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  • Health Care REIT Update For 12-13-13 1 comment
    Dec 13, 2013 8:19 PM

    When does the effect of tax loss selling and window dressing end? I suspect it ends BEFORE year end - but on what date, I do not know. With the sector average yield on my stats (which are not capitalization weighted) over 6.00% - this appears to be a good entry point. On the other hand, the talking heads on CNBC have me persuaded that the yield on the 10 year treasury is headed for 3.00% before there is a pause. And REITs will have a knee-jerk reaction to those rising rates.

    Health Care Update for Q4-13

    Yields are calculated on Q4-13 dividends. HCN has preannounced a February increase in the dividend to $0.795/share - a 4% increase. MPW has announced an increase to $0.21/share for the dividend to be paid in January 2014. The Dividend/FFO ratio uses the 2014 FFO projection. AVIV started trading on 3-21-13 and DOC on 7-19-13. The change in the FFO projection for those two are for the last 90 days. The change is price is from their second day of trading. The sector average LTM (last twelve month) dividend change omits AVIV and DOC from that calculation. VTR has atypically had two dividend increases in the LTM.

     

     


     Share Price2013 FFO Estimate Div/Percent ChangeLTM
    Company_name_and_ticker1-0112-131-0112-13YieldFFOPricePr+Div13 FFOTargetDiv

    Aviv REIT(NYSE:AVIV)22.5523.841.301.256.0477.845.728.91-3.850.000.00
    Physicians Realty(NYSE:DOC)11.5011.560.540.277.7991.840.522.48-50.000.000.00
    Health Care REIT(NYSE:HCN)61.2953.913.913.795.6876.12-12.04-7.05-3.076.233.38
    Health Care Prop(NYSE:HCP)45.1635.772.972.995.8768.63-20.79-16.140.67-3.855.00
    Health Care Realty(NYSE:HR)24.0121.091.391.305.6984.51-12.16-7.16-6.47-2.280.00
    Health Care Trust(NYSE:HTA)9.909.900.660.645.8183.330.005.81-3.032.930.00
    LTC Property(NYSE:LTC)35.1936.162.432.355.6476.982.767.60-3.2919.249.68
    Med Prop Trust(NYSE:MPW)11.9612.021.070.996.9975.000.507.19-7.481.695.00
    Nat'l Health Inv(NYSE:NHI)56.5357.043.393.535.1571.190.906.104.1312.869.70
    Omega Health(NYSE:OHI)23.8530.192.242.516.3670.8526.5834.4712.0535.429.09
    Sabra Health Care(NASDAQ:SBRA)21.7225.711.721.875.2963.2618.3724.638.7230.513.03
    Senior Housing(NYSE:SNH)23.6422.021.841.707.0889.14-6.85-0.25-7.612.520.00
    Universal Health(NYSE:UHT)50.6141.603.012.736.0189.29-17.80-14.10-9.300.000.81
    Ventas(NYSE:VTR)64.7255.983.994.135.1866.51-13.50-10.403.512.7316.94

    Average     6.0477.46-1.993.09-4.647.715.22

    Dividend dates are:

    AVIV: 1-17-14DOC: 11-01-13HCN: 11-19-13HCP: 11-18-13HR : 11-29-13HTA: 01-02-14LTC: monthly
    MPW: 01-07-14NHI: 11-07-13OHI: 11-15-13SBRA: 11-28-13SNH: 11-20-13UHT: 09-30-13VTR: 12-31-13

    Historical yields for the sector:

    Mar 2007: 5.33%June: 6.24%Sept: 5.90%Dec: 5.77%
    Mar 2008: 5.84%June: 6.33%Sept: 5.25%Dec: 6.89%
    Mar 2009: 9.11%June: 7.88%Sept: 6.67%Dec: 6.31%
    Mar 2010: 6.67%June: 6.09%Sept: 5.62%Dec: 5.75%
    Mar 2011: 5.48%June: 5.64%Sept: 6.02%Dec: 5.34%
    Mar 2012: 5.16%June: 4.84%Sept: 4.89%Dec: 4.69%
    Mar 2013: 4.66%June: 5.09%Sept: 5.49%Dec:
    Health Care Price/FFO Ratios 12-13

    The analyst projected FFO stats for UTH that I find at Yahoo Finance look bad to me. Those projections are not in line with what UHT is reporting. This date uses a 2013 FFO projection that is a run rate based on current trends. HTA IPOed in June of 2012. 'Normalized FFO' stats for the pre-IPO years came from its 2011 10-K. When AVIV and DOC were added to the sector on 11-19-13, the sector average 2013 price/FFO ratio rose from 14.94 to 15.79 and the 2014 ratio fell from 13.90 to 13.80. 2012 FFO growth was 10.77% and 2013 growth was 7.65%.

     

     


     FFO / Share% FFO GrowthPrice/FFO14 FFO Range
    Co.20092010201120122013201411-1212-1313-14201220132014HighLowRange

    AVIV0.000.000.000.001.251.85  48.00na19.0712.891901767.57%
    DOC0.000.000.000.000.270.98  262.96na42.8111.80842164.29%
    HCN3.123.133.413.513.794.022.937.986.0715.3614.2213.414133905.72%
    HCP2.142.192.692.762.993.062.608.332.3412.9611.9611.693172976.54%
    HR1.651.291.151.311.301.4213.91-0.769.2316.1016.2214.851471358.45%
    HTA0.000.380.510.610.640.6919.614.927.8116.2315.4714.35736413.04%
    LTC1.891.882.152.262.352.655.123.9812.7716.0015.3913.652702584.53%
    MPW0.790.660.710.900.991.1226.7610.0013.1313.3612.1410.731141103.57%
    NHI2.332.762.883.183.534.1310.4211.0117.0017.9416.1613.813903665.81%
    OHI1.471.611.892.192.512.7115.8714.617.9713.7912.0311.142762596.27%
    SBRA0.000.001.311.411.872.157.6332.6214.9718.2313.7511.9623717827.44%
    SNH1.691.701.731.751.701.751.16-2.862.9412.5812.9512.581831679.14%
    UHT2.802.612.572.842.732.8010.51-3.872.5614.6515.2414.862802800.00%
    VTR2.662.853.373.804.134.3612.768.685.5714.7313.5512.844454215.50%

    Average      -43.3412.1115.1616.5012.90

    Historical Price/FFO ratios for the sector:

    Mar 2007: 15.23June: 13.19Sept: 14.18Dec: 14.55
    Mar 2008: 14.17June: 13.27Sept: 15.95Dec: 12.38
    Mar 2009: 9.42June: 10.84Sept: 12.61Dec: 13.90
    Mar 2010: 12.61June: 14.10Sept: 15.45Dec: 15.41
    Mar 2011: 15.07June: 14.62Sept: 12.91Dec: 14.95
    Mar 2012: 14.21June: 15.25Sept: 15.05Dec: 15.82
    Mar 2013: 17.18June: 15.84Sept: 15.21Dec:

    note: the addition of AVIV and DOC to this added messes with the significance of the large jump in sector average price/FFO ratios for December 2013.

    Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations

     

     


    CompanyQ4-13MyTotalBondsMyTotal RtnConsensusPr ImplDiv
      YieldCAGRReturnRatingsRRRs- RRRRatingsCAGR/ FAD

    Aviv REITAVIV6.04%5.00%11.04%NR10.700.342.84.6683.72
    Physicians RealtyDOC7.79%3.20%10.99%NR10.200.791.52.4197.83
    Health Care REITHCN5.68%4.10%9.78%BBB9.000.782.73.3292.17
    Health Care PropHCP5.87%4.10%9.97%BBB+9.200.772.83.3383.67
    Health Care RealtyHR5.69%1.50%7.19%BBB-8.20-1.013.02.5190.23
    Health Care TrustHTA5.81%3.00%8.81%BBB-8.000.812.42.1999.14
    LTC PropertyLTC5.64%4.40%10.04%NR9.700.342.94.0689.47
    Med Prop TrustMPW6.99%4.50%11.49%BB10.600.893.03.6190.32
    Nat'l Health InvNHI5.15%5.00%10.15%NR9.800.353.14.6582.82
    Omega HealthOHI6.36%4.50%10.86%BBB-10.500.362.84.1485.33
    Sabra Health CareSBRA5.29%5.00%10.29%BB-10.000.291.94.7177.27
    Senior HousingSNH7.08%2.00%9.08%BBB-8.700.383.21.6299.36
    Universal HealthUHT6.01%3.00%9.01%NR9.000.013.02.9990.91
    VentasVTR5.18%6.20%11.38%BBB9.501.882.84.3273.23

    Average 6.04%3.96%10.01%   2.71

    Disclosure: I am long LTC, OHI, VTR.

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  • DAG1996
    , contributor
    Comments (3064) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for the very helpful update and data.
    14 Dec 2013, 12:16 AM Reply Like
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