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I am a private investor who has invested in individual stocks for over a decade. I have a BBA from the University of Texas at Austin. I am retired and living off of dividends and distributions from a portfolio of BDCs, consumer staple stocks, MLPs, regional banks and REITs.
  • BDC Update Of 11-01-13 1 comment
    Nov 2, 2013 8:52 PM

    1 - I update my NAVs all at once - so I will not have Q3-13 NAVs for another two to three weeks

    2 - I stress dividend coverage and dividend growth in my writings on BDCs. At the end of this article, I will post an - at first - slightly hard to believe stat on that metric. Be sure to catch that.

    BDCs 11-01-13

    Yield in the spreadsheet below is based on the Q3-13 dividend. Spreadsheet header abbreviations: Div = dividend; EPS = earnings per share; LTM = last twelve months; YTD = year to date. The dividend to EPS ratio is a measure of dividend safety. Due to calendar and fiscal years failing to overlap, I also include a dividend to the sum of the last four quarters of NII - in the Div/NIIltm column. The dividend to NAV ratio is a measure of safety and efficiency. The last four columns measure the percentage change in the 2013 EPS projection and the change in the price target since the beginning of the year; the change in the Q3-13 dividend from the Q3-12 dividend (special dividends are not included in this calculation); and the change in the Q2-13 NAV from the Q2-12 NAV.

     

     


        Share Price   Div/ Div/ Div/ Div/ Q2-13 Price YTD Percent Change LTM LTM
    Company 1-01 11-01 Yield EPS13 EPS14 NIIltm NAV NAV NAV Price Pr+Div EPS Target Div NAV

    American Cap ACAS 12.02 14.03 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.28 0.73 16.72 16.72 -13.33 21.79 na 21.20
    Apollo Invest AINV 8.36 8.51 9.40 92.0 93.0 92.1 9.8 8.16 1.04 1.79 11.36 -1.14 6.16 0.00 -1.69
    Ares Capital ARCC 17.50 17.31 8.78 97.4 93.3 100.4 9.4 16.21 1.07 -1.09 5.43 -6.02 3.01 0.00 4.51
    BlackRock BKCC 10.06 9.39 11.08 120.9 111.8 115.6 11.1 9.37 1.00 -6.66 3.68 -14.85 2.53 0.00 -2.50
    Fidus Invest FDUS 16.45 20.37 7.46 104.8 84.4 107.9 9.5 16.06 1.27 23.83 31.45 -15.20 12.16 0.00 6.92
    Fifth St FSC 10.42 10.19 11.28 108.5 104.5 110.3 11.6 9.90 1.03 -2.21 6.89 -4.50 2.52 0.00 0.51
    Full Circle FULL 7.43 7.79 11.86 120.0 117.0 120.0 11.5 8.01 0.97 4.85 15.10 -4.94 20.00 0.00 -6.75
    Gladstone Inv GAIN 6.96 7.08 8.47 96.8 93.8 80.2 6.9 8.70 0.81 1.72 8.91 12.73 -11.11 0.00 -4.40
    Golub Cap GBDC 15.98 17.57 7.29 97.7 92.1 99.3 8.5 15.12 1.16 9.95 15.96 2.34 5.88 0.00 3.70
    Gladstone Cap GLAD 8.16 8.65 9.71 97.7 98.8 103.3 9.8 8.60 1.01 6.00 14.58 0.00 -4.11 0.00 -3.48
    Horizon HRZN 14.92 13.50 10.22 100.0 94.5 102.2 9.3 14.89 0.91 -9.52 -0.27 -9.21 -6.49 -23.33 -11.00
    Hercules HTGC 11.13 15.42 7.26 97.4 86.2 106.4 11.1 10.09 1.53 38.54 46.09 5.50 26.32 16.67 5.77
    Kayne And KED 24.44 29.51 5.96 73.3 62.0 89.8 6.7 26.44 1.12 20.74 26.15 25.00 17.74 7.32 16.58
    Kohlberg KCAP 9.19 8.33 13.45 120.4 107.7 118.1 13.6 8.24 1.01 -9.36 -0.22 -8.82 2.32 16.67 7.57
    Main St. MAIN 30.51 30.06 6.19 90.3 83.4 90.1 9.9 18.72 1.61 -1.47 3.61 0.98 24.62 3.33 10.83
    Medley Cap MCC 14.56 13.72 10.79 98.7 93.7 100.0 11.7 12.65 1.08 -5.77 1.85 3.45 5.18 2.78 0.40
    MCG Capital MCGC 4.60 4.74 10.55 106.4 89.3 137.4 9.7 5.18 0.92 3.04 11.20 2.17 17.06 -10.71 -1.52
    New Mountain NMFC 14.90 14.17 9.60 89.5 97.8 104.8 9.5 14.32 0.99 -4.90 1.95 11.76 0.59 0.00 3.54
    NGP Capital NGPC 7.22 7.43 8.61 97.0 97.0 96.7 7.0 9.13 0.81 2.91 9.56 -15.38 -16.67 23.08 -1.72
    Prospect PSEC 10.87 11.34 11.68 84.3 102.7 82.8 12.4 10.72 1.06 4.32 14.37 5.37 12.00 9.07 -1.02
    Pennant Float PFLT 12.70 13.14 7.99 93.8 96.3 91.7 7.5 13.98 0.94 3.46 10.29 1.82 6.29 9.38 0.29
    Pennant Cap PNNT 10.99 11.17 10.03 108.7 100.9 106.4 10.7 10.43 1.07 1.64 11.83 -8.85 0.51 0.00 2.66
    Saratoga SAR 15.40 19.20 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.78 0.81 24.68 24.68 -2.11 -32.09 na -8.52
    Solar Cap SLRC 23.91 22.04 7.26 85.6 84.7 71.6 7.1 22.40 0.98 -7.82 -1.13 -27.24 -4.84 -33.33 -0.49
    Solar Senior SUNS 18.66 18.02 7.82 117.5 100.7 113.1 7.8 18.03 1.00 -3.43 2.80 -15.49 1.58 2.17 -2.75
    Medallion TAXI 11.74 15.05 5.85 71.0 76.5 154.0 8.6 10.29 1.46 28.19 33.82 16.98 23.04 10.00 4.26
    Triangle Cap TCAP 25.49 29.25 7.38 96.4 90.0 93.6 13.8 15.62 1.87 14.75 21.11 -0.88 15.92 3.85 2.70
    THL Credit TCRD 14.79 16.18 8.41 95.1 92.5 89.8 10.0 13.58 1.19 9.40 16.29 0.00 5.38 6.25 3.11
    TICC Cap TICC 10.12 9.99 11.61 111.5 102.7 131.7 11.9 9.75 1.02 -1.28 7.31 -14.75 -2.86 0.00 2.96

    Sector Average     9.11 99.0     9.9   1.09 5.62 12.81 -2.57 5.32

    With the 10 Treasury at 2.62% and sector average yield (on Q3 dividends) at 9.11% - the spread is 649 bps.
    The cap weighted ETF BDCS is up 3.30% year to date - with dividends its total return is 10.78%.
    Sector yield, Dividend/NAV and Dividend/EPS ratio filter out the zero payout ACAS and SAR.
    Weeding out ACAS and SAR, the average share price gain is 4.51%.

    BDC Earnings Growth & P/E Ratios 11-01

    Fiscal and calendar years are not in sync. BDCs than began fiscal 2013 on or before calendar Q3-12 include AINV, FULL, GAIN, GBDC, GLAD, MCC, PSEC, PFLT, and PNNT. The range metric is the high estimate minus the low estimate, with that result dividend by the consensus estimate - and serves as one of several measurements for assessing risk. That average is currently inflated by almost 300 bps due to atypical spreads in the projections for ACAS and GAIN. With the exception of KED, all EPS projections are from Yahoo Finance.

     

     


      Earnings / Share Earn. Growth P/E Ratios 13 EPS Range
    Co. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 11-12 12-13 13-14 2012 2013 2014 High Low Range

    ACAS 242 61 62 126 116 91 1.00 -7.94% -21.55% 9.89% 12.09 15.42 14.03 110 84 28.57%
    AINV 180 148 126 99 83 87 0.86 -16.16% 4.82% -1.15% 10.25 9.78 9.90 92 79 14.94%
    ARCC 142 128 132 156 165 156 1.63 5.77% -5.45% 4.49% 10.49 11.10 10.62 162 154 5.13%
    BKCC 176 139 101 100 100 86 0.93 0.00% -14.00% 8.14% 9.39 10.92 10.10 93 79 16.28%
    FDUS 0 0 0 163 154 145 1.80 -5.52% -5.84% 24.14% 13.23 14.05 11.32 156 136 13.79%
    FSC 130 127 95 101 107 106 1.10 5.94% -0.93% 3.77% 9.52 9.61 9.26 111 97 13.21%
    FULL 0 0 0 84 78 77 0.79 -7.14% -1.28% 2.60% 9.99 10.12 9.86 84 70 18.18%
    GAIN 79 62 48 73 62 62 0.64 -15.07% 0.00% 3.23% 11.42 11.42 11.06 66 60 9.68%
    GBDC 0 0 0 116 115 131 1.39 -0.86% 13.91% 6.11% 15.28 13.41 12.64 133 129 3.05%
    GLAD 135 100 84 88 91 86 0.85 3.41% -5.49% -1.16% 9.51 10.06 10.18 86 84 2.33%
    HRZN 0 0 0 150 141 138 1.46 -6.00% -2.13% 5.80% 9.57 9.78 9.25 149 132 12.32%
    HTGC 123 125 80 91 97 115 1.30 6.59% 18.56% 13.04% 15.90 13.41 11.86 117 112 4.35%
    KED 135 127 125 136 189 240 2.84 38.97% 26.98% 18.33% 15.61 12.30 10.39 210 210 0.00%
    KCAP 150 104 53 70 89 93 1.04 27.14% 4.49% 11.83% 9.36 8.96 8.01 93 92 1.08%
    MAIN 115 90 100 169 201 206 2.23 18.93% 2.49% 8.25% 14.96 14.59 13.48 208 202 2.91%
    MCC 0 0 0 56 131 150 1.58 133.93% 14.50% 5.33% 10.47 9.15 8.68 153 146 4.67%
    MCGC 93 60 60 53 25 47 0.56 -52.83% 88.00% 19.15% 18.96 10.09 8.46 48 46 4.26%
    NMFC 0 0 0 56 135 152 1.39 141.07% 12.59% -8.55% 10.50 9.32 10.19 154 150 2.63%
    NGPC 79 57 54 73 55 66 0.66 -24.66% 20.00% 0.00% 13.51 11.26 11.26 69 63 9.09%
    PSEC 191 187 109 109 163 157 1.29 49.54% -3.68% -17.83% 6.96 7.22 8.79 138 121 10.83%
    PFLT 0 0 0 5 101 112 1.09 1920.00% 10.89% -2.68% 13.01 11.73 12.06 115 107 7.14%
    PNNT 88 109 109 125 108 103 1.11 -13.60% -4.63% 7.77% 10.34 10.84 10.06 105 101 3.88%
    SAR 1300 1640 457 215 186 186 1.86 -13.49% 0.00% 0.00% 10.32 10.32 10.32 186 186 0.00%
    SLRC 0 200 208 225 220 187 1.89 -2.22% -15.00% 1.07% 10.02 11.79 11.66 192 182 5.35%
    SUNS 0 0 0 63 131 120 1.40 107.94% -8.40% 16.67% 13.76 15.02 12.87 125 118 5.83%
    TAXI 86 56 64 101 121 124 1.15 19.80% 2.48% -7.26% 12.44 12.14 13.09 135 112 18.55%
    TCAP 154 161 158 206 216 224 2.40 4.85% 3.70% 7.14% 13.54 13.06 12.19 228 218 4.46%
    TCRD 0 0 0 104 138 143 1.47 32.69% 3.62% 2.80% 11.72 11.31 11.01 148 139 6.29%
    TICC 91 49 89 94 112 104 1.13 19.15% -7.14% 8.65% 8.92 9.61 8.84 107 101 5.77%

    BDC Average           81.73 4.53 5.16 11.76 11.30 10.74     8.09

    The "hard to believe" stat

    The Importance of Dividend Changes The following companies had dividends that grew more than 1% between Q4-12 and Q4-13: HTGC , KED , KCAP , MAIN , MCC , PFLT , TAXI , TCAP , TCRD . Their mean price gain for the year is 10.94%. Their mean total return for the year is 17.66% - and 5 of the 9 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
    The following companies had dividends that grew less than 1%: AINV , ARCC , BKCC , FDUS , FSC , FULL , GAIN , GBDC , GLAD , HRZN , MCGC , NMFC , NGPC , PSEC , PNNT , SLRC , SUNS , TICC . Their mean price gain for the year is 1.29%. Their mean total return for the year is 9.50% - and 4 of the 18 beat the sector median yearly price gain.

    Why that stat is believable

    Five of the seven BDCs that have had double digit share price appreciation in 2014 - FDUS, HTCG, KED, TAXI and TCAP - all had dividend increases.

    Year To Date BDC Newbie Stats 11-01-13
    The first Div/EPS uses the 2013 projection and the second ratio uses the 2014 projection

     

     


      Share Price   2013 Div/ 2014 Div/ Q2-13 Price YTD Percent Change
    Company 12-31 11-01 Yield EPS EPS EPS EPS NAV NAV Price Pr+Div

    Garrison GARS 15.00 14.53 9.64 1.34 104.48 1.39 100.72 15.06 0.96 -3.13 1.53
    Monroe Capital MRCC 14.83 12.80 10.63 1.11 122.52 1.34 101.49 14.78 0.87 -13.69 -6.81
    OFS Capital OFS 13.69 11.92 11.41 0.71 191.55 1.09 124.77 14.76 0.81 -12.93 -4.73
    Stellus Capital SCM 16.38 14.77 9.21 1.37 99.27 1.45 93.79 14.60 1.01 -9.83 -3.60
    TCP Capital TCPC 14.74 16.89 8.53 1.61 89.44 1.64 87.80 14.94 1.13 14.59 21.91
    White Horse WHF 14.81 15.54 9.14 1.27 111.81 1.49 95.30 15.04 1.03 4.93 14.52

    Sector Average     9.76   119.85   100.65   0.97 -3.34 3.80

    EPS Estimates and P/E Ratios 11-01-13

     

     


      ; Earnings / Share Earn. Growth P/E Ratios 13 EPS Range
    Co. 2011 2012 2013 2014 11-12 12-13 13-14 2012 2013 2014 High Low Spread

    GARS 0 0 134 139 na na 3.73% na 10.84 10.45 142 131 8.21%
    MRCC 0 20 111 134 na 455.00% 20.72% 64.00 11.53 9.55 142 125 15.32%
    OFS 0 65 71 109 na 9.23% 53.52% 18.34 16.79 10.94 89 77 16.90%
    SCM 0 30 137 145 na 356.67% 5.84% 49.23 10.78 10.19 142 135 5.11%
    TCPC 0 181 161 164 na -11.05% 1.86% 9.33 10.49 10.30 185 160 15.53%
    WHF 0 32 127 149 na 296.88% 17.32% 48.56 12.24 10.43 161 120 32.28%

    Average       0.00 184.45 17.17 31.58 12.11 10.31
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  • skyraider
    , contributor
    Comments (496) | Send Message
     
    I am sure I am missing something but where is TCPC?
    sky
    2 Nov 2013, 10:28 PM Reply Like
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