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NorthEast, MidAtlantic & MidWest Regional Banks 91713 0 comments
note: I have not updated my NPA stats for this coverage universe in the last year. The correlation is done on Q212 NPAs.
NorthEast, MidAtlantic & MidWest Regional Banks 091713Yields below are based on the Q313 dividends. Price/book ratios are based on the Q213 book values. The change in book compared Q212 to Q213.
Dividend dates are:
The Predictive Power of NPAs on Price/Book Ratios: Price/Book ratios range from as low as 0.79 to 1.97 and may look all too random. But the Q212 ending NPA's to total assets ratio goes a long way to explaining the variety of valuations  as well as some of the YTD price changes.
Banks Price/EPS Ratios 0917The following companies had NPA/asset ratios in Q212 of greater than 2.00%: ASBC , FMBI , FULT , HBAN , SNV . Their mean price gain for the year is 27.38%. Their mean total return for the year is 33.19%  and 3 of the 5 beat the sector median yearly price gain [24.07%] and they sold at an average price/book ratio of 114.61.
The following companies had NPA/asset ratios in Q212 of greater than 1.30% but less than 2.00%: BBT , CMA , FITB , FMER , MBFI , MTB , SUSQ , VLY . Their mean price gain for the year is 27.29%. Their mean total return for the year is 29.47%  and 3 of the 8 beat the sector median yearly price gain [24.07%] and they sold at an average price/book ratio of 123.28.
The following companies had NPA/asset ratios of less than 1.30%: CHCO , NBTB , NTRS , USB . Their mean price gain for the year is 15.08%. Their mean total return for the year is 17.47%  and 0 of the 4 beat the sector median yearly price gain and they sold at an average price/book ratio of 168.58.
The year over year percentage changes in EPS are wrong for stocks having negative EPS numbers
Note: The percentage range on the estimates is the high minus low divided by the consensus estimate.
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