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North-East, Mid-Atlantic & Mid-West Regional Banks 9-17-13

note: I have not updated my NPA stats for this coverage universe in the last year. The correlation is done on Q2-12 NPAs.

North-East, Mid-Atlantic & Mid-West Regional Banks 09-17-13

Yields below are based on the Q3-13 dividends. Price/book ratios are based on the Q2-13 book values. The change in book compared Q2-12 to Q2-13.

 

 


    12-30-12 Current Dividend Current Div/EPS Pr/Bk Percent Change
Company Price Price /Quarter Yield Ratio Ratio Price Pr+Div 12 EPS Target Book

Associated ASBC 11.17 15.82 0.08 2.02 30.19 0.93 20.58 22.41 3.92 17.47 2.29
BB&T BBT 25.17 35.06 0.23 2.62 31.40 1.27 20.44 22.81 0.34 12.49 5.04
City Hlds CHCO 33.89 42.49 0.37 3.48 51.21 1.81 21.92 25.11 -2.36 23.49 8.74
Comerica CMA 25.80 41.15 0.17 1.65 23.69 1.10 35.63 36.75 8.71 21.48 3.15
First Third FITB 12.72 18.55 0.12 2.59 25.00 1.19 22.04 24.41 20.75 21.94 6.87
1st MidWest FMBI 10.13 15.14 0.04 1.06 17.78 1.17 20.93 21.88 -5.26 22.65 -0.69
First Merit FMER 15.13 21.34 0.16 3.00 50.79 1.38 50.39 53.77 0.80 45.64 5.89
Fulton FULT 9.81 12.03 0.08 2.66 39.51 1.15 25.18 27.68 -2.41 16.21 3.15
Huntington HBAN 5.49 8.66 0.05 2.31 29.41 1.33 35.52 37.09 4.62 27.13 6.20
MB Fin MBFI 17.10 28.05 0.10 1.43 21.62 1.17 42.03 43.04 9.47 38.64 5.52
MTB MTB 76.34 113.54 0.70 2.47 32.26 1.49 15.30 16.73 5.72 13.64 9.91
NBTB Banc NBTB 22.13 22.31 0.20 3.59 50.00 1.23 10.06 13.02 -1.84 3.33 8.28
N. Trust NTRS 39.66 55.61 0.31 2.23 39.87 1.73 10.87 12.10 -6.89 17.07 4.69
Old National ONB 11.65 13.97 0.10 2.86 39.60 1.21 17.69 20.22 -1.94 11.30 2.03
Synovus SNV 1.41 3.30 0.01 1.21 28.57 1.15 34.69 35.51 0.00 20.22 36.84
Susquehanna SUSQ 8.38 12.88 0.08 2.48 34.41 0.91 22.90 25.19 0.00 22.34 3.44
US Bancorp USB 27.05 37.52 0.23 2.45 30.46 1.98 17.47 19.63 -1.95 8.24 8.54
Valley VLY 12.37 10.19 0.16 6.38 104.84 1.33 9.57 13.06 -12.68 -2.92 0.26

Average         2.58 37.81 1.31 24.07 26.13 1.06 18.91

The KBE [the Bank EFT] is up 29.42% year to date - and with dividends is up 30.36% year to date.
With the 10 Treasury at 2.88% and the sector average yield [on Q3 Divs] at 2.58% - the spread is -30 basis points.

Click to enlarge

Dividend dates are:

ASBC: 09-15-13 BBT: 09-02-13 CHCO: 07-29-13 CMA: 09-30-13 FITB: 07-17-13
FMBI: 09-15-13 FMER: 07-14-13 FULT: 07-14-13 HBAN: 09-30-13 MBFI: 6-27-13
MTB: 06-27-13 NBTB: 9-14-13 NTRS: 09-30-13 ONB: 09-16-13
SNV: 06-30-13 SUSQ: 08-19-13 USB: 07-14-13 VLY: 9-30-13
Click to enlarge

The Predictive Power of NPAs on Price/Book Ratios: Price/Book ratios range from as low as 0.79 to 1.97 and may look all too random. But the Q2-12 ending NPA's to total assets ratio goes a long way to explaining the variety of valuations - as well as some of the YTD price changes.
The following companies had NPA/asset ratios in Q2-12 of greater than 2.00%: ASBC , FMBI , FULT , HBAN , SNV . Their mean price gain for the year is 27.38%. Their mean total return for the year is 33.19% - and 3 of the 5 beat the sector median yearly price gain [24.07%] and they sold at an average price/book ratio of 114.61.
The following companies had NPA/asset ratios in Q2-12 of greater than 1.30% but less than 2.00%: BBT , CMA , FITB , FMER , MBFI , MTB , SUSQ , VLY . Their mean price gain for the year is 27.29%. Their mean total return for the year is 29.47% - and 3 of the 8 beat the sector median yearly price gain [24.07%] and they sold at an average price/book ratio of 123.28.
The following companies had NPA/asset ratios of less than 1.30%: CHCO , NBTB , NTRS , USB . Their mean price gain for the year is 15.08%. Their mean total return for the year is 17.47% - and 0 of the 4 beat the sector median yearly price gain and they sold at an average price/book ratio of 168.58.

Banks Price/EPS Ratios 09-17
The year over year percentage changes in EPS are wrong for stocks having negative EPS numbers
 

 


  EPS / Share % EPS Growth Price/EPS 13 EPS Range
Co. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 2012 2013 2014 High Low Range

ASBC -0.10 0.67 0.99 1.06 1.06 -770.00 47.76 7.07 0.00 15.98 14.92 14.92 1.04 0.92 11.32%
BBT 1.16 1.80 2.69 2.93 3.09 55.17 49.44 8.92 5.46 13.03 11.97 11.35 2.92 2.55 12.63%
CHCO 2.47 2.67 2.73 2.89 3.11 8.10 2.25 5.86 7.61 15.56 14.70 13.66 2.80 2.56 8.30%
CMA 0.88 2.11 2.66 2.87 2.90 139.77 26.07 7.89 1.05 15.47 14.34 14.19 2.83 2.42 14.29%
FITB 0.63 1.22 1.63 1.92 1.73 93.65 33.61 17.79 -9.90 11.38 9.66 10.72 1.63 1.45 9.37%
FMBI -0.27 0.42 0.10 0.90 1.05 -255.56 -76.19 800.00 16.67 151.40 16.82 14.42 0.60 0.37 25.56%
FMER 1.02 1.06 1.20 1.26 1.55 3.92 13.21 5.00 23.02 17.78 16.94 13.77 1.32 1.10 17.46%
FULT 0.59 0.75 0.79 0.81 0.86 27.12 5.33 2.53 6.17 15.23 14.85 13.99 0.81 0.76 6.17%
HBAN 0.27 0.60 0.68 0.68 0.71 122.22 13.33 0.00 4.41 12.74 12.74 12.20 0.69 0.60 13.24%
MBFI 0.19 0.55 1.59 1.85 1.95 189.47 189.09 16.35 5.41 17.64 15.16 14.38 1.64 1.32 17.30%
MTB 5.69 6.82 7.54 8.68 8.98 19.86 10.56 15.12 3.46 15.06 13.08 12.64 7.20 6.55 7.49%
NBTB 1.66 1.71 1.64 1.60 1.64 3.01 -4.09 -2.44 2.50 13.60 13.94 13.60 1.61 1.57 2.50%
NTRS 2.65 2.68 2.89 3.11 3.49 1.13 7.84 7.61 12.22 19.24 17.88 15.93 3.49 2.78 22.83%
ONB 0.44 0.72 0.95 1.01 1.09 63.64 31.94 6.32 7.92 14.71 13.83 12.82 1.05 0.90 14.85%
SNV -1.41 -0.17 0.10 0.14 0.20 -87.94 -158.82 40.00 42.86 33.00 23.57 16.50 0.15 0.05 71.43%
SUSQ 0.13 0.40 0.84 0.93 1.00 207.69 110.00 10.71 7.53 15.33 13.85 12.88 0.85 0.75 10.75%
USB 1.73 2.39 2.87 3.02 3.21 38.15 20.08 5.23 6.29 13.07 12.42 11.69 2.94 2.60 11.26%
VLY 0.81 0.84 0.74 0.62 0.62 3.70 -11.90 -16.22 0.00 13.77 16.44 16.44 0.77 0.69 12.90%

Average           17.19 52.10 7.93 23.56 14.84 12.95

Click to enlarge

Note: The percentage range on the estimates is the high minus low divided by the consensus estimate.