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MLP Midstream Stats 1-24-17

MLP Midstream 01-24-14

Yields are based on the Q4-13 distribution. Under the 'year to date' header, the change in the distribution is actually the change since Q4-13 - or the change over the last twelve months. The change in the target, EPS, DCF and CAGR is the percentage change in the consensus 2013 projection that has happened since the beginning of the year.


    Current Distrib/ Q4 Dist Dist/dcf Dist/dcf Year-to-Date Percent Change
    Price Quarter Yield 2014 2015 Price Pr+Dist EPS Target DCF Dist* cagr

Access (NYSE:ACMP) 56.05 0.5350 3.82 66.46 65.05 -0.94 -0.94 1.24 1.85 0.00 22.99 0.00
American (NYSE:AMID) 26.15 0.4525 6.92 87.44 79.04 -3.43 -3.43 0.00 -1.00 0.00 4.62 0.00
Atlas Pipelines (NYSE:APL) 33.84 0.6200 7.33 84.07 78.23 -3.45 -3.45 -6.67 -1.49 0.00 8.77 0.00
BlueKnight (NASDAQ:BKEP) 9.16 0.1225 5.35 47.57 47.57 7.64 7.64 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.89 0.00
Buckeye (NYSE:BPL) 72.20 1.0750 5.96 91.49 83.66 1.68 1.68 -0.54 0.88 0.00 3.61 0.00
Boardwalk (NYSE:BWP) 24.48 0.5325 8.70 107.58 104.41 -4.08 -4.08 -3.31 -0.63 0.00 0.00 0.00
Crestwood (NYSE:CMLP) 23.35 0.4050 6.94 87.57 83.08 -6.19 -6.19 8.93 -2.77 0.00 6.58 0.00
DCP Partners (NYSE:DPM) 49.07 0.7200 5.87 87.54 77.42 -2.54 -2.54 1.67 -0.16 0.00 5.88 0.00
El Paso (NYSE:EPB) 34.22 0.6500 7.60 100.78 91.55 -4.94 -4.94 -2.91 -3.79 0.00 12.07 0.00
Enbridge (NYSE:EEP) 28.93 0.5435 7.51 102.55 96.19 -3.15 -3.15 -3.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Enterprise (NYSE:EPD) 64.73 0.6900 4.26 66.51 62.30 -2.37 -2.37 0.00 0.61 0.00 6.15 0.00
Energy Trans (NYSE:ETP) 54.04 0.9050 6.70 77.19 84.38 -5.61 -5.61 2.88 0.52 0.00 1.26 0.00
EQT Mdstrm (NYSE:EQM) 62.73 0.4300 2.74 55.48 47.51 6.70 6.70 0.00 3.79 0.00 22.86 0.00
Exterran (EXLP) 29.74 0.5275 7.09 80.84 87.55 -1.62 -1.62 0.79 0.89 0.00 3.94 0.00
Genesis (NYSE:GEL) 53.52 0.5225 3.91 71.09 62.20 1.81 1.81 -1.60 0.90 0.00 10.58 0.00
Holly (NYSE:HEP) 33.51 0.4925 5.88 89.95 80.08 3.65 3.65 -1.69 0.00 0.00 6.49 0.00
Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMP) 82.40 1.3500 6.55 94.24 92.31 2.16 2.16 -1.47 -0.20 0.00 7.14 0.00
Magellan (NYSE:MMP) 63.95 0.5575 3.49 72.64 65.01 1.07 1.07 1.44 6.20 0.00 14.95 0.00
Mark West (NYSE:MWE) 68.14 0.8500 4.99 78.34 63.43 3.04 3.04 -3.09 -0.96 0.00 4.94 0.00
Targa (NYSE:NGLS) 50.61 0.7325 5.79 83.48 76.10 -3.23 -3.23 0.00 0.50 0.00 10.57 0.00
NuStar (NYSE:NS) 48.23 1.0950 9.08 114.96 95.01 -5.41 -5.41 -0.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
OneOK (NYSE:OKS) 53.21 0.7250 5.45 86.83 75.32 1.06 1.06 0.00 2.61 0.00 5.84 0.00
Oil Tanking (NYSE:OILT) 63.60 0.4450 2.80 63.12 62.46 2.46 2.46 0.33 0.52 0.00 18.67 0.00
Plains All-Am (NYSE:PAA) 51.73 0.6000 4.64 76.68 78.43 -0.08 -0.08 -1.87 0.00 0.00 10.60 0.00
Regency (NYSE:RGP) 26.65 0.4700 7.05 90.82 91.26 1.49 1.49 0.00 0.31 0.00 2.17 0.00
Spectra (NYSE:SEP) 43.72 0.5163 4.72 80.05 80.99 -3.59 -3.59 -1.56 0.00 0.00 5.37 0.00
Sunco (NYSE:SXL) 75.38 0.6300 3.34 54.66 56.38 -0.13 -0.13 -1.33 1.80 0.00 21.74 0.00
TCPipelines (NYSE:TCP) 46.56 0.8100 6.96 87.57 85.04 -3.86 -3.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.85 0.00
Tesoro (NYSE:TLLP) 53.49 0.5450 4.08 71.01 67.08 2.20 2.20 0.00 0.81 0.00 19.78 0.00
Transmontaigne (NYSE:TLP) 43.21 0.6500 6.02 74.29 73.65 1.67 1.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.56 0.00
Western (NYSE:WES) 60.23 0.5800 3.85 76.07 70.09 -2.37 -2.37 -2.16 -0.10 0.00 16.00 0.00
Williams (NYSE:WPZ) 50.87 0.8775 6.90 98.32 91.17 0.02 0.02 -0.47 0.00 0.00 8.67 0.00
Cross-Tex (XTEX) 28.20 0.3300 4.68 84.08 70.21 2.17 2.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Pipeline Average     5.67 81.55 76.49 -0.55 -0.55 -0.47 0.34 0.00 8.38  
Shipping
Navios (NYSE:NMM) 18.06 0.4425 9.80 101.14 98.33 -5.54 -5.54 6.85 5.69 0.00 0.00 0.00
Martin (NASDAQ:MMLP) 43.45 0.7825 7.20 89.94 72.79 1.52 1.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.62 0.00
TeeKay (NYSE:TGP) 41.32 0.6750 6.53 91.53 78.49 -3.25 -3.25 2.80 -0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shipping Average     7.85 97.14   -2.43 -2.43 3.22 1.75    

MidStream Average   5.85 82.61 77.05 -0.71 -0.71 -0.16 0.45    

The (price change only) Alerian MLP index [the ^AMZ - which includes other MLP sectors] is -0.69% year to date.
The Alerian MLP index ETN AMJ is -0.80% and with dividends is -0.80%.
The S&P500 index ETF SPY is -3.14% and with dividends is -3.14%.
The Russell 2000 index ETF IWM is -1.66% and with dividend is -1.66%.
With the 10yr Treasury @ 2.72% & the sector average yield [on Q4 distrib's] at 5.85% - the spread is 313 bps.
With the JNK yielding 5.91% - spread to the Lehman U.S. High Yield Index is -7 bps.
With the HYG yielding 5.78% - the spread to the iBOXX High Yield Index is 6 bps.

Click to enlarge

My CAGR projections are an attempt at the consensus brokerage projections based on the current numbers from several brokerages. I also use the price implied CAGR projection as a factor in setting my CAGRs. I also have a cap or maximum CAGR projection of 9.5%. All of the companies with CAGR projections over 8% have median analyst projections that are higher than my projections. RRRs is the acronym for Required Rate of Return. This is a metric that is needed to do Dividend Discount Model calculations. The price implied CAGR is one of those calculations. In simplistic terms - the RRR is a quantification of the risk attribute. Companies with more volatile business models have higher risk and thus have higher RRRs. My RRRs are based on debt ratings and debt metrics, along with assessments provided by Morgan Stanley and Wells and my historical DCF projection accuracy numbers. I have a minimum valuation of 9.7% and a maximum valuation of 13.0%. There is not a ton of thought that goes into that assessment. Basically all I have done is assess the BBB rated companies - where are the investment grade large cap midstreams - with a 10, while giving higher risk assessments to lower bond rated companies. TR - RRR is a simplistic buy or sell suggestion metric. Positive numbers suggest a buy and negative numbers suggest a sell.

Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations


Company Q4-13 Consensus Total Bonds DCF My Total Rtn Consensus Pr Impl Distribution
    Yield CAGR Return Ratings Accr RRRs - RRR Ratings CAGR /14 DCF
Large Cap Midstream
Buckeye BPL 5.96% 4.00% 9.96% BBB- 2.30 10.40 -0.44 2.6 4.44 91.49
Boardwalk BWP 8.70% 1.50% 10.20% BBB 3.20 10.70 -0.50 3.1 2.00 107.58
El Paso EPB 7.60% 2.00% 9.60% BBB- 1.20 10.30 -0.70 3.1 2.70 100.78
Enbridge EEP 7.51% 2.70% 10.21% BBB 2.40 10.50 -0.29 2.9 2.99 102.55
Enterprise EPD 4.26% 6.70% 10.96% BBB+ 1.20 9.70 1.26 1.6 5.44 66.51
Energy Trans ETP 6.70% 4.00% 10.70% BBB- 3.00 10.70 -0.00 2.3 4.00 77.19
Kinder Morgan KMP 6.55% 4.70% 11.25% BBB 1.00 10.00 1.25 2.5 3.45 94.24
Magellan MMP 3.49% 8.80% 12.29% BBB 1.00 10.00 2.29 2.4 6.51 72.64
NuStar NS 9.08% 1.50% 10.58% BB+ 4.00 11.50 -0.92 3.1 2.42 114.96
OneOK OKS 5.45% 6.70% 12.15% BBB 1.50 10.50 1.65 2.1 5.05 86.83
Plains All-Am PAA 4.64% 8.50% 13.14% BBB 1.00 10.00 3.14 1.8 5.36 76.68
Williams WPZ 6.90% 5.40% 12.30% BBB 3.00 11.00 1.30 2.2 4.10 98.32

Average   6.40% 4.71% 11.11%         2.48

Company Q4-13 Consensus Total Bonds DCF My Total Rtn Consensus Pr Impl Distrib
    Yield CAGR Return Ratings Accr RRRs - RRR Ratings CAGR / DCF
Small Cap Midstream
BlueKnight BKEP 5.35% 8.50% 13.85% none 4.00 13.50 0.35 3.3 8.15 47.57
Genesis GEL 3.91% 8.70% 12.61% BB- 2.70 11.80 0.81 2.2 7.89 71.09
Holly HEP 5.88% 6.00% 11.88% BB 1.30 11.20 0.68 3.1 5.32 89.95
Oil Tanking OILT 2.80% 7.70% 10.50% none 2.00 10.50 -0.00 2.4 7.70 63.12
Spectra SEP 4.72% 6.80% 11.52% BBB 2.20 10.50 1.02 3.1 5.78 80.05
Sunco SXL 3.34% 8.90% 12.24% BBB- 1.00 10.00 2.24 2.6 6.66 54.66
TCPipelines TCP 6.96% 3.00% 9.96% BBB 1.00 10.00 -0.04 3.6 3.04 87.57
Tesoro TLLP 4.08% 8.50% 12.58% BB- 1.20 10.00 2.58 1.8 5.92 71.01
Transmontaigne TLP 6.02% 3.00% 9.02% none 1.20 10.00 -0.98 1.9 3.98 74.29

Average   4.78% 6.79% 11.57%         2.67

Company Q4-13 Consensus Total Bonds DCF My Total Rtn Consensus Pr Impl Distrib
    Yield CAGR Return Ratings Accr RRRs - RRR Ratings CAGR / DCF
Gathering & Processing
Access ACMP 3.82% 9.60% 13.42% BB- 1.50 12.00 1.42 1.7 8.18 66.46
American AMID 6.92% 4.50% 11.42% none 5.00 12.50 -1.08 2.5 5.58 87.44
Atlas Pipelines APL 7.33% 9.10% 16.43% B+ 5.00 13.50 2.93 1.8 6.17 84.07
Crestwood CMLP 6.94% 5.00% 11.94% B- 3.70 12.50 -0.56 1.9 5.56 87.57
DCP Partners DPM 5.87% 6.70% 12.57% BBB- 2.70 11.50 1.07 1.9 5.63 87.54
EQT Mdstrm EQM 2.74% 9.50% 12.24% none 2.00 11.20 1.04 1.7 8.46 55.48
Exterran EXLP 7.09% 3.00% 10.09% B- 2.20 11.50 -1.41 2.6 4.41 80.84
Mark West MWE 4.99% 8.70% 13.69% BB 3.20 12.50 1.19 1.5 7.51 78.34
Targa NGLS 5.79% 6.90% 12.69% BB 1.70 12.20 0.49 2.3 6.41 83.48
Regency RGP 7.05% 4.00% 11.05% BB- 3.20 12.00 -0.95 2.8 4.95 90.82
Western WES 3.85% 9.30% 13.15% BBB- 1.70 11.20 1.95 1.9 7.35 76.07
Cross-Tex XTEX 4.68% 8.50% 13.18% B+ 4.00 13.50 -0.32 2.4 8.82 84.08

Average   5.59% 7.07% 12.66%         2.08

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Disclosure: I am long CMLP, DPM, EPD, GEL, KMP, MMP, MWE, WES, .

Additional disclosure: I also have investments in PAGP, TRGP and WMB -- which are the general partners of PPA, NGLS and ACMP/WPZ