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I seek to liberate investors from the chains of borrowed opinions by teaching metric awareness that leads to the formation of your own opinions. I am a retail investor that gathers, processes and analyzes significantly more data than average. I share that data in my articles. I let the data do... More
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  • Grocery Portfolio 12-18-13 0 comments
    Dec 18, 2013 6:11 PM

    With GIS having an earnings disappointment today, I wanted to refresh my stats. This is a sector where I do not follow the operation metrics. I have no special skills in this sector. Anyone copying my holdings should not expect to capture any extra return. I really like the sector for its high dividend growth, dependable dividend growth, and long history of dividend growth. Note - my consensus analyst ratings are from the end of Q2-13 - thus they are a bit stale.

    Grocery Portfolio 12-18-13

    The Q4-13 div is used for yield calculations. GIS has already declared an increased dividend for Q3-13. HRL has already declared an increased dividend for Q1-14. The second Div/EPS ratio has the 2014 EPS projection as the denominator. HRL purchased Skippy and share prices jumped. FLO make an offer for Hostess and share prices jumped. FLO had a three-for-two split on 6-19-13. "Div 1 yr" measures the change in the dividend since Q4-12. "Div 5 yr" measures the average change in the dividend since Q4-08.

     

     


      12-31-1212-18DivCurrentDiv/Div/Percent Change
    CompanyPricePrice/QuaterYieldEPS13EPS14PricePr+DivEPS13TargetDiv 1yrDiv 5yr

    ArDanMidlndADM27.3943.140.1901.7633 %24 %57.5060.28-27.0144.128.577.14
    CampbellCPB34.8943.330.3132.8848 %46 %24.1927.772.7614.237.765.00
    CokeKO36.2540.020.2802.8053 %49 %10.4013.49-4.116.139.809.47
    ConAgraCAG29.5031.790.2503.1546 %41 %7.7611.153.858.410.006.32
    ColgateCL52.2764.640.3402.1048 %44 %23.6726.27-4.0719.779.6814.00
    IngredionINGR64.4366.880.3802.2729 %26 %3.806.16-10.39-4.0846.1534.29
    CloroxCLX73.2293.400.7103.0466 %61 %27.5631.440.0015.5310.9410.87
    FlowersFLO15.3522.100.1132.0446 %41 %43.9746.9125.9740.505.4413.73
    General MillsGIS40.4249.730.3803.0657 %52 %23.0326.790.3717.8215.1515.35
    HersheyHSY72.2295.800.4852.0352 %47 %32.6535.344.5133.5415.4812.55
    HormelHRL31.2144.850.2001.7841 %36 %43.7046.270.5252.4717.6523.24
    KelloggK55.8560.530.4603.0449 %45 %8.3811.674.4115.524.557.06
    Kimberly-ClarkKMB84.43105.140.8103.0857 %53 %24.5328.371.6118.119.467.93
    LancasterLANC69.1987.400.4402.0144 %41 %26.3228.23-0.993.1415.7910.88
    McCormickMKC63.5368.050.3402.0043 %39 %7.119.26-5.659.039.688.33
    PepsiPEP68.4381.420.5682.7952 %48 %18.9822.30-1.1319.225.586.71
    Procter&GamblePG67.8982.380.6032.9360 %56 %21.3424.892.2715.857.1110.13
    JM SmuckerSJM86.24101.860.5802.2843 %40 %18.1120.803.0726.4711.5416.25

    Average    2.5048 %44 %23.5026.52-0.2219.776.1812.18

    The SPY [S&P 500 EFT] is up 27.59% year to date. - and with unreinvested dividends is up 28.67% year to date.
    The KXI [Consumer Staples ETF] is up 14.79% year to date - and with unreinvested dividends is up 16.06%.
    With the 10 Treasury at 2.88% and the sector average yield [on Q4 Divs] at 2.5% - the spread is -38 basis points.
    * The change in the dividend is for the last twelve months and not year to date.

    Dividend dates are:

    ADM : 12-04-13CPB: 01-26-14KO : 12-15-13CAG: 12-02-13CL: 11-14-13
    INGR : 10-24-13CLX : 02-14-14FLO: 12-19-13GIS : 02-02-14
    HSY: 12-12-13HRL : 02-14-14K : 12-15-13KMB: 01-02-14
    LANC: 12-29-13MKC: 01-13-14PEP: 01-01-14PG: 11-14-13SJM: 12-01-13

    Historical yields for the sector:

    Mar 2010: 2.77%June: 2.92%Sept: 2.92%Dec: 2.78%
    Mar 2011: 2.84%June: 2.76%Sept: 2.94%Dec: 2.81%
    Mar 2012: 2.81%June: 2.82%Sept: 2.80%Dec: 2.81%
    Mar 2013: 2.42%June: 2.47%Sept: 2.58%Dec:

    Price/Earnings Ratios 12-18
    CPB, CAG, CLX, GIS, HRL,LANC, PG and SJM have started their fiscal 2014s

     

     


     EPS / Share% EPS GrowthPrice/EPS13 EPS Range
    Co.2010201120122013201410-1111-1212-1313-14201220132014HighLowRange

    ADM3.063.472.302.273.2113.40-33.72-1.3041.4118.7619.0013.443.502.8628.19%
    CPB2.472.542.442.612.742.83-3.946.974.9817.7616.6015.812.402.64-9.20%
    KO1.751.922.012.102.279.714.694.488.1019.9119.0617.632.362.217.14%
    CAG1.741.751.842.162.420.575.1417.3912.0417.2814.7213.142.482.403.70%
    CL2.422.522.682.833.114.136.355.609.8924.1222.8420.783.203.045.65%
    INGR3.244.685.575.265.9144.4419.02-5.5712.3612.0112.7111.326.405.4518.06%
    CLX4.243.934.104.314.62-7.314.335.127.1922.7821.6720.224.744.554.41%
    FLO0.660.640.690.971.11-3.037.8140.5814.4332.0322.7819.911.210.8537.11%
    GIS2.302.482.562.692.927.833.235.088.5519.4318.4917.033.272.9611.52%
    HSY2.552.823.243.714.1010.5914.8914.5110.5129.5725.8223.374.194.014.85%
    HRL1.511.741.861.952.2215.236.904.8413.8524.1123.0020.202.402.0418.46%
    K3.303.383.613.794.092.426.804.997.9216.7715.9714.804.253.948.18%
    KMB4.684.805.255.686.062.569.388.196.6920.0318.5117.356.255.906.16%
    LANC4.073.843.453.994.29-5.65-10.1615.657.5225.3321.9020.374.354.233.01%
    MKC2.652.793.043.173.495.288.964.2810.0922.3821.4719.503.573.405.36%
    PEP4.134.404.104.364.736.54-6.826.348.4919.8618.6717.214.904.636.19%
    PG4.113.953.854.054.30-3.89-2.535.196.1721.4020.3419.164.424.254.20%
    SJM4.354.814.735.375.7910.57-1.6613.537.8221.5318.9717.596.255.7010.24%

    Average     2.158.6611.0021.3919.5917.71   

    Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations

     

     


    CompanyQ4-13ConsensusTotalBondsEPSMyTotal RtnConsensusPr ImplDividend
      YieldCAGRReturnRatingsAccrRRRs- RRRRatingsCAGR/ EPS

    ArDanMidlndADM1.76%8.90%10.66%A3.0011.00-0.342.89.2433.48
    CampbellCPB2.88%6.50%9.38%A1.0010.00-0.623.17.1247.89
    CokeKO2.80%7.80%10.60%A+1.0010.000.602.17.2053.33
    ConAgraCAG3.15%7.50%10.65%BBB-1.0010.500.152.17.3546.30
    ColgateCL2.10%8.20%10.30%AA-1.0010.000.302.77.9048.06
    IngredionINGR2.27%9.10%11.37%none2.0011.000.372.48.7328.90
    CloroxCLX3.04%7.50%10.54%BB1.5011.00-0.462.97.9665.89
    FlowersFLO2.04%9.50%11.54%none3.0011.200.342.49.1646.39
    General MillsGIS3.06%7.70%10.76%BBB+1.0010.500.262.27.4456.51
    HersheyHSY2.03%9.30%11.33%A1.0010.001.332.47.9752.29
    HormelHRL1.78%9.50%11.28%A1.0010.001.282.88.2241.03
    KelloggK3.04%7.70%10.74%BBB+2.0010.500.242.87.4648.55
    Kimberly-ClarkKMB3.08%7.50%10.58%BBB-2.0010.80-0.223.07.7257.04
    LancasterLANC2.01%8.90%10.91%A2.0010.500.413.08.4944.11
    McCormickMKC2.00%8.40%10.40%none1.5010.300.102.88.3042.90
    PepsiPEP2.79%7.50%10.29%A-2.0010.40-0.112.37.6152.06
    Procter&GamblePG2.93%7.40%10.33%A-1.5010.200.132.27.2759.51
    JM SmuckerSJM2.28%8.30%10.58%AA1.2010.100.482.57.8243.20

    Average 2.50%8.18%10.68%    2.58

    Disclosure: I am long CL, CLX, HRL, GIS, PEP, PG, SJM.

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