Seeking Alpha

Factoids'  Instablog

Factoids
Send Message
I seek to liberate investors from the chains of borrowed opinions by teaching metric awareness that leads to the formation of your own opinions. I am a retail investor that gathers, processes and analyzes significantly more data than average. I share that data in my articles. I let the data do... More
My blog:
Factoids' Instablog
  • MLP Midstream Stats 12-20-13 0 comments
    Dec 21, 2013 7:30 PM

    MLP Midstream 12-20-13
    Yields are based on the Q4-13 distribution. Under the 'year to date' header, the change in the distribution is actually the change since Q4-13 - or the change over the last twelve months. The change in the target, EPS, DCF and CAGR is the percentage change in the consensus 2013 projection that has happened since the beginning of the year.

     

     


      CurrentDistrib/Q4 DistDist/dcfDist/dcfYear-to-Date Percent Change
      PriceQuarterYield20132014PricePr+DistEPSTargetDCFDist*cagr

    AccessACMP53.120.53504.0379.8567.7258.3864.76-24.8545.9612.6122.996.67
    AmericanAMID26.120.45256.93125.6980.0991.50104.77-84.859.09-30.774.6250.00
    Atlas PipelinesAPL34.370.62007.2299.2083.228.8716.72-97.193.75-18.838.77-1.09
    BlueKnightBKEP8.940.12255.4870.0047.5735.8743.3132.2614.29-17.658.890.00
    BuckeyeBPL69.841.07506.1698.6289.7753.8063.27-1.8228.250.693.61122.22
    BoardwalkBWP24.480.53258.70104.93104.93-1.696.87-19.051.58-10.180.00-28.57
    CrestwoodCMLP23.950.40506.7686.6380.6011.2418.76-84.76-4.24-15.006.5811.11
    DCP PartnersDPM46.850.72006.15101.0585.2112.2219.11-16.3612.45-11.495.886.35
    El PasoEPB34.250.65007.5999.6295.59-7.36-0.32-12.09-0.42-5.4312.07-71.43
    EnbridgeEEP29.060.54357.48118.1597.934.1611.95-41.54-2.65-17.120.00-10.00
    EnterpriseEPD62.680.69004.4071.8867.8125.1630.674.4618.582.676.1511.67
    Energy TransETP52.520.90506.8990.5078.8722.3430.7719.3921.062.041.2616.67
    Eagle RockEROC5.260.150011.4181.08100.00-39.19-32.25-84.85-32.69-30.84-31.82-98.33
    ExterranEXLP28.750.52757.3477.2979.0341.8452.2475.6418.605.813.94-25.00
    GenesisGEL52.100.52254.0185.6670.3745.8651.71-21.0548.900.0010.5824.29
    HollyHEP32.640.49256.0493.8187.56-0.765.23-35.33-2.03-4.556.4915.38
    Kinder MorganKMP79.261.35006.81100.9394.41-0.666.10-3.190.77-5.317.140.00
    MagellanMMP59.380.55753.7682.5975.3437.4942.6513.5735.419.3114.953.53
    Mark WestMWE63.420.85005.3693.4169.3924.3330.99-63.4329.29-15.354.94-2.25
    TargaNGLS49.320.73255.94102.4584.4431.9439.78-32.3318.86-16.3710.57-13.75
    NuStarNS50.051.09508.75132.33114.3617.8228.13-49.77-1.98-19.270.00-25.00
    OneOKOKS51.910.72505.5999.3288.15-3.851.52-15.02-9.44-9.605.84-18.29
    Plains All-AmPAA50.570.60004.7573.6271.6411.7817.0913.3321.149.0310.6041.67
    RegencyRGP24.190.47007.7796.9188.6811.5820.25-38.648.92-3.962.17-16.67
    SpectraSEP42.260.51634.8998.3472.4635.3241.931.2037.68-1.415.3761.90
    SuncoSXL70.510.63003.5755.3854.0841.7946.85-0.8833.4034.2221.7430.88
    TCPipelinesTCP45.540.81007.1189.2689.2612.8320.86-15.047.880.283.85-11.76
    TransmontaigneTLP39.950.65006.5174.2972.225.2112.06-30.1520.37-1.411.563.45
    WesternWES60.150.58003.8693.1777.5926.2931.16-6.0828.96-14.1416.003.33
    WilliamsWPZ49.770.87757.05110.3899.152.289.49-32.66-7.38-16.758.67-16.92
    Cross-TexXTEX26.090.33005.0694.2982.5079.3188.380.0068.24-35.480.0041.67

    Pipeline Average  6.2492.9282.2622.4429.83-21.0015.2512.185.92 
    Shipping
    NaviosNMM19.210.44259.21101.14121.2356.4370.85-10.5316.736.060.000.00
    MartinMMLP41.470.78257.5595.4388.6733.5243.59-25.0033.51-4.091.626.45
    TeeKayTGP41.710.67506.4793.4395.7410.4017.55-1.356.70-6.170.00-60.00

    Shipping Average  7.7493.52 33.4544.00-12.2918.98  

    MidStream Average 6.3793.2583.9923.4131.08-20.2315.57  

    The (price change only) Alerian MLP index [the ^AMZ - which includes other MLP sectors] is 15.68% year to date.
    The Alerian MLP index ETN AMJ is 15.73% and with dividends is 21.42%.
    The S&P500 index ETF SPY is 27.51% and with dividends is 29.87%.
    The Russell 2000 index ETF IWM is 34.57% and with dividend is 35.73%.
    With the 10yr Treasury @ 2.89% & the sector average yield [on Q4 distrib's] at 6.37% - the spread is 348 bps.
    With the JNK yielding 5.91% - spread to the Lehman U.S. High Yield Index is 46 bps.
    With the HYG yielding 5.78% - the spread to the iBOXX High Yield Index is 59 bps.

    Historical MLP Month-End Yields:

    Jan 05: 5.97%Feb: 6.10%Mar: 6.07%April: 6.15%May: 6.16%June: 6.03%
    July 05: 5.87%Aug: 6.10%Sept: 6.07%Oct : 6.45%Nov: 6.79%Dec: 6.92%
    Jan 06: 6.56%Feb: 6.68%Mar: 6.56%April: 6.68%May: 6.76%June: 6.82%
    July 06: 6.61%Aug: 6.65%Sept: 6.70%Oct : 6.58%Nov: 6.44%Dec: 6.28%
    Jan 07: 6.05%Feb: 5.96%Mar: 5.77%April: 5.54%May: 5.54%June: 5.43%
    July 07: 5.44%Aug: 6.05%Sept: 6.26%Oct : 6.20%Nov: 6.64%Dec: 6.70%
    Jan 08: 6.79%Feb: 6.79%Mar: 7.43%April: 7.08%May: 7.44%June: 7.56%
    July 08: 8.16%Aug: 8.45%Sept: 10.76%Oct : 11.73%Nov: 16.53%Dec: 19.50%
    Jan 09: 14.76%Feb: 14.54%Mar: 13.90%April: 14.66%May: 9.80%June: 9.59%
    July 09: 8.39%Aug: 8.61%Sept: 7.96%Oct : 7.84%Nov: 7.62%Dec: 7.13%
    Jan 10: 6.64%Feb: 6.50%Mar: 6.34%April: 6.23%May: 6.71%June: 6.27%
    July 10: 5.85%Aug: 6.14%Sept: 5.89%Oct : 6.14%*Nov: 6.00%Dec: 5.79%
    Jan 11: 5.87%Feb: 5.62%Mar: 5.65%April: 5.59%May: 5.95%June: 5.90%
    July 11: 6.21%Aug: 6.73%Sept: 7.10%**Oct : 6.51%Nov: 6.80%Dec: 6.45%
    Jan 12: 6.45%Feb: 6.43%Mar: 6.43%April: 6.42%May: 7.26%June: 7.06%
    July 12: 6.81%Aug: 6.87%Sept: 6.75%Oct : 6.79%Nov: 7.08%Dec: 7.31%
    Jan 13: x.xx%Feb: x.xx%Mar: x.xx%April: x.xx%May: x.xx%June: 6.14%
    July 13: 6.18%Aug: 6.51%Sept: 6.39%Oct : 6.34%Nov: 6.21%Dec:

    * The increase in month end yields occurring in the October 2010 stats was mainly due to APL and XTEX re-starting distributions, and not due to a decrease in the unit prices of the MLPs. And the same cause was evident in the increase in the MLP to ten year treasury spread.
    ** The deletion of low yielding DEP from the data base added 7 bps to the sector average yield - and thus had an impact on all spread numbers. Historical MLP to 10 Year Treasury Spreads:

    Jan 05: 178Feb: 152Mar: 156April: 195May: 216June: 211
    July 05: 159Aug: 208Sept: 174Oct : 177Nov: 230Dec: 252
    Jan 06: 206Feb: 213Mar: 171April: 161May: 164June: 167
    July 06: 161Aug: 192Sept: 206Oct : 198Nov: 198Dec: 158
    Jan 07: 123Feb: 138Mar: 122April: 89May: 65June: 40
    July 07: 71Aug: 152Sept: 167Oct : 172Nov: 269Dec: 267
    Jan 08: 319Feb: 327Mar: 401April: 335May: 338June: 358
    July 08: 420Aug: 463Sept: 694Oct : 801Nov: 1360Dec: 1728
    Jan 09: 1191Feb: 1152Mar: 1294April: 1154May: 634June: 606
    July 09: 491Aug: 551Sept: 488Oct : 485Nov: 443Dec: 329
    Jan 10: 305Feb: 288Mar: 251April: 257May: 341June: 333
    July 10: 294Aug: 367Sept: 337Oct : 354Nov: 321Dec: 250
    Jan 11: 250Feb: 224Mar: 219April: 230May: 289June: 273
    July 11: 341Aug: 454Sept: 518Oct : 439Nov: 472Dec: 457
    Jan 12: 457Feb: 421Mar: 421April: 450May: 570June: 546
    July 12: 534Aug: 531Sept: 511Oct : 510Nov: 546Dec: 555
    Jan 13:Feb:Mar:April:May:June: 366
    July 13: 360Aug: 373Sept: 378Oct : 379Nov: 347Dec:

    Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations

     

     


    CompanyQ4-13ConsensusTotalBondsDCFMyTotal RtnConsensusPr ImplDistrib
      YieldCAGRReturnRatingsAccrRRRs- RRRRatingsCAGR/ DCF
    Large Cap Midstream
    BuckeyeBPL6.16%4.00%10.16%BBB-2.3010.40-0.242.54.2489.77
    BoardwalkBWP8.70%1.50%10.20%BBB3.2010.70-0.502.92.00104.93
    El PasoEPB7.59%2.00%9.59%BBB-1.2010.30-0.712.92.7195.59
    EnbridgeEEP7.48%2.70%10.18%BBB2.4010.50-0.322.53.0297.93
    EnterpriseEPD4.40%6.70%11.10%BBB+1.209.701.401.75.3067.81
    Energy TransETP6.89%3.50%10.39%BBB-3.0010.70-0.312.53.8178.87
    Kinder MorganKMP6.81%4.50%11.31%BBB1.0010.001.312.73.1994.41
    MagellanMMP3.76%8.80%12.56%BBB1.0010.002.562.56.2475.34
    NuStarNS8.75%1.50%10.25%BB+4.0012.00-1.753.33.25114.36
    OneOKOKS5.59%6.70%12.29%BBB1.5010.501.793.04.9188.15
    Plains All-AmPAA4.75%8.50%13.25%BBB1.0010.003.251.95.2571.64
    WilliamsWPZ7.05%5.40%12.45%BBB3.0011.001.452.33.9599.15

    Average 6.49%4.65%11.14%    2.56

    CompanyQ4-13ConsensusTotalBondsDCFMyTotal RtnConsensusPr ImplDistrib
      YieldCAGRReturnRatingsAccrRRRs- RRRRatingsCAGR/ DCF
    Small Cap Midstream
    BlueKnightBKEP5.48%9.00%14.48%NR4.0013.001.483.57.5247.57
    GenesisGEL4.01%8.70%12.71%BB-2.7011.800.911.87.7970.37
    HollyHEP6.04%6.00%12.04%BB1.3011.200.843.35.1687.56
    SpectraSEP4.89%6.80%11.69%BBB2.2010.501.192.95.6172.46
    SuncoSXL3.57%8.90%12.47%BBB-1.0010.002.472.76.4354.08
    TCPipelinesTCP7.11%3.00%10.11%BBB1.0010.000.113.22.8989.26
    TransmontaigneTLP6.51%3.00%9.51%NR1.2010.00-0.491.73.4972.22

    Average 5.37%6.49%11.86%    2.73

    CompanyQ4-13ConsensusTotalBondsDCFMyTotal RtnConsensusPr ImplDistrib
      YieldCAGRReturnRatingsAccrRRRs- RRRRatingsCAGR/ DCF
    Gathering & Processing
    AccessACMP4.03%9.60%13.63%BB-1.5012.001.631.77.9767.72
    AmericanAMID6.93%4.50%11.43%NR5.0012.50-1.071.45.5780.09
    Atlas PipelinesAPL7.22%9.10%16.32%B+5.0013.502.821.46.2883.22
    CrestwoodCMLP6.76%5.00%11.76%B-3.7012.50-0.742.15.7480.60
    DCP PartnersDPM6.15%6.70%12.85%BBB-2.7011.501.352.15.3585.21
    Eagle RockEROC11.41%0.10%11.51%B5.0013.50-1.992.62.09100.00
    ExterranEXLP7.34%3.00%10.34%B-2.2011.50-1.162.54.1679.03
    Mark WestMWE5.36%8.70%14.06%BB3.2012.501.561.77.1469.39
    TargaNGLS5.94%6.90%12.84%BB1.7012.200.641.96.2684.44
    RegencyRGP7.77%4.00%11.77%BB-3.2012.00-0.232.64.2388.68
    WesternWES3.86%9.30%13.16%BBB-1.7011.201.961.97.3477.59
    Cross-TexXTEX5.06%8.50%13.56%B+4.0013.500.062.38.4482.50

    Average 6.49%6.28%12.77%    2.02

    I include EPS stats because I perceive that the audience wants them. I ingore these numbers - and only use valuations based on DCF projections.

    MLP P/E Stats by Category 12-20
     

     

     Earnings / ShareEarn. GrowthP/E Ratios13 EPS Range
    Co.2010201120122013201411-1312-1313-14201220132014HighLowRange
    Large Capped MLPs
    BPL341333293324373-12.01%10.58%15.12%23.8421.5618.7236027326.85%
    BWP139133131119121-1.50%-9.16%1.68%18.6920.5720.2314910834.45%
    EPB1952122151892061.42%-12.09%8.99%15.9318.1216.6324819130.16%
    EEP1501409976110-29.29%-23.23%44.74%29.3538.2426.421175285.53%
    EPD18821027128129829.05%3.69%6.05%23.1322.3121.0333526923.49%
    ETP128155442234243185.16%-47.06%3.85%11.8822.4421.6129311974.36%
    KMP14718023124327428.33%5.19%12.76%34.3132.6228.9329421831.28%
    MMP14017920225127812.85%24.26%10.76%29.4023.6621.3623620611.95%
    NS29329273107186-75.00%46.58%73.83%68.5646.7826.9120713567.29%
    OKS1672873042322695.92%-23.68%15.95%17.0822.3819.3024119718.97%
    PAA14325133530627033.47%-8.66%-11.76%15.1016.5318.7335826929.08%
    WPZ263366189167217-48.36%-11.64%29.94%26.3329.8022.9425511882.04%

    Average    10.84-3.7717.6626.1326.2521.90

     Earnings / ShareEarn. GrowthP/E Ratios13 EPS Range
    Co.2010201120122013201411-1312-1313-14201220132014HighLowRange
    Small Capped MLPs
    BKEP05334153560.00%24.24%29.27%27.0921.8016.87382726.83%
    GEL9610912612018715.60%-4.76%55.83%41.3543.4227.8618012843.33%
    HEP103126129971182.38%-24.81%21.65%25.3033.6527.6613510926.80%
    SEP1681661691692561.81%0.00%51.48%25.0125.0116.5121311955.62%
    SXL18326041233730058.46%-18.20%-10.98%17.1120.9223.5044323661.42%
    TCP281306251209233-17.97%-16.73%11.48%18.1421.7919.5527220930.14%
    TLP25020923118322210.53%-20.78%21.31%17.2921.8318.002232126.01%

    Average    90.11-8.7225.7224.4726.9221.42

     Earnings / ShareEarn. GrowthP/E Ratios13 EPS Range
    Co.2010201120122013201411-1312-1313-14201220132014HighLowRange
    G&P MLPs
    ACMP138135111124161-17.78%11.71%29.84%47.8642.8432.9920611870.97%
    AMID053355560.00%-84.85%0.00%79.15522.40522.403827220.00%
    APL55741385105-75.96%-96.38%2000.00%24.91687.4032.732091551080.00%
    CMLP123122771656-36.89%-79.22%250.00%31.10149.6942.776841168.75%
    DPM14119922818424014.57%-19.30%30.43%20.5525.4619.5225914462.50%
    EROC30351155-68.57%-54.55%0.00%47.82105.20105.20165220.00%
    EXLP71084137124740.00%63.10%-9.49%34.2320.9923.1913510124.82%
    MWE11422016964162-23.18%-62.13%153.13%37.5399.0939.1514512432.81%
    NGLS8717513490156-23.43%-32.84%73.33%36.8154.8031.621396977.78%
    RGP2745182747-60.00%50.00%74.07%134.3989.5951.47375118.52%
    WES15816784170231-49.70%102.38%35.88%71.6135.3826.0417110240.59%
    XTEX5555460.00%0.00%820.00%521.80521.8056.72105100.00%

    Average    79.92-16.84288.1090.64196.2281.98

     Earnings / ShareEarn. GrowthP/E Ratios13 EPS Range
    Co.2010201120122013201411-1312-1313-14201220132014HighLowRange
    Marine Transport MLPs
    NMM1511401328568-5.71%-35.61%-20.00%14.5522.6028.25917617.65%
    MMLP721221321231608.20%-6.82%30.08%31.4233.7225.9221914361.79%
    TGP18015823621921449.37%-7.20%-2.28%17.6719.0519.4926818338.81%

    Average    17.28-16.542.6021.2125.1224.55

    MLP Price/DCF Stats by Category 12-20
     

     

     DCF / UnitDCF GrowthPrice/DCF Ratios
    Co.2008200920102011201220132014201511-1312-1313-1414-152012201320142015
    Large Capped MLPs
    BPL3.504.054.133.623.764.364.795.143.87%15.96%9.86%7.31%18.5716.0214.5813.59
    BWP2.051.672.161.952.172.032.032.0811.28%-6.45%0.00%2.46%11.2812.0612.0611.77
    EPB1.411.692.272.452.602.612.722.886.12%0.38%4.21%5.88%13.1713.1212.5911.89
    EEP2.292.132.272.201.961.842.222.47-10.91%-6.12%20.65%11.26%14.8315.7913.0911.77
    EPD2.682.603.173.553.453.844.074.35-2.82%11.30%5.99%6.88%18.1716.3215.4014.41
    ETP4.323.553.403.503.704.004.594.325.71%8.11%14.75%-5.88%14.1913.1311.4412.16
    KMP4.174.154.404.705.235.355.725.9911.28%2.29%6.92%4.72%15.1514.8113.8613.23
    MMP1.781.511.832.032.232.702.963.349.85%21.08%9.63%12.84%26.6321.9920.0617.78
    NS5.864.894.454.603.133.313.834.63-31.96%5.75%15.71%20.89%15.9915.1213.0710.81
    OKS2.982.312.323.303.302.923.293.820.00%-11.52%12.67%16.11%15.7317.7815.7813.59
    PAA2.012.052.052.633.103.263.353.0917.87%5.16%2.76%-7.76%16.3115.5115.1016.37
    WPZ3.652.983.744.253.403.183.543.80-20.00%-6.47%11.32%7.34%14.6415.6514.0613.10

    Average       0.03%3.29%9.54%6.84%16.2215.6114.2613.37

     DCF / UnitDCF GrowthPrice/DCF Ratios
    Co.2008200920102011201220132014201511-1312-1313-1414-152012201320142015
    Small Capped MLPs
    BKEP0.000.000.000.000.700.701.031.03na0.00%47.14%0.00%12.7712.778.688.68
    GEL2.211.942.162.002.272.442.973.3613.50%7.49%21.72%13.13%22.9521.3517.5415.51
    HEP1.651.721.751.832.102.102.252.3314.75%0.00%7.14%3.56%15.5415.5414.5114.01
    SEP1.622.092.002.052.082.102.852.461.46%0.96%35.71%-13.68%20.3220.1214.8317.18
    SXL1.942.131.942.903.704.554.664.4627.59%22.97%2.42%-4.29%19.0615.5015.1315.81
    TCP4.184.003.904.003.863.633.633.87-3.50%-5.96%0.00%6.61%11.8012.5512.5511.77
    TLP3.153.243.443.303.613.503.603.539.39%-3.05%2.86%-1.94%11.0711.4111.1011.32

    Average       10.53%3.74%19.50%0.48%18.9218.2115.7215.71

     DCF / UnitDCF GrowthPrice/DCF Ratios
    Co.2008200920102011201220132014201511-1312-1313-1414-152012201320142015
    G&P MLPs
    ACMP0.000.001.541.802.202.683.163.2922.22%21.82%17.91%4.11%24.1519.8216.8116.15
    AMID0.000.000.000.001.901.442.262.26na-24.21%56.94%0.00%13.7518.1411.5611.56
    APL3.850.901.672.302.482.502.983.337.83%0.81%19.20%11.74%13.8613.7511.5310.32
    CMLP1.662.071.972.002.071.872.012.163.50%-9.66%7.49%7.46%11.5712.8111.9211.09
    DPM2.422.692.482.772.682.853.383.71-3.25%6.34%18.60%9.76%17.4816.4413.8612.63
    EROC2.341.621.051.001.000.740.600.680.00%-26.00%-18.92%13.33%5.267.118.777.74
    EXLP3.142.192.262.502.462.732.672.41-1.60%10.98%-2.20%-9.74%11.6910.5310.7711.93
    MWE3.362.943.484.303.783.644.905.80-12.09%-3.70%34.62%18.37%16.7817.4212.9410.93
    NGLS3.142.552.653.303.172.863.473.85-3.94%-9.78%21.33%10.95%15.5617.2414.2112.81
    RGP2.541.591.821.901.861.942.122.01-2.11%4.30%9.28%-5.19%13.0112.4711.4112.03
    WES1.401.582.212.402.672.492.993.2211.25%-6.74%20.08%7.69%22.5324.1620.1218.68
    XTEX2.521.371.642.001.651.401.601.86-17.50%-15.15%14.29%16.25%15.8118.6416.3114.03

    Average       0.39%-4.64%18.06%7.70%16.4917.1414.5613.63

     DCF / UnitDCF GrowthPrice/DCF Ratios
    Co.2008200920102011201220132014201511-1312-1313-1414-152012201320142015
    Marine Transport MLPs
    NMM1.601.701.902.101.891.751.461.50-10.00%-7.41%-16.57%2.74%10.1610.9813.1612.81

    Average       -3.33%-2.47%-5.52%0.91%3.393.664.394.27

Back To Factoids' Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.