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I seek to liberate investors from the chains of borrowed opinions by teaching metric awareness that leads to the formation of your own opinions. I lack the usual attributes that qualifies me to write on investing. I am a retail investor. But I do gather, process and analyze significantly more... More
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  • BDC Update Of 11-01-13 1 comment
    Nov 2, 2013 8:52 PM

    1 - I update my NAVs all at once - so I will not have Q3-13 NAVs for another two to three weeks

    2 - I stress dividend coverage and dividend growth in my writings on BDCs. At the end of this article, I will post an - at first - slightly hard to believe stat on that metric. Be sure to catch that.

    BDCs 11-01-13

    Yield in the spreadsheet below is based on the Q3-13 dividend. Spreadsheet header abbreviations: Div = dividend; EPS = earnings per share; LTM = last twelve months; YTD = year to date. The dividend to EPS ratio is a measure of dividend safety. Due to calendar and fiscal years failing to overlap, I also include a dividend to the sum of the last four quarters of NII - in the Div/NIIltm column. The dividend to NAV ratio is a measure of safety and efficiency. The last four columns measure the percentage change in the 2013 EPS projection and the change in the price target since the beginning of the year; the change in the Q3-13 dividend from the Q3-12 dividend (special dividends are not included in this calculation); and the change in the Q2-13 NAV from the Q2-12 NAV.

     

     


      Share Price Div/Div/Div/Div/Q2-13PriceYTD Percent ChangeLTMLTM
    Company1-0111-01YieldEPS13EPS14NIIltmNAVNAVNAVPricePr+DivEPSTargetDivNAV

    American CapACAS12.0214.030.000.00.00.00.019.280.7316.7216.72-13.3321.79na21.20
    Apollo InvestAINV8.368.519.4092.093.092.19.88.161.041.7911.36-1.146.160.00-1.69
    Ares CapitalARCC17.5017.318.7897.493.3100.49.416.211.07-1.095.43-6.023.010.004.51
    BlackRockBKCC10.069.3911.08120.9111.8115.611.19.371.00-6.663.68-14.852.530.00-2.50
    Fidus InvestFDUS16.4520.377.46104.884.4107.99.516.061.2723.8331.45-15.2012.160.006.92
    Fifth StFSC10.4210.1911.28108.5104.5110.311.69.901.03-2.216.89-4.502.520.000.51
    Full CircleFULL7.437.7911.86120.0117.0120.011.58.010.974.8515.10-4.9420.000.00-6.75
    Gladstone InvGAIN6.967.088.4796.893.880.26.98.700.811.728.9112.73-11.110.00-4.40
    Golub CapGBDC15.9817.577.2997.792.199.38.515.121.169.9515.962.345.880.003.70
    Gladstone CapGLAD8.168.659.7197.798.8103.39.88.601.016.0014.580.00-4.110.00-3.48
    HorizonHRZN14.9213.5010.22100.094.5102.29.314.890.91-9.52-0.27-9.21-6.49-23.33-11.00
    HerculesHTGC11.1315.427.2697.486.2106.411.110.091.5338.5446.095.5026.3216.675.77
    Kayne AndKED24.4429.515.9673.362.089.86.726.441.1220.7426.1525.0017.747.3216.58
    KohlbergKCAP9.198.3313.45120.4107.7118.113.68.241.01-9.36-0.22-8.822.3216.677.57
    Main St.MAIN30.5130.066.1990.383.490.19.918.721.61-1.473.610.9824.623.3310.83
    Medley CapMCC14.5613.7210.7998.793.7100.011.712.651.08-5.771.853.455.182.780.40
    MCG CapitalMCGC4.604.7410.55106.489.3137.49.75.180.923.0411.202.1717.06-10.71-1.52
    New MountainNMFC14.9014.179.6089.597.8104.89.514.320.99-4.901.9511.760.590.003.54
    NGP CapitalNGPC7.227.438.6197.097.096.77.09.130.812.919.56-15.38-16.6723.08-1.72
    ProspectPSEC10.8711.3411.6884.3102.782.812.410.721.064.3214.375.3712.009.07-1.02
    Pennant FloatPFLT12.7013.147.9993.896.391.77.513.980.943.4610.291.826.299.380.29
    Pennant CapPNNT10.9911.1710.03108.7100.9106.410.710.431.071.6411.83-8.850.510.002.66
    SaratogaSAR15.4019.200.000.00.00.00.023.780.8124.6824.68-2.11-32.09na-8.52
    Solar CapSLRC23.9122.047.2685.684.771.67.122.400.98-7.82-1.13-27.24-4.84-33.33-0.49
    Solar SeniorSUNS18.6618.027.82117.5100.7113.17.818.031.00-3.432.80-15.491.582.17-2.75
    MedallionTAXI11.7415.055.8571.076.5154.08.610.291.4628.1933.8216.9823.0410.004.26
    Triangle CapTCAP25.4929.257.3896.490.093.613.815.621.8714.7521.11-0.8815.923.852.70
    THL CreditTCRD14.7916.188.4195.192.589.810.013.581.199.4016.290.005.386.253.11
    TICC CapTICC10.129.9911.61111.5102.7131.711.99.751.02-1.287.31-14.75-2.860.002.96

    Sector Average  9.1199.0  9.9 1.095.6212.81-2.575.32

    With the 10 Treasury at 2.62% and sector average yield (on Q3 dividends) at 9.11% - the spread is 649 bps.
    The cap weighted ETF BDCS is up 3.30% year to date - with dividends its total return is 10.78%.
    Sector yield, Dividend/NAV and Dividend/EPS ratio filter out the zero payout ACAS and SAR.
    Weeding out ACAS and SAR, the average share price gain is 4.51%.

    BDC Earnings Growth & P/E Ratios 11-01

    Fiscal and calendar years are not in sync. BDCs than began fiscal 2013 on or before calendar Q3-12 include AINV, FULL, GAIN, GBDC, GLAD, MCC, PSEC, PFLT, and PNNT. The range metric is the high estimate minus the low estimate, with that result dividend by the consensus estimate - and serves as one of several measurements for assessing risk. That average is currently inflated by almost 300 bps due to atypical spreads in the projections for ACAS and GAIN. With the exception of KED, all EPS projections are from Yahoo Finance.

     

     


     Earnings / ShareEarn. GrowthP/E Ratios13 EPS Range
    Co.200820092010201120122013201411-1212-1313-14201220132014HighLowRange

    ACAS2426162126116911.00-7.94%-21.55%9.89%12.0915.4214.031108428.57%
    AINV1801481269983870.86-16.16%4.82%-1.15%10.259.789.90927914.94%
    ARCC1421281321561651561.635.77%-5.45%4.49%10.4911.1010.621621545.13%
    BKCC176139101100100860.930.00%-14.00%8.14%9.3910.9210.10937916.28%
    FDUS0001631541451.80-5.52%-5.84%24.14%13.2314.0511.3215613613.79%
    FSC130127951011071061.105.94%-0.93%3.77%9.529.619.261119713.21%
    FULL0008478770.79-7.14%-1.28%2.60%9.9910.129.86847018.18%
    GAIN7962487362620.64-15.07%0.00%3.23%11.4211.4211.0666609.68%
    GBDC0001161151311.39-0.86%13.91%6.11%15.2813.4112.641331293.05%
    GLAD135100848891860.853.41%-5.49%-1.16%9.5110.0610.1886842.33%
    HRZN0001501411381.46-6.00%-2.13%5.80%9.579.789.2514913212.32%
    HTGC1231258091971151.306.59%18.56%13.04%15.9013.4111.861171124.35%
    KED1351271251361892402.8438.97%26.98%18.33%15.6112.3010.392102100.00%
    KCAP150104537089931.0427.14%4.49%11.83%9.368.968.0193921.08%
    MAIN115901001692012062.2318.93%2.49%8.25%14.9614.5913.482082022.91%
    MCC000561311501.58133.93%14.50%5.33%10.479.158.681531464.67%
    MCGC9360605325470.56-52.83%88.00%19.15%18.9610.098.4648464.26%
    NMFC000561351521.39141.07%12.59%-8.55%10.509.3210.191541502.63%
    NGPC7957547355660.66-24.66%20.00%0.00%13.5111.2611.2669639.09%
    PSEC1911871091091631571.2949.54%-3.68%-17.83%6.967.228.7913812110.83%
    PFLT00051011121.091920.00%10.89%-2.68%13.0111.7312.061151077.14%
    PNNT881091091251081031.11-13.60%-4.63%7.77%10.3410.8410.061051013.88%
    SAR130016404572151861861.86-13.49%0.00%0.00%10.3210.3210.321861860.00%
    SLRC02002082252201871.89-2.22%-15.00%1.07%10.0211.7911.661921825.35%
    SUNS000631311201.40107.94%-8.40%16.67%13.7615.0212.871251185.83%
    TAXI8656641011211241.1519.80%2.48%-7.26%12.4412.1413.0913511218.55%
    TCAP1541611582062162242.404.85%3.70%7.14%13.5413.0612.192282184.46%
    TCRD0001041381431.4732.69%3.62%2.80%11.7211.3111.011481396.29%
    TICC914989941121041.1319.15%-7.14%8.65%8.929.618.841071015.77%

    BDC Average     81.734.535.1611.7611.3010.74  8.09

    The "hard to believe" stat

    The Importance of Dividend Changes The following companies had dividends that grew more than 1% between Q4-12 and Q4-13: HTGC , KED , KCAP , MAIN , MCC , PFLT , TAXI , TCAP , TCRD . Their mean price gain for the year is 10.94%. Their mean total return for the year is 17.66% - and 5 of the 9 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
    The following companies had dividends that grew less than 1%: AINV , ARCC , BKCC , FDUS , FSC , FULL , GAIN , GBDC , GLAD , HRZN , MCGC , NMFC , NGPC , PSEC , PNNT , SLRC , SUNS , TICC . Their mean price gain for the year is 1.29%. Their mean total return for the year is 9.50% - and 4 of the 18 beat the sector median yearly price gain.

    Why that stat is believable

    Five of the seven BDCs that have had double digit share price appreciation in 2014 - FDUS, HTCG, KED, TAXI and TCAP - all had dividend increases.

    Year To Date BDC Newbie Stats 11-01-13
    The first Div/EPS uses the 2013 projection and the second ratio uses the 2014 projection

     

     


     Share Price 2013Div/2014Div/Q2-13PriceYTD Percent Change
    Company12-3111-01YieldEPSEPSEPSEPSNAVNAVPricePr+Div

    GarrisonGARS15.0014.539.641.34104.481.39100.7215.060.96-3.131.53
    Monroe CapitalMRCC14.8312.8010.631.11122.521.34101.4914.780.87-13.69-6.81
    OFS CapitalOFS13.6911.9211.410.71191.551.09124.7714.760.81-12.93-4.73
    Stellus CapitalSCM16.3814.779.211.3799.271.4593.7914.601.01-9.83-3.60
    TCP CapitalTCPC14.7416.898.531.6189.441.6487.8014.941.1314.5921.91
    White HorseWHF14.8115.549.141.27111.811.4995.3015.041.034.9314.52

    Sector Average  9.76 119.85 100.65 0.97-3.343.80

    EPS Estimates and P/E Ratios 11-01-13

     

     


     ; Earnings / ShareEarn. GrowthP/E Ratios13 EPS Range
    Co.201120122013201411-1212-1313-14201220132014HighLowSpread

    GARS00134139nana3.73%na10.8410.451421318.21%
    MRCC020111134na455.00%20.72%64.0011.539.5514212515.32%
    OFS06571109na9.23%53.52%18.3416.7910.94897716.90%
    SCM030137145na356.67%5.84%49.2310.7810.191421355.11%
    TCPC0181161164na-11.05%1.86%9.3310.4910.3018516015.53%
    WHF032127149na296.88%17.32%48.5612.2410.4316112032.28%

    Average   0.00184.4517.1731.5812.1110.31
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  • skyraider
    , contributor
    Comments (457) | Send Message
     
    I am sure I am missing something but where is TCPC?
    sky
    2 Nov 2013, 10:28 PM Reply Like
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