Seeking Alpha

Factoids'  Instablog

Factoids
Send Message
I seek to liberate investors from the chains of borrowed opinions by teaching metric awareness that leads to the formation of your own opinions. I lack the usual attributes that qualifies me to write on investing. I am a retail investor. But I do gather, process and analyze significantly more... More
My blog:
Factoids' Instablog
  • BDC Stats 12-31-13 2 comments
    Jan 3, 2014 9:34 PM

    BDCs 12-31-13

    Yield in the spreadsheet below is based on the Q4-13 dividend. Spreadsheet header abbreviations: Div = dividend; EPS = earnings per share; LTM = last twelve months; YTD = year to date. The dividend to EPS ratio is a measure of dividend safety. Due to calendar and fiscal years failing to overlap, I also include a dividend to the sum of the last four quarters of NII - in the Div/NIIltm column. The dividend to NAV ratio is a measure of safety and efficiency. The last four columns measure the percentage change in the 2013 EPS projection and the change in the price target since the beginning of the year; the change in the Q4-13 dividend from the Q4-12 dividend. Special dividends are not included in this data. ARCC will pay a special dividend of $0.05/share payable on 12-31-13 and again on 3-28-14. FDUS will pay a special dividend of $0.38/share payable 12-20-13. MAIN will pay a special dividend of $0.25/share on 12-24-13. FSC and FULL have cut their first quarter dividend - and that new rate is temporarily encoded as a Q4-12 div to show their forward yield

     

     


      Share Price Div/Div/Div/Div/Q3-13PriceYTD Percent ChangeLTMLTM
    Company_name_and_ticker1-0112-31YieldEPS13EPS14NIIltmNAVNAVNAVPricePr+DivEPSTargetDivNAV

    American Cap(ACAS)12.0215.640.000.00.00.00.019.540.8030.1230.12-20.9522.32na12.36
    Apollo Invest(AINV)8.368.489.4392.090.993.49.88.301.021.4411.00-1.145.090.00-1.78
    Ares Capital(ARCC)17.5017.778.5592.791.694.99.416.351.091.5410.23-1.202.960.003.88
    BlackRock(BKCC)10.069.3311.15133.3110.6149.711.19.380.99-7.263.08-22.770.810.00-1.78
    Fidus Invest(FDUS)16.4521.746.99110.985.4109.39.515.981.3632.1641.40-19.8818.920.004.65
    Fifth St(FSC)10.429.2510.8196.194.398.810.19.850.94-11.23-1.64-6.31-5.94-13.05-0.71
    Full Circle(FULL)7.437.0411.93109.1107.7114.210.57.480.94-5.256.06-4.9410.00-9.09-12.10
    Gladstone Inv(GAIN)6.968.067.4484.585.772.57.09.120.8815.8024.4329.09-11.110.002.13
    Golub Cap(GBDC)15.9819.116.7097.793.498.98.515.211.2619.5927.602.345.880.004.18
    Gladstone Cap(GLAD)8.169.578.78100.097.795.49.89.810.9817.2827.57-2.330.000.009.85
    Horizon(HRZN)14.9214.219.71100.095.299.59.314.950.95-4.764.49-9.21-5.950.00-8.90
    Hercules(HTGC)11.1316.406.8391.186.295.311.110.421.5747.3557.4112.8438.7616.6710.62
    Kayne Ander(KED)24.4427.976.5175.870.893.36.927.841.0014.4421.8925.0022.795.8116.49
    Kohlberg(KCAP)9.198.0713.88123.1109.8123.413.68.021.01-12.190.00-10.78-1.6816.672.56
    Main St.(MAIN)30.5132.695.6992.581.691.19.920.011.637.1513.24-1.4725.383.3314.41
    Medley Cap(MCC)14.5613.8510.6996.794.396.711.612.701.09-4.885.295.522.862.780.79

      Share Price Div/Div/Div/Div/Q3-13PriceYTD Percent ChangeLTMLTM
    Company_name_and_ticker1-0112-31YieldEPS13EPS14NIIltmNAVNAVNAVPricePr+DivEPSTargetDivNAV

    MCG Capital(MCGC)4.604.4011.36113.6102.0118.99.75.100.86-4.356.52-4.357.99-10.711.59
    New Mountain(NMFC)14.9015.049.0489.598.697.89.514.321.050.9410.0711.761.500.001.56
    NGP Capital(NGPC)7.227.478.57100.0103.2101.47.09.220.813.4612.33-17.95-16.670.00-4.95
    Prospect(PSEC)10.8711.2211.8084.3104.390.512.410.721.053.2215.405.3710.120.32-1.47
    Pennant Float(PFLT)12.7013.737.8798.294.792.37.714.100.978.1116.610.006.435.880.86
    Pennant Cap(PNNT)10.9911.609.66110.9102.8110.710.710.491.115.5515.74-10.620.510.002.64
    Saratoga(SAR)15.4015.650.000.00.00.00.023.770.661.621.62-2.11-32.09na-12.61
    Solar Cap(SLRC)23.9122.557.1084.790.475.67.122.251.01-5.691.00-26.46-4.84-33.33-1.98
    Solar Senior(SUNS)18.6618.227.74119.5104.4116.07.717.911.02-2.365.20-16.901.320.00-3.71
    Medallion(TAXI)11.7414.356.4180.778.0143.69.010.381.3822.2330.077.5536.009.524.22
    Triangle Cap(TCAP)25.4927.657.8196.093.992.613.815.941.738.4716.95-0.4415.451.893.98
    THL Credit(TCRD)14.7916.498.2593.895.194.110.313.381.2311.4920.691.409.113.031.29
    TICC Cap(TICC)10.1210.3411.22111.5102.7116.511.99.901.042.1713.64-14.75-4.480.000.51

    Sector Average  8.9699.2  9.8 1.086.7715.38-3.235.57

    With the 10 Treasury at 3.03% and sector average yield (on Q4 dividends) at 8.96% - the spread is 593 bps.
    The cap weighted ETF BDCS is up 7.25% year to date - with dividends its total return is 14.72%.
    Sector yield, Dividend/NAV and Dividend/EPS ratio filter out the zero payout ACAS and SAR.
    Weeding out ACAS and SAR, the average share price gain is 6.09%.

    Dates used to credit dividends:

    ACAS : noneAINV : 10-03-13ARCC: 12-30-13BKCC: 01-02-14FDUS: 12-19-13FSC : monthlyFULL: monthly
    GAIN: monthlyGLAD;: monthlyGBDC;: 01-27-14HTGC: 11-24-13HRZN: monthlyKCAP: 10-28-13KED : 10-17-13
    MAIN: monthlyMCC: 12-13-13MCGC: 11-21-13NGPC: 01-06-14PFLT: monthlyPNNT : 01-01-14PSEC: monthly
    SAR: noneSLRC: 10-01-13SUNS: monthlyTAXI : 11-26-13TCAP: 12-24-13TICC : 12-30-13TCRD: 12-30-13

    Historical BDC Yield to 10 Year Treasury Spreads for the sector:

    Mar 10: 882June: 649Sept: 564Dec: 509
    Mar 11: 470June: 605Sept: 947Dec: 873
    Mar 12: 718June: 760Sept: 732Dec: 761
    Mar 13: 714June: 683Sept: 642Dec: 593

    BDC Earnings Growth & P/E Ratios 12-31

    Fiscal and calendar years are not in sync. BDCs than began fiscal 2014 on or before calendar Q4-13 include AINV, FULL, FSC, GAIN, GBDC, GLAD, MCC, PSEC, PFLT, and PNNT. The range metric is the high estimate minus the low estimate, with that result dividend by the consensus estimate - and serves as one of several measurements for assessing risk. That average is currently inflated by almost 300 bps due to atypical spreads in the projections for ACAS and GAIN. With the exception of KED, all EPS projections are from Yahoo Finance.

     

     


     Earnings / ShareEarn. GrowthP/E Ratios14 EPS Range
    Co.200820092010201120122013201411-1212-1313-14201220132014HighLowRange

    ACAS2426162126116831.08-7.94%-28.45%30.12%13.4818.8414.481108431.33%
    AINV1801481269983870.88-16.16%4.82%1.15%10.229.759.64927914.94%
    ARCC1421281321561651641.665.77%-0.61%1.22%10.7710.8410.701621544.88%
    BKCC176139101100100780.940.00%-22.00%20.51%9.3311.969.93937917.95%
    FDUS0001631541371.78-5.52%-11.04%29.93%14.1215.8712.2115613614.60%
    FSC130127951011071041.065.94%-2.80%1.92%8.648.898.731119713.46%
    FULL0008478770.78-7.14%-1.28%1.30%9.039.149.03847018.18%
    GAIN7962487362710.70-15.07%14.52%-1.41%13.0011.3511.5166608.45%
    GBDC0001161151311.37-0.86%13.91%4.58%16.6214.5913.951331293.05%
    GLAD135100848891840.863.41%-7.69%2.38%10.5211.3911.1386842.38%
    HRZN0001501411381.45-6.00%-2.13%5.07%10.0810.309.8014913212.32%
    HTGC1231258091971231.306.59%26.80%5.69%16.9113.3312.621171124.07%
    KED1351271251361892402.5738.97%26.98%7.08%14.8011.6510.882102100.00%
    KCAP150104537089911.0227.14%2.25%12.09%9.078.877.9193921.10%
    MAIN115901001692012012.2818.93%0.00%13.43%16.2616.2614.342082022.99%
    MCC000561311531.57133.93%16.79%2.61%10.579.058.821531464.58%

     Earnings / ShareEarn. GrowthP/E Ratios14 EPS Range
    Co.200820092010201120122013201411-1212-1313-14201220132014HighLowRange

    MCGC9360605325440.49-52.83%76.00%11.36%17.6010.008.9848464.55%
    NMFC000561351521.38141.07%12.59%-9.21%11.149.8910.901541502.63%
    NGPC7957547355640.62-24.66%16.36%-3.13%13.5811.6712.0569639.37%
    PSEC1911871091091631571.2749.54%-3.68%-19.11%6.887.158.8313812110.83%
    PFLT00051011101.141920.00%8.91%3.64%13.5912.4812.041151077.27%
    PNNT881091091251081011.09-13.60%-6.48%7.92%10.7411.4910.641051013.96%
    SAR130016404572151861861.90-13.49%0.00%2.15%8.418.418.241861860.00%
    SLRC02002082252201891.77-2.22%-14.09%-6.35%10.2511.9312.741921825.29%
    SUNS000631311181.35107.94%-9.92%14.41%13.9115.4413.501251185.93%
    TAXI8656641011211141.1819.80%-5.79%3.51%11.8612.5912.1613511220.18%
    TCAP1541611582062162252.304.85%4.17%2.22%12.8012.2912.022282184.44%
    TCRD0001041381451.4332.69%5.07%-1.38%11.9511.3711.531481396.21%
    TICC914989941121041.1319.15%-7.14%8.65%9.239.949.151071015.77%

    BDC Average     81.733.665.2511.9111.6110.98  8.30

    Year To Date BDC Newbie Stats 12-31
    The first Div/EPS uses the 2013 projection and the second ratio uses the 2014 projection

     

     


     Share Price 2013Div/2014Div/Q3-13PriceYTD Percent Change
    Company12-3112-31YieldEPSEPSEPSEPSNAVNAVPricePr+Div

    GarrisonGARS15.0013.8810.091.28109.381.40100.0015.110.92-7.47-0.47
    Monroe CapitalMRCC14.8312.2011.151.16117.241.33102.2614.010.87-17.73-8.56
    OFS CapitalOFS13.6912.8310.600.62219.351.05129.5214.460.89-6.283.65
    Stellus CapitalSCM16.3814.959.101.34101.491.4196.4514.571.03-8.73-0.43
    TCP CapitalTCPC14.7416.789.771.63100.611.6599.3915.061.1113.8423.61
    White HorseWHF14.8115.118.871.28104.691.32101.5215.091.002.0311.61

    Sector Average  9.93 125.46 104.86 0.97-4.065.04

    EPS Estimates and P/E Ratios 12-31 -13

     

     


     ; Earnings / ShareEarn. GrowthP/E Ratios14 EPS Range
    Co.201120122013201411-1212-1313-14201220132014HighLowSpread

    GARS00128140nana9.37%na10.849.911411400.71%
    MRCC020116133na480.00%14.66%61.0010.529.1714112512.03%
    OFS06562105na-4.62%69.35%19.7420.6912.221526384.76%
    SCM030134141na346.67%5.22%49.8311.1610.601451384.96%
    TCPC0181163165na-9.94%1.23%9.2710.2910.171751599.70%
    WHF032128132na300.00%3.13%47.2211.8011.4514411521.97%

    Average   0.00185.3517.1631.1812.5510.59
Back To Factoids' Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (2)
Track new comments
  • AdamDivy
    , contributor
    Comments (379) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the lists.
    4 Jan, 12:15 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Mattei
    , contributor
    Comments (164) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. Really enjoy your data focused articles.
    4 Jan, 11:37 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.