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  • North-East, Mid-Atlantic & Mid-West Regional Banks 9-17-13 0 comments
    Sep 17, 2013 7:09 PM

    note: I have not updated my NPA stats for this coverage universe in the last year. The correlation is done on Q2-12 NPAs.

    North-East, Mid-Atlantic & Mid-West Regional Banks 09-17-13

    Yields below are based on the Q3-13 dividends. Price/book ratios are based on the Q2-13 book values. The change in book compared Q2-12 to Q2-13.



      12-30-12CurrentDividendCurrentDiv/EPSPr/BkPercent Change
    CompanyPricePrice/QuarterYieldRatioRatioPricePr+Div12 EPSTargetBook

    City HldsCHCO33.8942.490.373.4851.211.8121.9225.11-2.3623.498.74
    First ThirdFITB12.7218.550.122.5925.001.1922.0424.4120.7521.946.87
    1st MidWestFMBI10.1315.140.041.0617.781.1720.9321.88-5.2622.65-0.69
    First MeritFMER15.1321.340.163.0050.791.3850.3953.770.8045.645.89
    MB FinMBFI17.1028.050.101.4321.621.1742.0343.049.4738.645.52
    NBTB BancNBTB22.1322.310.203.5950.001.2310.0613.02-1.843.338.28
    N. TrustNTRS39.6655.610.312.2339.871.7310.8712.10-6.8917.074.69
    Old NationalONB11.6513.970.102.8639.601.2117.6920.22-1.9411.302.03
    US BancorpUSB27.0537.520.232.4530.461.9817.4719.63-1.958.248.54

    Average    2.5837.811.3124.0726.131.0618.91

    The KBE [the Bank EFT] is up 29.42% year to date - and with dividends is up 30.36% year to date.
    With the 10 Treasury at 2.88% and the sector average yield [on Q3 Divs] at 2.58% - the spread is -30 basis points.

    Dividend dates are:

    ASBC: 09-15-13BBT: 09-02-13CHCO: 07-29-13CMA: 09-30-13FITB: 07-17-13
    FMBI: 09-15-13FMER: 07-14-13FULT: 07-14-13HBAN: 09-30-13MBFI: 6-27-13
    MTB: 06-27-13NBTB: 9-14-13NTRS: 09-30-13ONB: 09-16-13
    SNV: 06-30-13SUSQ: 08-19-13USB: 07-14-13VLY: 9-30-13

    The Predictive Power of NPAs on Price/Book Ratios: Price/Book ratios range from as low as 0.79 to 1.97 and may look all too random. But the Q2-12 ending NPA's to total assets ratio goes a long way to explaining the variety of valuations - as well as some of the YTD price changes.
    The following companies had NPA/asset ratios in Q2-12 of greater than 2.00%: ASBC , FMBI , FULT , HBAN , SNV . Their mean price gain for the year is 27.38%. Their mean total return for the year is 33.19% - and 3 of the 5 beat the sector median yearly price gain [24.07%] and they sold at an average price/book ratio of 114.61.
    The following companies had NPA/asset ratios in Q2-12 of greater than 1.30% but less than 2.00%: BBT , CMA , FITB , FMER , MBFI , MTB , SUSQ , VLY . Their mean price gain for the year is 27.29%. Their mean total return for the year is 29.47% - and 3 of the 8 beat the sector median yearly price gain [24.07%] and they sold at an average price/book ratio of 123.28.
    The following companies had NPA/asset ratios of less than 1.30%: CHCO , NBTB , NTRS , USB . Their mean price gain for the year is 15.08%. Their mean total return for the year is 17.47% - and 0 of the 4 beat the sector median yearly price gain and they sold at an average price/book ratio of 168.58.

    Banks Price/EPS Ratios 09-17
    The year over year percentage changes in EPS are wrong for stocks having negative EPS numbers


     EPS / Share% EPS GrowthPrice/EPS13 EPS Range


    Average     17.1952.107.9323.5614.8412.95

    Note: The percentage range on the estimates is the high minus low divided by the consensus estimate.

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