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I seek to liberate investors from the chains of borrowed opinions by teaching metric awareness. I do not have the usual attributes that qualifies me to write on investing. I am a retail investor. But I do gather, process and analyze significantly more data than average. I share that data in my... More
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  • North-East, Mid-Atlantic & Mid-West Regional Banks 9-17-13 0 comments
    Sep 17, 2013 7:09 PM

    note: I have not updated my NPA stats for this coverage universe in the last year. The correlation is done on Q2-12 NPAs.

    North-East, Mid-Atlantic & Mid-West Regional Banks 09-17-13

    Yields below are based on the Q3-13 dividends. Price/book ratios are based on the Q2-13 book values. The change in book compared Q2-12 to Q2-13.

     

     


      12-30-12CurrentDividendCurrentDiv/EPSPr/BkPercent Change
    CompanyPricePrice/QuarterYieldRatioRatioPricePr+Div12 EPSTargetBook

    AssociatedASBC11.1715.820.082.0230.190.9320.5822.413.9217.472.29
    BB&TBBT25.1735.060.232.6231.401.2720.4422.810.3412.495.04
    City HldsCHCO33.8942.490.373.4851.211.8121.9225.11-2.3623.498.74
    ComericaCMA25.8041.150.171.6523.691.1035.6336.758.7121.483.15
    First ThirdFITB12.7218.550.122.5925.001.1922.0424.4120.7521.946.87
    1st MidWestFMBI10.1315.140.041.0617.781.1720.9321.88-5.2622.65-0.69
    First MeritFMER15.1321.340.163.0050.791.3850.3953.770.8045.645.89
    FultonFULT9.8112.030.082.6639.511.1525.1827.68-2.4116.213.15
    HuntingtonHBAN5.498.660.052.3129.411.3335.5237.094.6227.136.20
    MB FinMBFI17.1028.050.101.4321.621.1742.0343.049.4738.645.52
    MTBMTB76.34113.540.702.4732.261.4915.3016.735.7213.649.91
    NBTB BancNBTB22.1322.310.203.5950.001.2310.0613.02-1.843.338.28
    N. TrustNTRS39.6655.610.312.2339.871.7310.8712.10-6.8917.074.69
    Old NationalONB11.6513.970.102.8639.601.2117.6920.22-1.9411.302.03
    SynovusSNV1.413.300.011.2128.571.1534.6935.510.0020.2236.84
    SusquehannaSUSQ8.3812.880.082.4834.410.9122.9025.190.0022.343.44
    US BancorpUSB27.0537.520.232.4530.461.9817.4719.63-1.958.248.54
    ValleyVLY12.3710.190.166.38104.841.339.5713.06-12.68-2.920.26

    Average    2.5837.811.3124.0726.131.0618.91

    The KBE [the Bank EFT] is up 29.42% year to date - and with dividends is up 30.36% year to date.
    With the 10 Treasury at 2.88% and the sector average yield [on Q3 Divs] at 2.58% - the spread is -30 basis points.

    Dividend dates are:

    ASBC: 09-15-13BBT: 09-02-13CHCO: 07-29-13CMA: 09-30-13FITB: 07-17-13
    FMBI: 09-15-13FMER: 07-14-13FULT: 07-14-13HBAN: 09-30-13MBFI: 6-27-13
    MTB: 06-27-13NBTB: 9-14-13NTRS: 09-30-13ONB: 09-16-13
    SNV: 06-30-13SUSQ: 08-19-13USB: 07-14-13VLY: 9-30-13

    The Predictive Power of NPAs on Price/Book Ratios: Price/Book ratios range from as low as 0.79 to 1.97 and may look all too random. But the Q2-12 ending NPA's to total assets ratio goes a long way to explaining the variety of valuations - as well as some of the YTD price changes.
    The following companies had NPA/asset ratios in Q2-12 of greater than 2.00%: ASBC , FMBI , FULT , HBAN , SNV . Their mean price gain for the year is 27.38%. Their mean total return for the year is 33.19% - and 3 of the 5 beat the sector median yearly price gain [24.07%] and they sold at an average price/book ratio of 114.61.
    The following companies had NPA/asset ratios in Q2-12 of greater than 1.30% but less than 2.00%: BBT , CMA , FITB , FMER , MBFI , MTB , SUSQ , VLY . Their mean price gain for the year is 27.29%. Their mean total return for the year is 29.47% - and 3 of the 8 beat the sector median yearly price gain [24.07%] and they sold at an average price/book ratio of 123.28.
    The following companies had NPA/asset ratios of less than 1.30%: CHCO , NBTB , NTRS , USB . Their mean price gain for the year is 15.08%. Their mean total return for the year is 17.47% - and 0 of the 4 beat the sector median yearly price gain and they sold at an average price/book ratio of 168.58.

    Banks Price/EPS Ratios 09-17
    The year over year percentage changes in EPS are wrong for stocks having negative EPS numbers
     

     


     EPS / Share% EPS GrowthPrice/EPS13 EPS Range
    Co.2010201120122013201410-1111-1212-1313-14201220132014HighLowRange

    ASBC-0.100.670.991.061.06-770.0047.767.070.0015.9814.9214.921.040.9211.32%
    BBT1.161.802.692.933.0955.1749.448.925.4613.0311.9711.352.922.5512.63%
    CHCO2.472.672.732.893.118.102.255.867.6115.5614.7013.662.802.568.30%
    CMA0.882.112.662.872.90139.7726.077.891.0515.4714.3414.192.832.4214.29%
    FITB0.631.221.631.921.7393.6533.6117.79-9.9011.389.6610.721.631.459.37%
    FMBI-0.270.420.100.901.05-255.56-76.19800.0016.67151.4016.8214.420.600.3725.56%
    FMER1.021.061.201.261.553.9213.215.0023.0217.7816.9413.771.321.1017.46%
    FULT0.590.750.790.810.8627.125.332.536.1715.2314.8513.990.810.766.17%
    HBAN0.270.600.680.680.71122.2213.330.004.4112.7412.7412.200.690.6013.24%
    MBFI0.190.551.591.851.95189.47189.0916.355.4117.6415.1614.381.641.3217.30%
    MTB5.696.827.548.688.9819.8610.5615.123.4615.0613.0812.647.206.557.49%
    NBTB1.661.711.641.601.643.01-4.09-2.442.5013.6013.9413.601.611.572.50%
    NTRS2.652.682.893.113.491.137.847.6112.2219.2417.8815.933.492.7822.83%
    ONB0.440.720.951.011.0963.6431.946.327.9214.7113.8312.821.050.9014.85%
    SNV-1.41-0.170.100.140.20-87.94-158.8240.0042.8633.0023.5716.500.150.0571.43%
    SUSQ0.130.400.840.931.00207.69110.0010.717.5315.3313.8512.880.850.7510.75%
    USB1.732.392.873.023.2138.1520.085.236.2913.0712.4211.692.942.6011.26%
    VLY0.810.840.740.620.623.70-11.90-16.220.0013.7716.4416.440.770.6912.90%

    Average     17.1952.107.9323.5614.8412.95

    Note: The percentage range on the estimates is the high minus low divided by the consensus estimate.

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