price is breached (pivot extreme support to left of chart as example). Of course you should always use this point to position size so it is clear what u stand to lose.
    22 Jun 2012, 12:07 AM Reply Like
  • JohnYoga
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    Thank you, Kevin. I bought your book about a week ago. I will try it out when I get home from vacation.

     

    Make a Kindle book on the Reverse Condor strategy. I will buy that, too.

     

    Marc
    22 Jun 2012, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Bueller... Bueller....Buellerrrrr...

     

    I'm confused Kevin... U asked me to send u an email if I had questions... I did and days have passed with no response...

     

    The frequency of your posts is at an all time low since your tenure on Seeking Alpha...much like a stock chart can be used to pinpoint an all time low...

     

    Missing posts... failure to respond to pointed questions...

     

    Was your invitation genuine?
    23 Jun 2012, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • Abe781200
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    Sometimes, silence is the loudest answer.

     

    From these articles and discussion threads, I have read mixed results of people who have tried the strategy. I would love to hear from those, especially those who taken the time and spent the resources to train with Kevin, to know whether they are able to produce consistent results over time based on the strategy alone. I would also be interested in knowing of those who began using the strategy with a string of winning trades, how long the winning streak lasted until a big loss hit due to the lack of risk management the strategy offers. I read some excitement from people in the early stages of using the strategy, but there has been no word from them in these threads since.

     

    Although the strategy sounds good at fist, I have a hard time understanding how it could be a consistent winner if it does not pay attention to support and resistance levels and especially since it advocates AGAINST any risk management. Anyone trading without a predetermined stop is just asking for trouble. Since this article is about AAPL, I can name times over the past months when the stock had all the technical indicators at extreme levels and expanded Bollinger Bands, with the price well below the band, but a reversal to the mean never happened. The stock simply broke support on heavy volume and continued to slide. The strategy does not pay attention to that detail.

     

    Constructive criticism and critique is what makes all of us better traders. Let's face it: no system is perfect. Kevin, I'm sure many would like to hear you respond to the requests and comments in this thread.

     

    In the event that the silence prevails, then I guess I have my answer --- and the answer is not busyness. Someone who has the time to say he is busy has the time to quickly cut and paste some information.
    24 Jun 2012, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Interesting comments Abe-- many of my sentiments as well are reflected in your post. One my missing posts had referenced the risk that Kevin took holding an overnite position-- evidently there was more than enough time to see to it that my dissenting opinion was banished from public view... fortunately it was seen in advance of the defensive move by at least one member here who shared their thoughts and incidentally also had taken Kevin's training (this person will remain anonymous as it is irrelevant who it is)... the feedback was enlightening I must say.
    24 Jun 2012, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Kevin M. O'Brien
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » To respond to a few questions: first, not sure that any of you are aware, but when i do train, it is a wake-up at 4:00 in the morning until about 2pm PST. To say I am exhausted would be an understatement. Also, if you understood how many e-mails I receive daily, this would enlighten you , as well. When I do the one-on-on person training, I personally do not trade for myself (the daily trades, that is). Nor will I disclose what trades they make, as that is their own business. However, I will say this.: take the course with me. If you do not come out a better trader, I will gladly give you your money back-- NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

     

    To another point: if you missed the DNDN trade last week, sorry. This was a major homerun, and there continues to be many, no matter the market conditions. You just have to know what to look for and when.

     

    Many of the questions asked on this particular thread have been answered time and time again. Please see my original articles on this strategy (the CF and Volatile Stock one) and please check out the comment section. You will find many answers there.

     

    As far as Passion4 user, give me some time. I will finally have some free time and will be writing many articles, on this strategy and for earnings trades. So Bueller, Bueller, calm down, I'll respond soon enough.

     

    I would like to add one more thing: sometimes, it is impossible to break someone of bad habits or previous and enormous losses prior to meeting, hence the reference Passion made on his last post.
    24 Jun 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Ok great-- this is a start-- we have a symbol-- DNDN.

     

    Date/time of entry/exit?

     

    Contract month/Strike price?

     

    # of contracts?

     

    Surely this isn't too much to ask Kevin? It takes less than minute to get the details off your acct statement and less than another minute to post...

     

    Risk mgmt aside-- I have been asking u for details on profitable trades-- can you oblige? Im not concerned w/ future articles at the moment...you have to my knowledge never broken down in detail your actual trades...why? If u have- my apologies-- please point me to where...

     

    If not- how about now? Thx
    25 Jun 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • blueline2
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Like everyone else would like to see discussion of when to get out of losing trade i,e, risk management.
    24 Jun 2012, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • Kevin M. O'Brien
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well, that will always be dependent on what someone is working with to start, i.e. "capital"... a $200 loss to some may not be a big deal to some, but may another. If, for example, you have $25K in a trade. What one person may dump another may not. So your question is vague to say the least. Use this strategy correctly and you will not have to worry about that.
    24 Jun 2012, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • New Superhuman
    , contributor
    Comments (1182) | Send Message
     
    I think you're missing the point. Many people seem to be puzzled about when to take a loss. I even went back to one of the articles you reference above and this was all I could find: "but I am at a loss as to the questions about when he exits."

     

    Seems many people are at a similar loss.

     

    Since you're the expert, saying everyone has to find their own comfort level feels like you're leaving something out. What we're looking for is how you do it. How much of a move against you will you tolerate before getting out of the trade?
    25 Jun 2012, 05:42 AM Reply Like
  • Abe781200
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    In reference to a question about risk management, you responded: "Use this strategy correctly and you will not have to worry about that." You seem to be saying that this strategy is risk-free---at least for you. If that is true, have you never had to take a loss using your own strategy? If that were true, then you would not have to write or train others to make a living. Just go to the stock market and use it as your limitless bank account. Let's get real here. I think a legitimate question has been asked (multiple times), and it deserves a legitimate answer.
    25 Jun 2012, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • Kevin M. O'Brien
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Abe- First of all, if you knew who I traded for, you would sing a different tune. Secondly, have you ever heard of someone doing something that you know will help others in life? It's called a good deed. It's actually quite rewarding. Try it sometime.
    25 Jun 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Abe781200
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    Kevin- The questions and comments were not meant as a personal attack against you. I don't know who you trade for and that is irrelevant to this conversation. My question stands regardless. Please take the time to answer questions regarding risk management, and give examples of your personal trades from the past --your comment that you don't trade your own strategy anymore was a tad concerning--instead of getting defensive and evading the actual issue at hand. The questions in this thread were designed to help people. Many here are novices who are looking for a comprehensive day trading strategy. Without any education on risk management, people could get into serious trouble. You talk about not being able to break people's bad habits from prior to your course, but as a seasoned trader, don't you consider not having a stop a bad habit? I don't have a stake in any of this and don't have anything against you personally. I find your strategy intriguing and that's why I'm reading your stuff. If you don't manage risk at all, just say so, then we can all move on. I believe my query is legitimate. A little more transparency would indeed help people, if that's what you're wanting to do. If your strategy were absolutely foolproof and risk-free, we would all be making tons of money with it and nobody would have any questions. Sure, home runs are nice, but that's not the way most of us consistently make money. We try to make more than we lose and THAT is why we have to know how not to lose so much that it wipes out our gains, or worse. (By the way, good deeds are usually free... just saying'...)

     

    That's all from me. I do not want to waste yours and everyone else's time chasing the elusive. Good luck with everything.
    25 Jun 2012, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Kevin M. O'Brien
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Please do not misinterpret what I said... I trade my strategy all the time, just not when I am teaching as it becomes a conflict of interest. As an added note, I take my time, my costs, to help. So enough of that one. Have a great day, and don't bother with the strategy. It's not for you.
    25 Jun 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Oh brother...

     

    This is sad-- simple diagnosis eh & that frees u from addressing this poster any further? Lol interesting gig ur tryin to run here...

     

    True colors.... They never lie...
    25 Jun 2012, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Folks unfortunately unless Kevin divulges at a bare minimum his win rate and payoff ratio over a statistically meaningful sample size, we won't even be able to begin to speculate as to "how" he does it... because at this point Kevin has only in exhaustive detail explained what to look for on the chart for entry trigger... but not one mention to date on stop loss exit trigger based on the chart...ever. His only response to me on the subject when I asked at what point on the chart are you proven wrong (which since has also been deleted interestingly enough) was something to the effect of he was rarely wrong. His profit exit is not chart based either. I think by the sum of all the parts here we can only deduce that Kevin does not have a concrete stop loss exit strategy but rather is either going off of gut feel, tarot cards or ask cha cha. One would hope however at least he is incorporating some type of 1R based risk risk management position sizing system- but again we can only speculate.

     

    As for trying to incorporate some type of assessment on what risk management strategy you guys can incorporate with Kevin's setup with the information at hand-- it never hurts to subscribe to something such as:

     

    1- Max risk per trade (1R) = .5-2% of total capital (based on tolerance)
    2- Max capital per trade = 10% of total capital

     

    3 - Max daily loss limit - ? (to each his own)

     

    If you're good enough to get 60% win rate with 2:1 payoff ratio on a $.60/contract profit target and you trade 10 contracts the expectancy per trade is $ 240.... if you need to loosen the reins on a stop loss to get 60% success with a 1:1 expectancy is $120 and so on.
    25 Jun 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • Kevin M. O'Brien
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As explained to you, I have no obligation to divulge one single thing to you. Maybe if you actually seemed interested in understanding more about the strategy, instead of asking questions that only a scared traded would ask, I would reconsider, but I digress. See, I don't make too many mistakes. I am a patient trader, a key to the strategy. If you have doubts about that, then that's your problem, not mine. I know what I have here. I worked my tail off to get to this point, that's for sure.

     

    Want to know some facts? I haven't had a losing trade in almost a year. Yes, that's right, one full year. Asking questions such as what is my capital, and furthermore, what is the capital of those I personally trade for is something I will not do. I don't know you from Adam, so it's just not gonna happen. I initially intended to answer your e-mails, but I see where this is going. There are certain things that an article, or book, can never explain as well as seeing it live, in real-time. What I will tell you is that nobody understands Bollinger Bands as well as I do. That I can tell you.
    25 Jun 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Kevin your knee jerk retaliatory defense mechanisms are getting the best of you and your reading comprehension skills.

     

    I never once asked about your capiital or yout trainees' capital. I never once asked about your trainees' trades as u also eluded to in a prior post. Seriously-- do u have a clue how absurd it is for u to start your rant off the way u just did?

     

    "A scared trader"??? Lol-- I have REPEATEDLY ASKED U ABOUT TRADE DETAILS.... Heello???? No other questions. This isnt personal info! It would help me and others interested seeing exactly what the macro view looks like. Wow--I sure sound scared... I'd hate to think what u consider "terrified"...

     

    It appears your true colors are showing. U keep this up u will alienate many more readers than u already have...

     

    One thing for sure - your refusal to address numerous Qs that arr standard due dligence Qs is very telling.... Deleting posts too- sound like the scared trader is in your mirror...
    25 Jun 2012, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • jly004
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    I vaguely remember that Kevin commented not to use a stop loss order. I'm still working at my regular job so I haven't been able to try this strategy with real money (my cousin has though). However, tabbing back and forth between my virtual account, it does have a high probability of success from what I have seen. There are some times where the indicators signal buy call or put and the price continues in the direction instead of reversing. This happens since stock market is a fickle thing. Risk tolerance wise I would be expecting max loss limit I would take would be around .5-2% of investment. Profit % depends on how expensive the contracts are and how many you buy however it usually is higher then 2% of investment. The option prices sometimes dip a little bit more if you bought a little early that a stop loss might exit the position early. In addition, many times from the indicators, stock recovers after moving deeper into "oversold/overbought" after indicators are signaling buying of put/call. Basically a judgment call on the investors part I think. Risk management and research should be done also on users part. I wouldn't say this strategy is a 100% guaranteed to work without fail, but the probability of success is high enough for me to use when I'm done with my day job which will be in November.
    25 Jun 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • bennychico
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    I know personally I've done well so far with his strategy. I paper traded for a few weeks in May with good results...so I started trading real money early this month. Making 19% profit before commissions. Not bad for only trading for 2.5 weeks. I've made 10 trades (I don't trade full time) and only 1 has turned against me and ended negative despite being well over-sold (NFLX...I've kind of stopped watching that one since then because it's not been reliable). Three others came close, but I was able to at least break even and move on.

     

    I'm not an expert trader, but I've done better with this method than any other I've tried in the past. As long as I stick to the rules and don't force a trade that I'll just regret later. Maybe just beginner's luck...I don't know. But I'm hoping with more practice, I'll get better at it. Anyway, just my $.02
    Thanks for sharing your method, Kevin.
    25 Jun 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Folks-- I hope you take the time to truly reflect on the recent disturbing transformation Kevin has displayed over a period of the last few weeks.

     

    You see... the genuineness of a person will truly show thru thick and thin... thru good and bad... thru praise and critique. You need to be an objective judge & jury here and decide... Is Kevin reeeaally here to "help" us? "Scared trader"???? Is that the moniker an experienced trader wanting novices to succeed would coin someone for asking for more detailed trade examples???

     

    Here is the bottom line-- Kevin has no risk management by his own admission. He is using LAGGING INDICATORS for his final trigger... not pure price action on the hard right edge w/ supply and demand consideration. It is a reversion to the mean strategy with no discipline to speak of for the most part. He calls it a cash flow day trade strategy yet insists on trading 30-60 days out options strikes that have deltas that expose you to price decay from implied volatility regardless of the underlying movement--you pay far more for the extrinsic value of time yet will be out of the trade betore market close... yet he in factual error calls front weekly options with deltas that capture the entire movement of the underlying with virtually no impact on IV due to being primarily intrinsic value "expensive" merely because one can buy more contracts with his alternative! This is intellectually and mathematically backwards with much higher risk!

     

    Don't get caught up in his hyperbole-- he has proven by his own actions that u have every reason to be suspect of his intentions and reality as to his claims.
    26 Jun 2012, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Incidentally Kevin- I suggest you just leave my post as is-- it wont help u to delete this time.... Im better prepared for your game this time.
    26 Jun 2012, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • jwerder1
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    I am a novice to options trading so I was very intrigued by what I read about Kevin's system. I spent a week with him training to trade options daily. His system is very specific. Focused. Regimented. In regards to risk, I do realize that his methods aren't for the faint of heart. But the rewards attainable with his methods outweigh the risks. Kevin teaches calculated risk taking. As for the personal attacks posted recently I can only attest that after spending considerable time with Kevin recently that those disparaging remarks are unwarranted. I found Kevin to be quite genuine and unpretentious. He wants to help if you want to learn. Even after my training I still speak with him almost everyday with questions, comments or concerns. Thank you for sharing your knowledge and time with me Kevin. I appreciate it. And I understand and appreciate what you are trying to do. I am sure there are many others that do as well.
    26 Jun 2012, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    If u arent a shill created by the author of this blog-- one thing I am 100% sure of-- u r in no position whatsoever to speak to the risk vs reward of options as a novice... Lol

     

    Wow...
    26 Jun 2012, 01:00 AM Reply Like
  • Kevin M. O'Brien
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You should work for Apple (AAPL), sincerely.
    26 Jun 2012, 01:35 AM Reply Like
  • New Superhuman
    , contributor
    Comments (1182) | Send Message
     
    Hi jwerder1, can you expand a bit about how exactly the system is "specific, focused, regimented"?

     

    Also, how is the risk "calculated"?
    26 Jun 2012, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • Abe781200
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    Wow, I am truly in shock. I really hate to be a witness to this transformation that I have seen. I really, really wasn't expecting this. I am speechless.

     

    To the author: Sir, we only asked a question. Seriously, you need some help.

     

    Good luck to you.
    26 Jun 2012, 01:49 AM Reply Like
  • New Superhuman
    , contributor
    Comments (1182) | Send Message
     
    I have to agree I am shocked at this thread. Several people were only asking the author to provide details of his exit strategy - how far he would let the market move against his position before taking a loss.

     

    Why does that create this vicious, angry attack on your readers?
    26 Jun 2012, 03:56 AM Reply Like
  • Abe781200
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    One more question:

     

    Are you intoxicated?
    26 Jun 2012, 01:50 AM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Lol "jealous"??? Quite the opposite..

     

    Being a full time directional options trader, I was very intrigued with your strategy initially because of these 4 factors that are virtually identical to a core strategy of mine:

     

    1- Bollinger bands with specific emphasis on expanded bands with significant piercing of outer band

     

    2-Avoidance of taking trades where stairstep hugging of outerband occurs

     

    3- Daytrading options for cash flow

     

    4- Majority of your underlying basket list are in my core list.

     

    This is where the similarities end. I use weeklies... .90 deltas or higher. If going long I use key support levels on a 15 min chart with 5 min reversal candle for entry and key 5 min resistance levels for profit targets with the 60 min chart in a current uptrend (vice versa for shorts). I am correlated with the indexes and the trade is even a higher conviction when they on a 5 min chart are also capitulating with large extended range candles with a large bb pierce. I understand nuances of an outer bb pointing up/down/flat. I am position sized for 1R with minimum 1:1 on 1st target with my stop loss dicated in advance of trade based on where I will be proven wrong if price is breached at key pivots on 15 min chart. The only indicator I use is CCI - however it is for confirmation only and not used for the lagging quality of overbought/oversold signals but rather for forward looking divergence... but will certainly not pass on a trade if confirmation isnt there.

     

    So based on the above info-- while I had critique of your system-- I had many sincere questions and was interested in analyzing some actual trades and what the charts looked like based on my multiple timeframes with S/R taken into account to see if I could further improve.

     

    That was my intention... not for you to have a meltdown of epic proportions.
    26 Jun 2012, 05:18 AM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Folks - be aware this post was in response to a post from Kevin that is now missing... In it he calls me a buffoon, a sham, a lower case capital "sir"... and says I must be a bad trader and am jealous.. Fyi. Looks like I need screenshots now lol
    26 Jun 2012, 05:22 AM Reply Like
  • Kevin M. O'Brien
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I make very clear in the articles here on SA what the exit strategy is. Pay attention.
    26 Jun 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    A bold wonton lie.

     

    Exit strategy for PROFIT yes.... NOTHING FOR LOSS! Smoke and mirrors yet another sign of a hidden agenda...
    26 Jun 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • gumbuster
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    Kevin, I wanted to take a moment to thank you for sharing your daily options system. Following your rules I have been very happy with the results. Since your training this past March I've done 20 trades for over $32,000 net commissions, no losses. Some of these trades were completed in as little as 10 minutes. Amazing.

     

    During my first month I took it very slow passing on some great opportunities and trading a small number of contracts. But each day my confidence grew with the help of the group chat room and the guidance you constantly provide.

     

    I honestly believe your training program was the best money I've spent within the investing environment. You taught me how to consistently trade profitably and with minimum time exposure, which is important in todays crazy market.

     

    I also appreciate how available you are when I have a question. Phone, email, text message, chat room. Almost like you are next door and yet your are 2000 miles away.

     

    I wouldn't hesitate to recommend your training to anyone interested in this type of trading.

     

    Thank you!
    26 Jun 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    LOL.... Another shill creation... I love it...

     

    Just as certain patterns in charts can be very reliable under the right market conditions... so too patterns in posts when the heat gets a little too hot for the author...

     

    Anyone care to take a look at this thread and pick off how many 1-2 comment posters have shown up at ideal opportune times to offer praise and worship?

     

    Pure coincidence.... or thought provoking pause that there might be manipulation here....?
    26 Jun 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Folks--for an example of how powerful price action using supply and demand is on a chart as your number one criteria-- look at AAPL today on a 5 minute chart. AAPL established a low of 568.81 today at the open... now go back in time to 6/14-- there you will find a strong level of demand where price reversed for a significant move up from 569.02... price had not revisited that level prior to this morning. So price briefly breaches that low this morning with a capitulation red extended range candle and significant pierce of lower BB and reverses for a $ 5.50+ move. Where does it stop? $ 574.49. Why does it stop there? Nothing to do with indicators. Look to the left from yesterday-- big capitulation move up with a large bb pierce to $ 574.60...then boom, price reverses for over a $ 2.00 move... goes back up but fails to make a higher high..continues to go lower from there. Fast forward to today-- the next candle after the pierce is a huge extended range candle to the downside...the initial move over the next 15 mins is $ 3.50 approx.
    Now price eventually revisits the low of the day but stops $ .19 short at $ 569! Despite no bb pierce this time-- a valid long entry exists here. Why? Again because of demand on the chart and how price left that level. A $ 2.46 move back up. Now keep going to the right of the chart-- price revisits again... WITH A PIERCE! Why does price breach the low this time? RELATIVE WEAKNESS.... AAPL started to make lower highs while the market was making higher highs... PRICE DIVERGENCE. Multiple BB pierces occur at this point as it continues to go lower. There was no reason to go long here due to PRICE ACTION AND THE CHART INDICATING WHERE TRUE SUPPLY/DEMAND IS LOCATED. However-- when AAPL finally makes a new low of $ 567.33 it reverses...why? Look back to 6/14... THE LOW OF THE DAY WAS $ 567.26!! From there price reversed with 3 large candles back up to $ 572.25...all the way to the upper band with another bb pierce! Price then reverses again down to the $ 569.02 mentioned earlier.... because SUPPLY EXISTED OVERHEAD from earlier on 6/14.

     

    I realize this may be difficult to follow - but the moral of the story is there is no better indicator of future price action than supply and demand on a chart. Indicators lag... I guarantee you Kevin's indicators wouldve had you in the trades when you shouldnt have been... and had you in trades late when you shouldve been in much earlier.
    26 Jun 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Incidentally-- a stop loss rule of thumb example can be $ .20-.30 below the pivot highs/lows mentioned in my previous post. Often times you will see brief overshoot candle wicks past pivots before the reversal occurs....(MMs often like to create "bull/bear traps" to suck breakout traders in)... this fluff amount typically will keep you in the trade...

     

    Proper position sizing from your stop loss location ensures if proven wrong you know what your risk is.... EACH AND EVERY TRADE.
    26 Jun 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    I would also like to show you why resistance levels can fail. Take a look at LNKD today. The pivot high yesterday was $ 105.78. Price hit $ 105.82 and was able to reverse $ .76 despite no meaningful bb pierce to speak of... but due to strong relative strength to the market couldnt go any further. Price revisits the level again... this time with a a bb pierce... however BLOWS past the level with large extended range green candles..significant BB pierces! Price retreats back within the band but continues to make new highs (not hugging the band however). Why did resistance fail? BECAUSE OF RELATIVE STRENGTH! Readers-- this is soooooo powerful! This is where breakout traders win big time. Everyone has probably heard that breakouts fail most of the time. NOT TRUE-- IT DEPENDS ON THE SETUP AND MANY OTHER FACTORS! THEY HAVE A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY IN SCENARIOS SUCH AS THIS ONE. This is a perfect example of why reversion to the mean strategies such as Kevin's will fail... despite numerous indicators showing overbought. Stocks with relative strength and weakness will continue to register oversold/overbought.... DONT RELY ON THEM.
    26 Jun 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • tofisher
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    @Passion can you post a screenshot of these trades for us to see when and where you exited?
    27 Jun 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    tofisher what are you referring to...? I provided detailed analysis on how supply and demand levels impact significant turning points in price... as well as an example of how a stop loss could be used. Did you have a question specifically on that?
    27 Jun 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • gumbuster
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    Hey Passion...
    Thanks for taking the time to reply to my post. I didn't really waste my time reading any of them though. I was too busy trading and making another successful daily option trade. Today it was FB. Took a little longer than most trades I do, (about 2 hours), but still made $1500 on this one. How did you do today? Don't bother answering it really doesn't matter to me. I'm sure most readers have seen your kind of useless posting on other forums. As a matter of fact please disregard this post. I don't want to be accused of feeding the trolls.
    26 Jun 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Kevin M. O'Brien
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You're the man Ed. Thanks buddy.
    26 Jun 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Hey jstear... Uh i mean Ke... Uh... ???... do u know how easy it is to post a screenshot?
    26 Jun 2012, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • tofisher
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    @Kevin do yourself and all of us a favor and just ignore your newly acquired troll. I for one appreciate you taking the time to freely outline what your strategies are. If they work for you congratulations. As with life in general it's up to me to do my due diligence to figure out if they work for me. It is so unfortunate that SeekingAlpha is becoming such a troll haven.

     

    Please do keep all the informative posts coming. For those of us not looking for a complete handout we really appreciate you taking the time to make us think.

     

    For the trolls, the beauty of SA is that you can write and publish your own articles. It is a great place for you to post all your trade screenshots, account balances and other 'proof' that your system is better. I look forward to reading them all and hopefully making a few bucks off your systems if they work for me.
    27 Jun 2012, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    "troll"???

     

    Are you so blind that you can't see that Kevin has been promoting a strategy with the intent to make money off of an ebook as well as training... yet claims he is doing this with good intentions to help people... yet refuses to address rudimentary principles of trading such as sound risk management... in addition to complete refusal to provide any trade specifics whatsoever.

     

    Are you so naive as to see absolutely nothing wrong with that picture???

     

    Due diligence is being attempted by numerous individuals on this thread--- in return Kevin has addressed none of it but rather had a meltdown that is shocking to say the least... not to mention fabricating fictitious posters at opportune times in an attempt to save his credibility. Again-- if you cant figure that out you've got issues.
    27 Jun 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • tofisher
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    Yes a troll Passion. If you disagree with an author or believe a methodology of trading is bunk then please write an article disproving the method itself rather than pretending the author 'owes' you anything. Better yet write an article setting a new bar by showing your trade confirmations using the methods you outline above as being superior. I promise if you show a superior strategy with the associated documentation showing your trades you won't have to worry about other folks since everyone will be following you rather than them.

     

    With your vast knowledge and confidence I'm sure it would make SA better rather than using a lack of response from an author as a reason in and of itself to spam away relentlessly.

     

    Here is the definition of troll for you BTW.
    Troll (Internet), an internet term for a person who, through willful action, attempts to disrupt a community or garner attention and controversy through provocative messages
    27 Jun 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • premsangeet
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    Passion4DeepITM,
    I have been following Kevin for some time. I have learnt a lot from him. This thread is for learning about and discussing about his strategy. Please do not make personal comments against him.
    27 Jun 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    "Provocative messages"??? LOL

     

    We are talking about strategy trading specifics!!! You are out of line. Perhaps you have a hidden agenda of your own and are somehow personally tied to Kevin...who knows.

     

    The bottom line is Kevin is the one who had extended his offer to email with questions and displayed his willingness to help... it turns out that was not really the case now was it? Instead he can only fraudulently create fictitious shills and call people names and poke fun at grammar. Do you condone such behavior? Making up a poster is deception-- how are we to trust this guy when he does that let alone cant provide a trade detail yet touts himself as the greatest?

     

    I have no desire to make a buck of SA nor do I have the desire to write an article.... I just gave you a wealth of info in a series of 3 posts that one can take all the time they need to see the same patterns over and over with nothing but pure price action and pivot S/R levels... there's my article.

     

    You are seriously out of line.
    27 Jun 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    I already told u in exact detail why I was interested.... how u interpret it is meaningless to me. What has truly been meaningful however is your revelation of your true character for all here to see. The private messages I've received of ones who have had first hand in person experiences with you have merely confirmed that character. Im sure u are more than aware of the alienation you have created with former "students".

     

    I find it rather amusing and ironic at the same time how say u wont be responding to me anymore...the reality is you haven't garnered a relevant response in the last 4 weeks.... why would I think that would change now?

     

    I take pride in one thing-- exposing you for who Kevin Obrien really is--- a disengeniious person with a hidden agenda....one that will stoop so low as to create fictitious posters to further that agenda.

     

    If you're going to promote a product or service-- you should be willing and able to address both consenting & dissenting opinions and questions professionally...and expect that not all will agree with you. Calling people names...condescension.... criticizing grammar, fabricating an army of fake proponents, deleting critique etc...it reveals ultimately that your strategy ebook & training really isnt all that it's made out to be -- your failure to address numerous due diligence questions says more than anything else...and points to the fact that you are only in this for pure greed in pitching your wares. U see- I make nothing from being here-- u may want to get used to that concept going forward.

     

    I only request one final thing from you-- please dont have any of your other fictitous minion shill posters respond either-- it really is too pathetic for me to handle much more of that fraudulent display.

     

    Oh and as to your well wishes for me to get "burned"... not something I need to worry about with a 1R risk mgmt system in place... unfortunately for your lack of risk mgmt controls that cant be said for many of your students... they have you to thank for that... that's as novice as it gets - and is the single biggest reason for a blown account.

     

    Cant wait for the next article.
    27 Jun 2012, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Joeriii
    , contributor
    Comments (201) | Send Message
     
    You're the reason why they should make an ignore list --'
    28 Jun 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Joerill- I must question your agenda...

     

    Kevin has created multiple aliases and used them as shills to give a false impression of the success of his strategy... in addition he has deleted posts that either were of a newly created shill that I called on the carpet, or that contained content that exposed weakness in either his strategy or his ability to address a concern by multiple readers... all this chicanery in an attempt to further his cause and stop the damage that he has ultimately created for himself, of which I merely brought to more visible light.

     

    Answer this- do you condone this behavior? If so-- can you explain in detail how you justify this... unless of course you practice the same practices...
    28 Jun 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Kevin M. O'Brien
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
    28 Jun 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Hey Kevin-- care to explain to readers yet why you have NEVER POSTED DETAILS OF A SPECIFIC TRADE?

     

    Why does the cat still have your forked tongue on the DNDN "home run"?

     

    You see-- anyone who truly made a successful trade would be more than willing and able to do so--- they would be proud for all to see the details...

     

    WHY AREN'T YOU? Got something to hide?

     

    Answer the question to the masses Kevin-- you can ignore me-- believe me your reader base wants to know...
    28 Jun 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • Abe781200
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    I like to read but seldom comment but I really hate that Passion4 seems to be left as the lone voice around here that makes any sense. I can only imagine many who read this and can only shake their heads in disgust. Someone who is credible does not need others going to bat for them. Credibility is earned and is evident in itself. Kevin is great at using the straw man argument, so he's probably going to answer this by picking on some detail to distract or to call names and not address the real question.

     

    Really and truly, those instablogs of "home runs" like EXPE... why didn't you write an article on that ahead of time instead of writing an article on GOOG at around that same time which was clearly a loser? Anyone can claim to have hit it big by looking in the rearview mirror. All of those things speak for themselves.

     

    And I absolutely agree with Passion4. Know your goals. If you are in a day trade, get flat by the end of the day. Converting it into a swing trade is not smart. At that point, you are playing the lottery. You may very well win big, but a few of those gone south and you could blow your account.

     

    Unlike Passion4, I am not looking forward to the next article. I'm getting too old for this stuff. I'm moving back to reading articles where authors will actually have a civil discussion with their readers.
    28 Jun 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Kevin M. O'Brien
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Understand that not every article is published. Thank you.
    28 Jun 2012, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • blueline2
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Papertraded for a week -12 trades with no losses.However had two drawdowns that recovered after holding for a couple of days.one(GOOG) initially wiped all the previous gains which caused me to think of a stop loss strategy. I was also
    was cutting some of my gains short.
    Reviewing my trades I think I may need to go more into the money to get a better delta.I also may have have not been to accurate with the signals re. having signals all at the same time.
    I also learned more about options and see the possibilities.
    28 Jun 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    blueline--

     

    Number one rule when day trading-- NEVER EVER let a day trade turn into a swing trade! Your entry was based on a short term move in a desired direction-- don't let emotions get in the way by trying to justify why it would make sense to hold overnite... especially on a highly volatile high beta stock like GOOG... one big gap in the wrong direction can kill you.
    28 Jun 2012, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Hey blueline-- you are on the right track with a stop loss implementation. Try to look to the left of the chart for support when going long-- give yourself some wiggle room-- perhaps $ .20 or so below the pivot-- if it breaks you are out.

     

    For profit target-- let the chart show you where the potential is above-- resistance overhead will typically stop a stock dead in its tracks for a pullback... if resistance isnt nearby-- instead of $ .60 to $ 1.00 you could be looking at much more potential... but conversely-- if resistance shows that it's only $ .30 away-- setting a $ .60 profit target isnt realistic.

     

    Remember-- Kevin takes NONE OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT. In addition- he does not consider market conditions-- as testified by knowledge of a recent trade he recommended on a weak stock that was in a descending triangle while the indexes where in an ascending triangle... this is RELATIVE WEAKNESS... don't go long. Evidently Kevin has no problem with it. Probabilities say majority of time your support will break and oversold indicators will stay that way for some time. Don't take Kevin's mindset that "oversold is oversold-- it's gonna bounce... hold it overnite" or "the blank blank sector is beaten down..its gonna bounce" etc... that is novice trading. Stop losses are a business expense - remember that. Key is keep them small for success.
    28 Jun 2012, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Kevin M. O'Brien
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yet you condone weekly options? C'mon son.
    28 Jun 2012, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    For an intraday trade opp. there isn't any reason to trade anything but....

     

    Obviously u disagree... so no better way for readers to decide what offers the best risk to reward than to compare an actual trade setup... here's your opp to give a real trade example with specifics previously requested--I will be more than happy to outline in detail a weekly ditm series strike for the exact underlying setup that will prove there isnt a single reason to be trading 30-60 days out.

     

    Let's go Kevin- it's time to prove who's right and who's wrong -- give your readers some faith at least that u have confidence in your own strategy to subject it to a "stress test" if u will..

     

    What say u???
    28 Jun 2012, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • Davefromthebay
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Wow!!!
    28 Jun 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • Kevin M. O'Brien
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Indeed.
    28 Jun 2012, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • jstearns2424
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    FYI, Kevin didn't create this account, I've been reading/trading his stuff for months, have there been losses on his trades sure, but to be 100% honest at one point in time they were all winners, how an individual decides to manage their own trades is up to that individual person. I just don't see where your argument has any validity. If there is, was, or ever will be any one person who could guarantee a retail trading strategy I assure you they wouldn't be writing about it here. The author has a passion for the markets and options trading. He writes his OPINION and OFFERS his advice. Lastly, I haven't been on here in days and am shocked at how much time you have on your hands.
    29 Jun 2012, 11:53 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    LOL I love the "to be 100% honest..." line...

     

    IOW- most of the time you aren't 100% honest unless you preface a forthcoming statement with that line eh?

     

    The facts are "jstearns" that u posted with derogatory comments on my screen name among other things on the 26th....hmm....who else has done the same thing....hmm... Then I posted a reply exposing the obvious.... I refreshed and both posts were displayed.... 10-15 mins later-- GONE. But of course-- rather than immediately replying back then to refute that this isn't a fictitious shlll account-- u show up now.... Too busy u may say? Plenty of time to post.... wait a few minutes then delete eh...? LOL u r not very bright...

     

    Post a trade Kevin.
    30 Jun 2012, 05:59 AM Reply Like
  • Frank Quinn
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    Omigod, I feel like I'm reliving fourth grade. I would love for P4D and Kevin to post trades side-by-side. Chances are, we'd see two relatively profitable/successful strategies for trading options.
    1 Jul 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Actually more similar to those one sided debates in college where one team just easily rolls over in defeat-- pathetically short on substance & valid argument... full of name calling and subjective rhetoric...
    1 Jul 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • bennychico
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    AAPL @ 11:02 today...just 12 minutes ago. Missed getting in by only a few seconds! I stepped away from my screen for a few minutes, noticed it when I came back and quickly had a buy order, but didn't get it filled in time. It's frustrating when you see the perfect setup and realize you're too late. Would have made a nice little profit in 10 minutes time. Oh well...on to the next trade!
    2 Jul 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • gumbuster
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    bennychico,
    I saw that setup too,12:02 eastern time. Had my trade ticket ready to submit when my 90 year old dad rang my doorbell to visit. I knew if I placed the order it would have been difficult to monitor the trade under these conditions so I passed on this one. But normally I would have been all over a setup like that. I love trading aapl with this method. Always fast money.
    For those who follow Kevin's method the indicators at 12:02 were
    Bollinger Bands: nice break below the bottom band
    RSI: 20.58 (target area below 30, the more the better)
    IMI: 14.73 (target area below 30)
    MFI: 7.69 (looking for below 20)
    Full Stochastic: 10.23,11.48 (both #'s below 20)
    I memory serves, the Aug 580 Call was trading at 29.50 @12:02 when I saw the setup. By 12:42 the same call was trading over $1 higher, even higher near 3pm but I would have been out much sooner. I wanted that trade but another will come along.
    2 Jul 2012, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Kevin it's time u stopped posing under different aliases and stepped up to the plate and responded to my challenge.
    3 Jul 2012, 12:08 AM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    The Aug 580 call (approx .59 delta) traded at 29.50 at 12:03... not 12:02. This was after a decline in AAPL's price of $ .75 down to $ 589.01 from $ 589.76 at 12:02 due to lack of true demand on the chart (price actually continued to decline an additional $ .62 before finding true support at 12:04 which was easily visible just below to the left of the chart). At 12:42 AAPL traded at $ 590.67... the Aug 580 call traded at $ 30.65... which represented a 3.9% return.

     

    The front weekly July 575 call (approx .93 delta) traded at $ 15.20 at 12:03. At 12:42 the July 575 call could've easily been liquidated for $ 16.70 on the bid... for a return of 9.8%...or over 2.5x the return of the Aug 580 call.

     

    I think you get the picture however folks... Less capital in the market reduces your exposure to systemic risk and outlier black swan events... DITM virtually eliminates IV risk--- the DITM has approx $ 14 of true intrinsic value...with only $ 1.19 extrinsic- the Aug options in contrast have over $ 20 of extrinsic value!!!!! Why do you need this for an intraday strategy??? Do you realize what an IV crush will do to that premium???
    3 Jul 2012, 03:19 AM Reply Like
  • Joeriii
    , contributor
    Comments (201) | Send Message
     
    Dont you have better things to do than just spamming this page?
    You posted over 45 posts on this page omg???
    3 Jul 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Joeriii,

     

    How about posting something constructive and respond to the essence of the content....?

     

    It never ceases to fascinate me how those that have nothing to say seem to prove they have nothing to say by advertising it....
    3 Jul 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Joeriii
    , contributor
    Comments (201) | Send Message
     
    ... you posted like 50 comments on this page. What have you achieved so far?
    3 Jul 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Joerii-- can you tell me why price in IBM reversed this morning $ .06 short of taking out the LOD from yesterday? MMs know where stops are... right? Any idea whatsoever why they didnt sweep the "amateurs" who placed their stops there?
    3 Jul 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Joeriii
    , contributor
    Comments (201) | Send Message
     
    QUOTE

     

    How about posting something constructive and respond to the essence of the content....?

     

    UNQUOTE
    3 Jul 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Kevin are we deleting posts again?

     

    Earlier Joerii asked what I have accomplished by posting here...

     

    I responded to the effect that I have received private emails from readers thanking me for the input, that they have appreciated the insight, and that further questions were asked for clarification- if which mutually beneficial discussions have resulted-- a win win for all involved-- I get more proficient and others advance with further learning.

     

    Readers on the main board have been stimulated to pause and ask additional questions of Kevin as part of their due diligence.... however to date Kevin has yet to address the issues at hand.

     

    I have exposed Kevin for being less than forthright and unwilling to respond to pointed questions... instead his true colors have come to light as he has rudely responded with useless minutiae and subjective petty criticisms relative to grammar, name calling etc...

     

    In addition Kevin has been exposed for being deceptive by posing under other aliases in an attempt to further his cause and counter the critique.

     

    Now it seems that post is gone... Joerii had responded sarcastically something to the effect of "A public hero"... Joerii will u back me up on that? (of course if you are also a fabricated shill for Kevin-- I wont be counting on that...)

     

    This time I am cutting and pasting my post Kevin so I can easily repost if you choose to delete again...
    3 Jul 2012, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • tomkid
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    I have been trading this strategy, or at least attempting to trade it. I have had moderate success with profitable trades while having my a#@ handed to me on a trade or 2 wiping out previous profits, so I am flat. I think Passion4DeepITM brings up some legitimate questions and am instituting Max risk per trade (1R) = 2% of total capital, Max capital per trade = 10% of total capital, and Max daily loss limit per an earlier post thanks.

     

    I am sorry to see what could be an opportunity to learn and grow turned into useless banter. I am interested in hearing more about how people are managing their risk.
    3 Jul 2012, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Tomkid,

     

    While a risk mgmt system such as what u r implementing is exactly the right thought process to have-- for it to be truly effective it should be based on proper position sizing. The only way this can br accomplished properly is to be able to identify on the chart where u r proven wrong. What u dont want to do is simply have R based on a fixed% loss amount-- because u could potentially be exiting a trade where price finally found true demand-- case in point the AAPL trade mentioned earlier-- the entry signal was poor due to support being lower on the chart... price went down over $ 1.40 apprx-- that couldve stopped u out just as price reversed.
    3 Jul 2012, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • tomkid
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    I agree with proper position sizing, but in the AAPL example where would have drawn support ? Around $588.50?
    5 Jul 2012, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    The demand zone I believe goes down to 587ish... look at the completed candle on a 5 min chart ending on 10:05 est I believe ( on an iphone using tos chart app so its a bit cumbersome to read but i think thats your pivot to trade against.
    5 Jul 2012, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • Passion4DeepITM
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    So the point here is if u entered well above around 589 with just a %based stop based on decay of option price - if ur % stop happens if aapl hits 587.50 - u would be exiting so close to where major demand is--- the last place u want to sell.

     

    Rule of thumb- locate support first- draw ur line in sand then position size based on distance between entry and stop location. TOS allows u to plug in option & stop loss on stock & will give u estimated loss per contract. Then just figure how many contracts based on ur R1. Since .90 delta options dont deal with high risks of iv & time - the estimate is very accurate... but i always add a fluff factor for slippage just in case-- better to err on side of caution.
    5 Jul 2012, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • tomkid
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Very helpful thanks. I totally get and agree with 90 delta options to mitigate risks of IV & theta. Cheers!
    6 Jul 2012, 01:05 AM Reply Like
  • Tech Buff
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    Kevin thank you for your email reply.

     

    As you have probably figured out by now-- I am a big fan of Apple. But in the past I have not had much success in trading the options.

     

    I am very interested in your system but cant really afford it at this point in my financial situation... would you have any opinion on what would be a good entry point that you would be willing to share? I am thinking 60 days out to catch the move that I think will occur based on the September product launch event... Im frankly confused since its near all time high on when to get in.

     

    Thx Seth
    27 Aug 2012, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • pgain
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Wow what a post just read the whole thingCome on man take off the boxing gloves it's all good stuff here.
    I purchased Kevin's book the other day and read it in one day.
    Kevin for all you hard work and time writing articles for us traders was only happy to pay 10 bucks for a well written e book and support your work.
    Have been trading options a long time so was easy to pick up his system. I really like the concept. But having four overbought and oversold indicators isn't that just the same thing as looking at one overbought oversold indication. Correct me if I am wrong but they are always going to look very similar I trade weeklies all the time.
    If you use at 50 or 60 delta on a weekly strike that could be the risk management. The option expiring would always be max loss ie stop loss. And if the trade is a day trade only a couple hours the theta should not even be a issue.
    Over all like you system but think a second look to apply weeklies to the strategy could only help improve risk / reward.
    Kevin your thoughts.

     

    Thanks
    7 Oct 2012, 01:27 AM Reply Like
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