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I seek to liberate investors from the chains of borrowed opinions by teaching metric awareness that leads to the formation of your own opinions. I lack the usual attributes that qualifies me to write on investing. I am a retail investor. But I do gather, process and analyze significantly more... More
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  • Consumer Staple Earning Projection Accuracy & RRRs 1 comment
    Aug 19, 2013 8:02 PM

    The is the second in a series of earning projection accuracy spreadsheets. These are provided to make the point that the earnings accuracy of MLPs is lacking. That results in higher RRRs - and more attractive "yield plus CAGR" stats.

    Projection accuracy is very high for most of the stocks in this sector. Due to having high CAGR projections - there is more risk in these stocks compared to the Health Care REITs. This is a sector where the "two birds in a bush" are expected to be caught. But the RRRs are higher. Why? Their valuations are justified only by a high dividend CAGR projection.

    Changes in EPS estimates by Year:
    Some Companies Have Assets That Produce More Predictable EPS Projections

     

     

     2010201120122013Accuracy14 EPS
    compBeginningEndingChangeBeginningEndingChangeBeginningEndingChangeBeginningCurChangeRatingSpread

    ADM2.803.069.3%2.913.4719.2%2.972.30-22.6%3.112.27-27.0%3.0%28%
    CPB2.472.470.0%2.512.541.2%2.372.443.0%2.542.612.8%1.0%-9%
    KO1.721.751.7%1.921.920.0%2.072.01-2.9%2.192.10-4.1%1.0%7%
    CAG1.751.74-0.6%1.751.750.0%1.811.841.7%2.082.163.8%1.0%4%
    CL2.422.420.0%2.532.52-0.4%2.762.68-2.9%2.952.83-4.1%1.0%6%
    INGR2.523.2428.6%3.624.6829.3%5.115.579.0%5.875.26-10.4%2.0%18%
    CLX3.944.247.6%4.153.93-5.3%4.084.100.5%4.314.310.0%1.5%4%
    FLO0.710.66-7.0%0.740.64-13.5%0.730.69-5.5%0.770.9726.0%3.0%37%
    GIS2.302.300.0%2.482.480.0%2.602.56-1.5%2.682.690.4%1.0%12%
    HSY2.302.5510.9%2.762.822.2%3.123.243.8%3.553.714.5%1.0%5%
    HRL1.311.5115.3%1.591.749.4%1.821.862.2%1.941.950.5%1.0%18%
    K3.623.30-8.8%3.463.38-2.3%3.523.612.6%3.633.794.4%2.0%8%
    KMB5.174.68-9.5%5.014.80-4.2%5.255.250.0%5.595.681.6%2.0%6%
    LANC3.784.077.7%3.643.845.5%3.833.45-9.9%4.033.99-1.0%2.0%3%
    MKC2.522.655.2%2.812.79-0.7%3.103.04-1.9%3.363.17-5.7%1.5%5%
    PEP4.174.13-1.0%4.614.40-4.6%4.604.10-10.9%4.414.36-1.1%2.0%6%
    PG4.144.11-0.7%3.983.95-0.8%4.193.85-8.1%3.964.052.3%1.5%4%
    SJM4.064.357.1%4.664.813.2%5.024.73-5.8%5.215.373.1%1.2%10%

    Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations

     

     


    CompanyQ3-13ConsensusTotalBondsEPSMyTotal RtnConsensusPr ImplDividend
      YieldCAGRReturnRatingsAccrRRRs- RRRRatingsCAGR/ EPS

    ArDanMidlndADM2.08%8.90%10.98%A3.0011.00-0.022.88.9233.48
    CampbellCPB2.52%6.50%9.02%A1.0010.00-0.983.17.4844.44
    CokeKO2.89%7.80%10.69%A+1.0010.000.692.17.1153.33
    ConAgraCAG2.86%7.50%10.36%BBB-1.0010.50-0.142.17.6446.30
    ColgateCL2.30%8.20%10.50%AA-1.0010.000.502.77.7048.06
    IngredionINGR2.40%9.10%11.50%none2.0011.000.502.48.6028.90
    CloroxCLX3.38%7.50%10.88%BB1.5011.00-0.122.97.6265.89
    FlowersFLO1.33%9.50%10.83%none3.0011.20-0.372.49.8730.93
    General MillsGIS3.07%7.70%10.77%BBB+1.0010.500.272.27.4356.51
    HersheyHSY2.05%9.50%11.55%A1.0010.001.552.47.9552.29
    HormelHRL1.60%9.50%11.10%A1.0010.001.102.88.4034.87
    KelloggK2.93%7.70%10.63%BBB+2.0010.500.132.87.5748.55
    Kimberly-ClarkKMB3.42%7.50%10.92%BBB-2.0010.800.123.07.3857.04
    LancasterLANC2.01%8.90%10.91%A2.0010.500.413.08.4940.10
    McCormickMKC1.92%8.40%10.32%none1.5010.300.022.88.3842.90
    PepsiPEP2.81%7.50%10.31%A-2.0010.40-0.092.37.5952.06
    Procter&GamblePG3.03%7.40%10.43%A-1.5010.200.232.27.1759.51
    JM SmuckerSJM2.13%8.30%10.43%AA1.2010.100.332.57.9743.20

    Average 2.48%8.19%10.67%    2.58

    Disclosure: I am long CL, CLX, HRL, GIS, PEP, PG, SJM.

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  • Butterfly Seeker
    , contributor
    Comments (322) | Send Message
     
    very interesting data! Thanks for collecting & putting it up! :)
    7 Sep 2013, 03:35 AM Reply Like
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